Canola drifted lower on Thursday in light trade pressured by a slightly stronger loonie and the weight of a huge crop.
January canola closed at $490.50 per tonne, down $2.50, mainly due to a slightly stronger loonie.
We’ll get a better picture of just how big the Canadian canola crop is next week when Statistics Canada produces its November crop production report. It seems the majority of traders have estimates of 16.5 to 17.5 million tonnes, but there are estimates as high as 18 million although traders expect Statistics Canada will not go that high.
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Malaysian palm oil futures closed up a little mostly on a weaker local currency.
Traders are awaiting news from the Indonesian Palm Oil Conference and Price Outlook today and Friday.
Traders expect a positive outlook for palm oil, with expectation that output from top producers Indonesia and Malaysia will undershoot estimates this year, Reuters reported.
U.S. markets were closed for their Thanksgiving so there was little news to trade on.
The CWB today updated its Pool Return Outlook for 2013-14 Winter Pool and Futures Choice Winter Pool. Wheat returns range from $1 to $2 per tonne lower. Durum returns range from $16 to $19 per tonne higher. Canola returns are unchanged.
The PRO for the winter pool No. 1 CWRS 12.5 percent protein is $285 at port, down from $287 in the last PRO Nov. 7.
No. 1 durum 12.5 percent protein is $309 per tonne at port, up from $290 in the last PRO.
The full list of PROs is at www.cwb.ca.
Although down from last month, wheat in recent days was supported by thoughts that North American prices have fallen enough to generate new exports.
Also, Russian prices have risen on lack of high quality wheat, government plans to replenish state stocks after last year’s drought and delayed harvesting.
Russia, officially expected to export about 20 million tonnes of grain this 2013-14 marketing year, had sold 13.4 million tonnes, including 10.5 million tonnes of wheat, as of Nov. 20, according to IKAR statistics in a Reuters story.
Wheat is also supported by the latest government estimate of Argentina’s wheat crop, which is 8.5 million tonnes. The last U.S. Department of Agriculture report put Argentina’s crop at 11 million tonnes.
On the other hand, global wheat stocks are expected to rise this year.
The International Grains Council today updated its wheat production outlook to 698 million tonnes, up two million from the last report. It sees consumption at 692 million tonnes, resulting in a six million tonne increase in year end stocks, to 181 million tonnes.
The IGC put 2013-14 global corn production at 950 million tonnes, up two million from its last report, due mainly to better than expected results in the U.S..
Year end corn stocks are seen rising 21 percent, year-on-year, to 157 million tonnes.
South American soybean crop developments are a negative factor in oilseed markets. It has been clear for a while that Brazil and Argentina will seed a record large area to the oilseed.
Today the Buenos Aires exchange pegged Argentina’s 2013-14 soybean planting area is seen at 20.45 million hectares, up 250,000 hectares from a previous estimate and up from 19.7 million last year.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jan 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 490.50Â Â Â Â Â Â -2.50Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.51%
Canola Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 499.90Â Â Â Â Â Â -2.50Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.50%
Canola May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 507.10Â Â Â Â Â Â -2.50Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.49%
Canola Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 512.90Â Â Â Â Â Â -2.10Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.41%
Canola Nov 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 518.10Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.10Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.21%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013      213.00      unch      0.00%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014      224.00      unch      0.00%
Milling Wheat May 2014      234.00      unch      0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2013      247.00      unch      0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014      253.00      unch      0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2014      257.00      unch      0.00%
Barley Dec 2013      152.00      unch      0.00%
Barley Mar 2014      154.00      unch      0.00%
Barley May 2014      155.00      unch      0.00%
U.S. markets were closed.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 94.40 cents US, up from 94.38 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0593 Cdn.
West Texas crude oil did not trade but Brent oil was lower on rising U.S. stocks and production. The U.S. crude output last week topped eight million barrels per day for the first time since January 1989.
In late afternoon trade, the TSX composite was up slightly, 15.05 points or 0.11 percent at 13,377.10. There was carry over support from reports yesterday that showed U.S. consumer sentiment improving and fewer weekly U.S. claims for unemployment benefits.
