Canola little changed over week as market awaits StatsCan report

Canola futures closed the week on an up note after spending much of the morning slightly lower on loonie strength.

The January contract closed up $1.60 or 0.3 percent on the day.

For the week, the contract rose just $1.10 or 0.2 percent.

Canola held steady this week even as the trade, on average, forecasts Statistics Canada next week will peg the crop at a record 18.8 million tonnes, up from 18.38 million last year.

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The StatsCan report this year, issued Tuesday, will dogged by the fact that the survey was conducted in late October and early November when a lot of grain was still out in the field.

ALBERTA CROP REPORT

As of Nov. 29, Alberta producers combined 90 percent of all crops, with seven percent in swath and three percent standing. These will likely be left until the spring.

About 13 percent of canola has not been combined and 23 percent of oats are still out.

Close to 10 percent of spring wheat and barley remains and seven percent of the flax is still out. The northeast region is the most behind.

CRUSH IS STRONG

Crushers processed 187,745 tonnes of canola in the week ending Nov. 30, up 3.8 percent from the week before.

That represented almost 88 percent of capacity and matched the capacity use to date this crop year.

The total crushed to date is 3.047 million tonnes, up about 15 percent over last year. That is a record pace.

EXPORTS

Canola bulk exports in the week to Nov. 27 were 182,800 tonnes, down from 251,400 tonnes the week before, Canadian Grain Commission figures show.

To date 3.05 million tonnes of canola have been shipped, down 5.7 percent from 3.23 million last year

All wheat bulk exports in the week were 355,100 tonnes, up from 238,800 tonnes.

To date, wheat exports stand at 4.72 million, down 19 percent from 5.845 million last year.

U.S. CROP MARKETS

There was little movement in the soybean complex today.

Chicago wheat bounced a little higher today after a bad week where prices slid down on forecasts of a larger than expected Australian wheat crop. Kansas wheat also rose today, but Minneapolis spring wheat was little changed.

Corn edged higher.

Crude oil rose for a third day but the gain was just over one percent as the trade tried to figure out the true impact of the agreement by OPEC, Russia and possibly others to cut about one percent of global production.

News of the agreement sparked a one weekly rally that was the largest since August 2015.

EMPLOYMENT REPORTS

Canada’s economy added 10,700 jobs in November and the jobless rate fell to 6.8 percent. However that was the result of losing 8,700 full time jobs and gaining 19,400 part time jobs.

The report was slightly better than expected but did little to alter the expectation that the Bank of Canada will leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting this month.

In the U.S., the economy added 178,000 jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 4.6 percent. The jobs report was about what the trade had expected and reinforced the expectation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will increase interest rates this month.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index rose 24.99 points, or 0.17 percent, at 15,052.52.

The Dow Jones industrial average today fell 21.5 points, or 0.11 percent, to 19,170.42, the S&P 500 gained 0.87 point, or 0.04 percent, to 2,191.95 and the Nasdaq Composite added 4.55 points, or 0.09 percent, to 5,255.65.

For the week, the TSX fell 0.15 percent, the Dow gained 0.1 percent, the S&P 500 fell one percent and the Nasdaq dropped 2.7 percent.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 62 cents to US$51.68 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US75.20 cents, up from 75.01 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3298.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Jan 17 529.30s +1.60 +0.30%

Canola Mar 17 535.90s +1.60 +0.30%

Canola May 17 540.90s +2.50 +0.46%

Canola Jul 17 541.40s +3.10 +0.58%

Canola Nov 17 512.40s +2.20 +0.43%

Milling Wheat Dec 16 235.00 -1.00 -0.42%

Milling Wheat Mar 17 239.00 unch unch

Milling Wheat May 17 241.00 unch unch

Durum Wheat Dec 16 315.00 unch unch

Durum Wheat Mar 17 323.00 unch unch

Durum Wheat May 17 326.00 unch unch

Barley Dec 16 138.00 unch unch

Barley Mar 17 142.00 unch unch

Barley May 17 144.00 unch unch

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Jan 2017 1027.50 -2.25 -0.22%

Soybeans Mar 2017 1037.25 -1.75 -0.17%

Soybeans May 2017 1044.50 -1.00 -0.10%

Soybeans Jul 2017 1049.25 -1.00 -0.10%

Soybeans Aug 2017 1045.75 -0.75 -0.07%

Soybeans Sep 2017 1029.00 +0.50 +0.05%

Soybean Meal Dec 2016 310.70 -0.20 -0.06%

Soybean Meal Jan 2017 312.50 -0.20 -0.06%

Soybean Meal Mar 2017 315.60 unch 0.00%

Soybean Oil Dec 2016 37.51 -0.13 -0.35%

Soybean Oil Jan 2017 37.72 -0.13 -0.34%

Soybean Oil Mar 2017 37.99 -0.13 -0.34%

Corn Dec 2016 337.50 +5.75 +1.73%

Corn Mar 2017 347.25 +4.75 +1.39%

Corn May 2017 354.25 +4.25 +1.21%

Corn Jul 2017 361.75 +4.00 +1.12%

Corn Sep 2017 369.00 +3.50 +0.96%

Oats Dec 2016 200.25 unch 0.00%

Oats Mar 2017 214.50 -0.75 -0.35%

Oats May 2017 218.50 -0.75 -0.34%

Oats Jul 2017 219.25 -1.00 -0.45%

Oats Sep 2017 224.25 -0.25 -0.11%

Wheat Dec 2016 387.50 +16.00 +4.31%

Wheat Mar 2017 404.25 +8.75 +2.21%

Wheat May 2017 417.00 +8.25 +2.02%

Wheat Jul 2017 431.00 +7.00 +1.65%

Wheat Sep 2017 446.25 +6.25 +1.42%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 2016 543.00 +2.00 +0.37%

Spring Wheat Mar 2017 538.50 unch 0.00%

Spring Wheat May 2017 540.00 -0.75 -0.14%

Spring Wheat Jul 2017 542.75 -0.75 -0.14%

Spring Wheat Sep 2017 548.75 -1.00 -0.18%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016 390.00 +6.00 +1.56%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017 408.75 +5.75 +1.43%

Hard Red Wheat May 2017 420.50 +5.50 +1.33%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 432.50 +6.00 +1.41%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 447.25 +6.00 +1.36%

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)

Live Cattle (P) Dec 2016 108.22 -2.36 -2.13%

Live Cattle (P) Feb 2017 108.88 -2.50 -2.24%

Live Cattle (P) Apr 2017 109.05 -2.18 -1.96%

Feeder Cattle (P) Jan 2017 124.60 -3.18 -2.49%

Feeder Cattle (P) Mar 2017 121.52 -2.73 -2.20%

Feeder Cattle (P) Apr 2017 121.25 -2.78 -2.24%

Lean Hogs (P) Dec 2016 50.75 +0.52 +1.04%

Lean Hogs (P) Feb 2017 54.02 -0.05 -0.09%

Lean Hogs (P) Apr 2017 60.15 -0.30 -0.50%

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