Canola oil fares better than soy oil in market crash

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Published: January 4, 2016

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Weakness in China knocked some stuffing out of world markets Monday as investors bet against Chinese import demand expanding any time soon.

Soybean oil was a victim of the slump in Chinese stocks and world stock markets, falling about two percent in Chicago in the Monday session.

Canola, a crop that relies mostly upon its oil value for its price, followed suit, falling $4.60 per tonne, or over 10 cents per bushel, to $481.90 for the March contract.

That, however, was much less of a decline than for soybean oil, revealing the simultaneous surge in the value of the U.S. dollar, in which soybean oil futures are denominated.

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Canola futures are listed in Canadian dollar terms.

Wheat, corn and oats also fell, showing overall weakness in crop commodity demand. In percentage terms, the cereals fell about as much as soybean oil.

Some of that weakness was due to continuing weakness in U.S. corn exports, something that was not alleviated by the weak Chinese data.

So far this crop year, U.S. corn exports are running over 20 percent lower than at this time last year, and exports for the most recent week U.S. Department of Agriculture reported are 40 percent below last year rates.

U.S. wheat exports are also lagging, but not by as much.

The grim mood in the equity markets isn’t helping kindle enthusiasm in commodities. The Dow 30’s over-400 point drop Monday gave it its worst first-trading-day-of-the-year result since 1932, during the Great Depression.

China is the main headline-grabber, but escalating tensions in the Middle East aren’t helping. Saudi Arabia and Iran are allowing some of their tensions out into the open, creating tension on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia has ordered Iranian diplomats to leave the country, following attacks on the Saudi embassy in Tehran, which followed the Saudi execution of an Iranian cleric.

The two countries are backing opposite sides in a number of present Middle Eastern conflicts, including those in Iraq and Syria.

Contact ed.white@producer.com

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 28 cents to US$36.76 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US71.59 cents, down from 72.25 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3969.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jan 2016 473.80 -2.70 -0.57%
Canola Mar 2016 481.90 -4.60 -0.95%
Canola May 2016 487.20 -3.40 -0.69%
Canola Jul 2016 489.90 -2.10 -0.43%
Canola Nov 2016 486.50 -1.90 -0.39%

Milling Wheat Mar 2016 230.00 -7.00 -2.95%
Milling Wheat May 2016 234.00 -7.00 -2.90%
Milling Wheat Jul 2016 239.00 -6.00 -2.45%

Durum Wheat Mar 2016 316.00 -2.00 -0.63%
Durum Wheat May 2016 324.00 -2.00 -0.61%
Durum Wheat Jul 2016 324.00 -2.00 -0.61%

Barley Mar 2016 184.00 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2016 190.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2016 192.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans Jan 2016 864.5 -6.75 -0.77%
Soybeans Mar 2016 856 -8.25 -0.95%
Soybeans May 2016 860.75 -8.75 -1.01%
Soybeans Jul 2016 867.75 -9 -1.03%
Soybeans Aug 2016 870.5 -9 -1.02%
Soybeans Sep 2016 870 -9.5 -1.08%

Soybean Meal Jan 2016 263.2 -1.1 -0.42%
Soybean Meal Mar 2016 264.4 -1.1 -0.41%
Soybean Meal May 2016 267.5 -1.5 -0.56%

Soybean Oil Jan 2016 29.93 -0.62 -2.03%
Soybean Oil Mar 2016 30.12 -0.63 -2.05%
Soybean Oil May 2016 30.34 -0.62 -2.00%
Corn Mar 2016 351.5 -7.25 -2.02%
Corn May 2016 357.5 -7 -1.92%
Corn Jul 2016 363.75 -6.75 -1.82%
Corn Sep 2016 369 -6.25 -1.67%
Corn Dec 2016 377 -6 -1.57%

Oats Mar 2016 210.5 -6.75 -3.11%
Oats May 2016 211.5 -8 -3.64%
Oats Jul 2016 216.25 -7.25 -3.24%
Oats Sep 2016 221.75 -8.5 -3.69%
Oats Dec 2016 218 -10 -4.39%

Wheat Mar 2016 458.25 -11.75 -2.50%
Wheat May 2016 464.5 -12 -2.52%
Wheat Jul 2016 472.25 -11 -2.28%
Wheat Sep 2016 482 -10.25 -2.08%
Wheat Dec 2016 496.5 -11 -2.17%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Mar 2016 484.75 -8.5 -1.72%
Spring Wheat May 2016 494.25 -7.75 -1.54%
Spring Wheat Jul 2016 504.75 -7.75 -1.51%
Spring Wheat Sep 2016 517.75 -6.5 -1.24%
Spring Wheat Dec 2016 534.25 -6.25 -1.16%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 454.25 -14.25 -3.04%
Hard Red Wheat May 2016 464.5 -14.25 -2.98%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016 475 -13.75 -2.81%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016 489.75 -13.25 -2.63%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016 511.5 -12.25 -2.34%

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Ed White

Ed White

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