Canola pressured by lower veg oil in pre-USDA report trade

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Published: November 7, 2013

Canola edged lower on Thursday pressured by technical selling as the January contract fell below the 30-day moving average.

January canola closed at $490.10, down 60 cents.

Weaker soy oil futures also weighed on canola, but soybeans edged higher thanks to strong weekly exports of the seed and meal.

Soy oil was pressured because the U.S. Food and Drug Administration proposed banning artificial trans fats, often made from soy oil, in processed food.

On the other hand, moves in the past to limit trans fats have helped demand for canola oil.

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Canola pressured by lower veg oil in pre-USDA report trade

Australian crops to surpass 10-year averages

Australian farmers are forecast to grow slightly more canola and barley this year, while wheat production may dip, according to the latest estimates from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).

The USDA reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 1.037 million tonnes (old and new crop years combined), near the high end of trade estimates for 800,000 to 1.1 million, Reuters reported.

Soy meal and soy oil exports were also strong.

Weekly corn exports also exceeded expectations but futures did not rise because of expectations that Friday’s USDA supply and demand report will raise the corn crop size forecast.

Hard spring and winter wheat edged lower with traders reluctant to make significant moves ahead of the USDA report.

Weekly wheat exports were in line with expectations.

Here are the average of analysts’ estimates in a Reuters poll for crop production and stocks ahead of the big USDA report, which will be the first since September.

U.S. corn production: a record 14.003 billion bushels, up from the USDA forecast in September for 13.843 billion.

U.S. corn ending stocks: 2.029 billion bu., up from the USDA September forecast for 1.855 billion.

U.S soybean crop: 3.221 billion bu., topping USDA's September forecast of 3.149 billion. Ending stocks 172 million bu., up from 150 million in September.
Wheat ending stocks: 519 million bushels, the smallest in six years and down from 561 million in September.

Watch for our coverage of the USDA report at Producer.com and our Twitter feeds, @darcemcmillan and @westernproducer.

ICE Futures milling wheat, durum and barley did not trade but wheat was revised down by the exchange after the close of trade.

 

ICE Futures Canada, dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2013       481.60       -0.60       -0.12%

Canola Jan 2014       490.10       -0.60       -0.12%

Canola Mar 2014       498.50       -0.50       -0.10%

Canola May 2014       504.80       -0.40       -0.08%

Canola Jul 2014       510.40       -0.70       -0.14%

 

Milling Wheat Dec 2013       219.00       -1.00       -0.45%

Milling Wheat Mar 2014       230.00       -1.00       -0.43%

Milling Wheat May 2014       238.00       -1.00       -0.42%

 

Durum Wheat Dec 2013       247.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Mar 2014       253.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2014       257.00       unch       0.00%

 

Barley Dec 2013       152.00       unch       0.00%

Barley Mar 2014       154.00       unch       0.00%

Barley May 2014       155.00       unch       0.00%

 

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Nov 2013       1278.75       +15.75       +1.25%

Soybeans Jan 2014       1266.5       +11.5       +0.92%

Soybeans Mar 2014       1248       +7.5       +0.60%

Soybeans May 2014       1234.25       +2.75       +0.22%

Soybeans Jul 2014       1230.25       +1.75       +0.14%

Soybeans Aug 2014       1215.5       unch       0.00%

 

Soybean Meal Dec 2013       403.8       +7       +1.76%

Soybean Meal Jan 2014       397.1       +7.2       +1.85%

Soybean Meal Mar 2014       386.2       +3.8       +0.99%

 

Soybean Oil Dec 2013       40.74       -0.4       -0.97%

Soybean Oil Jan 2014       41.05       -0.39       -0.94%

Soybean Oil Mar 2014       41.45       -0.36       -0.86%

 

Corn Dec 2013       420.5       -0.75       -0.18%

Corn Mar 2014       431.5       unch       0.00%

Corn May 2014       440       +0.5       +0.11%

Corn Jul 2014       446.75       +0.25       +0.06%

Corn Sep 2014       452.75       unch       0.00%

 

Oats Dec 2013       339       -4.5       -1.31%

Oats Mar 2014       314.5       -2.25       -0.71%

Oats May 2014       308       -0.75       -0.24%

Oats Jul 2014       306       +0.25       +0.08%

Oats Sep 2014       306.75       +0.25       +0.08%

 

Wheat Dec 2013       653       -0.25       -0.04%

Wheat Mar 2014       663.75       +1       +0.15%

Wheat May 2014       669.75       +1.5       +0.22%

Wheat Jul 2014       668.75       +1.5       +0.22%

Wheat Sep 2014       677.75       +1.5       +0.22%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 2013       709.5       -2.75       -0.39%

Spring Wheat Mar 2014       720.25       -2.5       -0.35%

Spring Wheat May 2014       727       -2.75       -0.38%

Spring Wheat Jul 2014       732.75       -1.75       -0.24%

Spring Wheat Sep 2014       735.25       unch       0.00%

 

Kansas City

KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013       712.5       -4       -0.56%

KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014       715.25       -4.5       -0.63%

KCBT Red Wheat May 2014       714.5       -3.75       -0.52%

KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014       706.75       -2.25       -0.32%

KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014       715.5       -0.5       -0.07%

 

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York fell 60 cents at $94.20 US per barrel.

The Bank of Canada noon rate for the loonie was 95.77 cents US, down from 95.98 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0442 Cdn.

In a surprise move the European Central Bank trimmed interest rates. That lifted the U.S. dollar and weighed on commodity prices and natural resource stocks on he TSX.

Markets also retreated on profit taking after the Dow’s big move up on Wednesday.

Twitter’s IPO drew a lot of attention.

In unofficial tallies —

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down 86.21 points, or 0.64 percent, at 13,294.20.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 151.30 points, or 0.96 percent, at 15,595.58.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was down 23.18 points, or 1.31 percent, at 1,747.31.

The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 74.61 points, or 1.90 percent, at 3,857.33.

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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