Canola futures closed up fractionally on Wednesday, well off the gains that they posted early in the day.
November canola closed at $485.0, up 50 cents.
Rising palm future provided early strength to the oilseed complex, particularly soy oil.
Palm has risen on stronger than expected exports and a belief that excess moisture in Malaysia will reduce production growth in coming months.
Weekly data for Malaysian exports will come out tomorrow.
Traders are eager to get any information to trade on after the drought of reports caused by the U.S. government shutdown earlier this month. They will get some information Thursday morning when the USDA releases grain export data for several weeks. The expectation is for robust sales, so if the numbers disappoint prices could fall.
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A Reuters poll of traders shows the expectation for three weeks of exports are:
Wheat 1.5-2.0 million tonnes,
Corn 1.9-2.5 million tonnes,
Soybeans 2.4-3.0 million tonnes,
Soy meal 800,000-1.1 million tonnes
Soy oil 40,000-160,000 tonnes.
Oilseed values have held on better than corn thanks to signs of good exports of U.S. soybeans and Canadian canola.
Corn was weighed down today by the advancing U.S. harvest and U.S. farmer sales that caused hedging pressure. Analysts think there will be a significant increase in average yield and total production when USDA issues its Nov. 8 supply and demand reports.
Falling corn weighed on wheat. Downward pressure also came from India’s decision to cut its wheat export floor price by 13 percent to $260 per tonne plus taxes.
The government believes that will make Indian wheat competitive with supplies from the Black Sea region pushing more low protein wheat onto the world market.
India needs to sell some of its burdensome stocks to avoid spoilage and to make room for what is expected to be a bumper harvest thanks to good monsoon rain.
The size of Australia’s wheat crop remains up for conjecture. Crop forecaster Lanworth today raised its outlook by two percent to 25.294 million tonnes, noting good soil moisture in Western Australia, Southern Australia and Victoria provinces.
Last week Commonwealth Bank of Australia cut its forecast by 1.6 million tonnes to 23.6 million tonnes. The official government forecast in September was about 24.5 million tonnes. Recent frosts have damaged crops in some pockets.
The other weather problems affecting wheat that we mentioned in the past in the Black Sea region, Argentina and China that helped wheat move higher recently are now all moderating. Rallies need a constant stream of bullish news to feed on and the bullish news for wheat has largely disappeared.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2013 485.00 +0.50 +0.10%
Canola Jan 2014 495.30 +0.30 +0.06%
Canola Mar 2014 503.40 +0.10 +0.02%
Canola May 2014 510.00 +0.10 +0.02%
Canola Jul 2014 515.70 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013 229.00 -2.00 -0.87%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 237.00 -2.00 -0.84%
Milling Wheat May 2014 244.00 -2.00 -0.81%
Durum Wheat Dec 2013 247.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 253.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2014 257.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2013 152.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2014 154.00 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2014 155.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Nov 2013 1287.5 +8.5 +0.66%
Soybeans Jan 2014 1276.5 +5.75 +0.45%
Soybeans Mar 2014 1260.75 +6 +0.48%
Soybeans May 2014 1247 +5.25 +0.42%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1242.5 +5.5 +0.44%
Soybeans Aug 2014 1231.5 +4.75 +0.39%
Soybean Meal Dec 2013 411.8 +1 +0.24%
Soybean Meal Jan 2014 402.5 +0.6 +0.15%
Soybean Meal Mar 2014 391.1 -0.2 -0.05%
Soybean Oil Dec 2013 41.62 +0.65 +1.59%
Soybean Oil Jan 2014 41.9 +0.64 +1.55%
Soybean Oil Mar 2014 42.27 +0.63 +1.51%
Corn Dec 2013 430.25 -1.75 -0.41%
Corn Mar 2014 441.75 -2.5 -0.56%
Corn May 2014 450 -2.75 -0.61%
Corn Jul 2014 457.25 -2.75 -0.60%
Corn Sep 2014 463.5 -3 -0.64%
Oats Dec 2013 333.25 +7.5 +2.30%
Oats Mar 2014 316.5 +8.75 +2.84%
Oats May 2014 313 +6.25 +2.04%
Oats Jul 2014 307.5 +0.75 +0.24%
Oats Sep 2014 309 +0.75 +0.24%
Wheat Dec 2013 675 -6.25 -0.92%
Wheat Mar 2014 686.5 -6 -0.87%
Wheat May 2014 692 -5 -0.72%
Wheat Jul 2014 685.25 -4.25 -0.62%
Wheat Sep 2014 693.5 -3.5 -0.50%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2013 732 -4.5 -0.61%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 742.75 -4.75 -0.64%
Spring Wheat May 2014 749 -4.5 -0.60%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 752.25 -4.75 -0.63%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014 751.25 -5 -0.66%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 747.75 -4 -0.53%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 748.75 -4 -0.53%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 744 -4 -0.53%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 725 -3.25 -0.45%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014 731.25 -2.5 -0.34%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped $1.43 at $96.77 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 95.64 cents US, down from 95.74 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0456 Cdn.
The U.S. Federal Reserve today said it would continue its $85 billion a month stimulus program because the U.S. economy and employment levels are growing more slowly than expected.
In early tallies —
The TSX composite rose slightly by 14.72 points or 0.11 percent to 13,455.33.
U.S. stock market indexes were generally down a little.
The Dow fell 61.59 points or 0.39 percent to 15,618.76
The Nasdaq composite was down 21.72 points or 0.55 percent at 3,930.32.
The S&P 500 fell 8.64 points or 0.49 percent to 1,763.31.
