A bullishly low canola production estimate from Statistics Canada wasn’t enough to save November canola futures from swooning beneath $420 per tonne Thursday.
That had some analysts scratching their heads and trying to figure out the significance of canola failing to rise with most other North American crop futures.
“I’m really surprised at the weakness in canola today,” said Errol Anderson of Pro Market Communications.
“The report was bullish, but the U.S. card trumps ours.”
That U.S. card is carrying an image of a huge U.S. soybean crop coming to market and a flaccid world vegetable oil market.
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Canola futures fell $4.60 per tonne, which is more than 10 cents per bushel, even though Statistics Canada predicted prairie farmers will grow only 13.9 million tonnes of the crop, far beneath 2013’s 17.96 and almost exactly 2012’s production-challenged 13.87.
“It’s not a good response,” said Anderson about canola futures failing to rise on bullish news.
“It suggests we haven’t seen the low yet.”
Chuck Penner of LeftField Commodity Research said the 13.9 number is close to what he was guessing StatsCan would find, but noted that most traders expect the agency to bump up the estimates in following reports. Right now most traders guess canola production will end up at around 14.5 million tonnes because StatsCan has a record of underestimating crops.
The StatsCan outlook was more bullish for oats and barley, both of which were verified to have the low stocks many in the marketplace believe those commodities will have. That should support feedgrain prices.
Penner said the flax number is odd because it shows no lost acreage to flooding and saturation. If Canada truly does produce 900,000 tonnes of flax, “the supplies will be heavier” than in recent years.
StatsCan is predicting spring wheat production of 19.97 million tonnes, 4.93 million tonnes of durum, 2.78 million tonnes of winter wheat, 7.16 million tonnes of barley, 3.56 million tonnes of peas, 2.64 million tonnes of oats and 1.93 million tonnes of lentils.
Among the acreage-volatile small crops, mustard is estimated at 222,300 tonnes, canaryseed at 145,700 tonnes, chickpeas at 142,500 and sunflowers at 78,200 tonnes.
U.S. stock markets were higher, with the Standard and Poors 500 at a record high, as continued evidence of a U.S. housing recovery was reported during the day.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 14Â Â Â 419.60Â Â Â -4.60Â Â Â -1.08%
Canola Mar 15Â Â Â 430.00Â Â Â -3.90Â Â Â -0.90%
Canola May 15Â Â Â 430.10Â Â Â -3.10Â Â Â -0.72%
Canola Jul 15Â Â Â 429.50Â Â Â -2.30Â Â Â -0.53%
Milling Wheat Oct 14Â Â Â 202.00Â Â Â +1.00Â Â Â +0.50%
Milling Wheat Dec 14Â Â Â 207.00Â Â Â +1.00Â Â Â +0.49%
Milling Wheat Mar 15Â Â Â 215.00Â Â Â +1.00Â Â Â +0.47%
Durum Wheat Oct 14   250.00   unch   unch
Durum Wheat Dec 14   256.00   unch   unch
Durum Wheat Mar 15   257.00   unch   unch
Barley Oct 14   135.00   unch   unch
Barley Dec 14   137.00   unch   unch
Barley Mar 15   138.00   unch   unch
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Sep 14Â Â Â 1136.25Â Â Â +16.5Â Â Â +1.47%
Soybeans Nov 14Â Â Â 1038.25Â Â Â +0.25Â Â Â +0.02%
Soybeans Jan 15Â Â Â 1045.25Â Â Â -0.5Â Â Â -0.05%
Soybeans Mar 15Â Â Â 1052.25Â Â Â -0.25Â Â Â -0.02%
Soybeans May 15Â Â Â 1057.75Â Â Â -0.75Â Â Â -0.07%
Soybean Meal Sep 14Â Â Â 413.8Â Â Â +11.2Â Â Â +2.78%
Soybean Meal Oct 14Â Â Â 356.9Â Â Â +3.8Â Â Â +1.08%
Soybean Meal Dec 14Â Â Â 346.5Â Â Â +2.3Â Â Â +0.67%
Soybean Oil Sep 14Â Â Â 32.78Â Â Â -0.08Â Â Â -0.24%
Soybean Oil Oct 14Â Â Â 32.86Â Â Â -0.09Â Â Â -0.27%
Soybean Oil Dec 14Â Â Â 33.11Â Â Â -0.11Â Â Â -0.33%
Corn Sep 14Â Â Â 362.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.75Â Â Â +0.76%
Corn Dec 14Â Â Â 369Â Â Â +1.5Â Â Â +0.41%
Corn Mar 15Â Â Â 381.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.25Â Â Â +0.33%
Corn Jul 15Â Â Â 396.5Â Â Â +1.25Â Â Â +0.32%
Oats Sep 14Â Â Â 376.25Â Â Â +13.25Â Â Â +3.65%
Oats Dec 14Â Â Â 348.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +8.75Â Â Â +2.58%
Oats Mar 15Â Â Â 331.5Â Â Â +8Â Â Â +2.47%
Oats May 15Â Â Â 322.5Â Â Â +7Â Â Â +2.22%
Oats Jul 15Â Â Â 318.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +5.5Â Â Â +1.76%
Wheat Sep 14Â Â Â 546.25Â Â Â +6.75Â Â Â +1.25%
Wheat Dec 14Â Â Â 555.5Â Â Â +5.5Â Â Â +1.00%
Wheat Mar 15Â Â Â 572.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +3.5Â Â Â +0.62%
Wheat May 15Â Â Â 582Â Â Â +2Â Â Â +0.34%
Wheat Jul 15Â Â Â 589.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +2Â Â Â +0.34%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 14Â Â Â 615.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +5.5Â Â Â +0.90%
Spring Wheat Dec 14Â Â Â 623Â Â Â +4.25Â Â Â +0.69%
Spring Wheat Mar 15Â Â Â 634Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.75Â Â Â +0.44%
Spring Wheat May 15Â Â Â 642.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +3Â Â Â +0.47%
Spring Wheat Jul 15Â Â Â 650Â Â Â +3.25Â Â Â +0.50%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 14Â Â Â 622Â Â Â +3.25Â Â Â +0.53%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 14Â Â Â 632.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.5Â Â Â +0.24%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 15Â Â Â 640.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.75Â Â Â +0.12%
Hard Red Wheat May 15   643.75      unch   unch
Hard Red Wheat Jul 15Â Â Â 634Â Â Â -0.25Â Â Â -0.04%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 51 cents at $93.96 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 91.34 cents US, down from 91.37 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0948 Cdn.
