Canola futures closed up fractionally on Wednesday, well off the gains that they posted early in the day.
November canola closed at $485.0, up 50 cents.
Rising palm future provided early strength to the oilseed complex, particularly soy oil.
Palm has risen on stronger than expected exports and a belief that excess moisture in Malaysia will reduce production growth in coming months.
Weekly data for Malaysian exports will come out tomorrow.
Traders are eager to get any information to trade on after the drought of reports caused by the U.S. government shutdown earlier this month. They will get some information Thursday morning when the USDA releases grain export data for several weeks. The expectation is for robust sales, so if the numbers disappoint prices could fall.
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A Reuters poll of traders shows the expectation for three weeks of exports are:
Wheat 1.5-2.0 million tonnes,
Corn 1.9-2.5 million tonnes,
Soybeans 2.4-3.0 million tonnes,
Soy meal 800,000-1.1 million tonnes
Soy oil 40,000-160,000 tonnes.
Oilseed values have held on better than corn thanks to signs of good exports of U.S. soybeans and Canadian canola.
Corn was weighed down today by the advancing U.S. harvest and U.S. farmer sales that caused hedging pressure. Analysts think there will be a significant increase in average yield and total production when USDA issues its Nov. 8 supply and demand reports.
Falling corn weighed on wheat. Downward pressure also came from India’s decision to cut its wheat export floor price by 13 percent to $260 per tonne plus taxes.
The government believes that will make Indian wheat competitive with supplies from the Black Sea region pushing more low protein wheat onto the world market.
India needs to sell some of its burdensome stocks to avoid spoilage and to make room for what is expected to be a bumper harvest thanks to good monsoon rain.
The size of Australia’s wheat crop remains up for conjecture. Crop forecaster Lanworth today raised its outlook by two percent to 25.294 million tonnes, noting good soil moisture in Western Australia, Southern Australia and Victoria provinces.
Last week Commonwealth Bank of Australia cut its forecast by 1.6 million tonnes to 23.6 million tonnes. The official government forecast in September was about 24.5 million tonnes. Recent frosts have damaged crops in some pockets.
The other weather problems affecting wheat that we mentioned in the past in the Black Sea region, Argentina and China that helped wheat move higher recently are now all moderating. Rallies need a constant stream of bullish news to feed on and the bullish news for wheat has largely disappeared.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 485.00Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.50Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.10%
Canola Jan 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 495.30Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.30Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.06%
Canola Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 503.40Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.10Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.02%
Canola May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 510.00Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.10Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.02%
Canola Jul 2014      515.70      unch      0.00%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 229.00Â Â Â Â Â Â -2.00Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.87%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 237.00Â Â Â Â Â Â -2.00Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.84%
Milling Wheat May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 244.00Â Â Â Â Â Â -2.00Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.81%
Durum Wheat Dec 2013      247.00      unch      0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014      253.00      unch      0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2014      257.00      unch      0.00%
Barley Dec 2013      152.00      unch      0.00%
Barley Mar 2014      154.00      unch      0.00%
Barley May 2014      155.00      unch      0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Nov 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 1287.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +8.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.66%
Soybeans Jan 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 1276.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +5.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.45%
Soybeans Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 1260.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +6Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.48%
Soybeans May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 1247Â Â Â Â Â Â +5.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.42%
Soybeans Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 1242.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +5.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.44%
Soybeans Aug 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 1231.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +4.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.39%
Soybean Meal Dec 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 411.8Â Â Â Â Â Â +1Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.24%
Soybean Meal Jan 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 402.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.6Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.15%
Soybean Meal Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 391.1Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.2Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.05%
Soybean Oil Dec 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 41.62Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.65Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.59%
Soybean Oil Jan 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 41.9Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.64Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.55%
Soybean Oil Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 42.27Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.63Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.51%
Corn Dec 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 430.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.41%
Corn Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 441.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -2.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.56%
Corn May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 450Â Â Â Â Â Â -2.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.61%
Corn Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 457.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -2.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.60%
Corn Sep 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 463.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -3Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.64%
Oats Dec 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 333.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +7.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.30%
Oats Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 316.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +8.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.84%
Oats May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 313Â Â Â Â Â Â +6.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.04%
Oats Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 307.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.24%
Oats Sep 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 309Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.24%
Wheat Dec 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 675Â Â Â Â Â Â -6.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.92%
Wheat Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 686.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -6Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.87%
Wheat May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 692Â Â Â Â Â Â -5Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.72%
Wheat Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 685.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -4.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.62%
Wheat Sep 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 693.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -3.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.50%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 732Â Â Â Â Â Â -4.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.61%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 742.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -4.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.64%
Spring Wheat May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 749Â Â Â Â Â Â -4.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.60%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 752.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -4.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.63%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 751.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -5Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.66%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 747.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -4Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.53%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 748.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -4Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.53%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 744Â Â Â Â Â Â -4Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.53%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 725Â Â Â Â Â Â -3.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.45%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 731.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -2.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.34%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped $1.43 at $96.77 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 95.64 cents US, down from 95.74 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0456 Cdn.
The U.S. Federal Reserve today said it would continue its $85 billion a month stimulus program because the U.S. economy and employment levels are growing more slowly than expected.
In early tallies —
The TSX composite rose slightly by 14.72 points or 0.11 percent to 13,455.33.
U.S. stock market indexes were generally down a little.
The Dow fell 61.59 points or 0.39 percent to 15,618.76
The Nasdaq composite was down 21.72 points or 0.55 percent at 3,930.32.
The S&P 500 fell 8.64 points or 0.49 percent to 1,763.31.