Canola futures posted a small loss Friday and closed the week unchanged, with downward pressure from the rising Canadian dollar.
The loonie gained about a cent today as crude oil futures rose and the March Canadian jobs report was better than expected.
Most-traded May canola closed at $480.10, down $2.10 on the day, but unchanged on the week.
New crop November closed at $482.90 and down $1.30 on the week.
Soybean and soy meal futures rose today but soy oil fell along with lower palm oil futures.
Corn rose slightly and wheat saw stronger gains.
Canola exports also slowed in week 35 of the crop year, ending April 3.
The Canadian Grain Commission said exports totalled 231,000 tonnes, down from 320,500 the week before.
The total to date remains well up from last year at 6.7 million tonnes versus 5.633 million in 2014-15
Wheat exports were up on the week at 495,400 tonnes, up from 328.900.
The wheat total for the year is 11.64 million tonnes, up from 10.81 million last year.
The long term weather forecasts that called for rain mid-month in the U.S. southern Plains winter wheat area now look like the moisture will be limited to eastern Oklahoma. Kansas looks mostly dry in the seven day outlook.
Judging by comments from Kansas farmers on social media, they are becoming increasingly worried about the lack of rain. The official wheat condition reports from the U.S. Department Of Agriculture have yet so show much crop stress and the overall ratings as of last Monday remained much better than last year at this time.
A Reuters story today quoted U.S. consultancy AgResource with a negative 2016 price forecast.
It said that by the time the Chicago December corn contract becomes the front month, it would fall 25 percent to $2.80 per bushel. That would be the lowest front-month contract since October 2006.
July wheat is expected to fall by nearly 14 percent to $4 per bushel, the lowest since September 2006, while soybean November is seen tumbling 17 percent to $7.60 per bu., the lowest since May 2007, AgResource president Dan Basse told Reuters at the Cereals Europe conference in Geneva.
That assumes normal weather.
Much will depend on how quickly the El Nino dissipates and whether a La Nina rapidly replaces it. If a La Nina does establish by early summer then that would tend to bring hot dry weather to the Midwest that could stress crops.
The Canadian economy created 40,600 jobs in March, far surpassing economists’ expectations for 10,000, and driven by a 35,300 increase in full-time jobs. The unemployment rate declined to 7.1 percent, its lowest since December.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up $2.46 to US$39.72 per barrel. On the week, oil rose eight percent.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US76.95 cents, up from 75.97 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2995.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 130.29 points, or 0.98 percent, at 13,396.73. It slipped 0.3 percent on the week.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 35.27 points, or 0.2 percent, to 17,577.23, the S&P 500 gained 5.7 points, or 0.28 percent, to 2,047.61 and the Nasdaq Composite added 2.32 points, or 0.05 percent, to 4,850.69.
For the week, the Dow and S&P 500 lost 1.2 percent, while the Nasdaq fell 1.3 percent.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola May 2016 480.10 -2.10 -0.44%
Canola Jul 2016 485.50 -1.50 -0.31%
Canola Nov 2016 482.90 -1.40 -0.29%
Canola Mar 2017 490.00 -1.00 -0.20%
Milling Wheat May 2016 240.00 +3.00 +1.27%
Milling Wheat Jul 2016 240.00 +3.00 +1.27%
Milling Wheat Oct 2016 238.00 +3.00 +1.28%
Durum Wheat May 2016 296.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2016 291.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2016 277.00 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2016 172.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2016 174.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2016 174.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans May 2016 916.75 +12.25 +1.35%
Soybeans Jul 2016 925 +12.25 +1.34%
Soybeans Aug 2016 927.5 +11.75 +1.28%
Soybeans Sep 2016 927.75 +11.5 +1.26%
Soybeans Nov 2016 930.75 +11.25 +1.22%
Soybeans Jan 2017 935.25 +11 +1.19%
Soybean Meal May 2016 273.7 +6.9 +2.59%
Soybean Meal Jul 2016 276.1 +6.7 +2.49%
Soybean Meal Aug 2016 277.3 +6.5 +2.40%
Soybean Oil May 2016 33.94 -0.16 -0.47%
Soybean Oil Jul 2016 34.21 -0.16 -0.47%
Soybean Oil Aug 2016 34.32 -0.16 -0.46%
Corn May 2016 362.25 +0.75 +0.21%
Corn Jul 2016 365 +1 +0.27%
Corn Sep 2016 368 +1 +0.27%
Corn Dec 2016 375 +0.75 +0.20%
Corn Mar 2017 384.5 +0.25 +0.07%
Oats May 2016 187 +0.75 +0.40%
Oats Jul 2016 194.5 unch 0.00%
Oats Dec 2016 210.75 unch 0.00%
Oats Mar 2017 218 +0.5 +0.23%
Wheat May 2016 460.25 +3.25 +0.71%
Wheat Jul 2016 466.75 +2.25 +0.48%
Wheat Sep 2016 476.25 +2 +0.42%
Wheat Dec 2016 490.75 +1.75 +0.36%
Wheat Mar 2017 505.5 +2 +0.40%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat May 2016 521 +7.5 +1.46%
Spring Wheat Jul 2016 529.5 +7.25 +1.39%
Spring Wheat Sep 2016 539 +7 +1.32%
Spring Wheat Dec 2016 551.75 +6.75 +1.24%
Spring Wheat Mar 2017 564.5 +6.75 +1.21%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat May 2016 460 +5.75 +1.27%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016 470.75 +5.25 +1.13%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016 484.75 +4.75 +0.99%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016 504.75 +4.25 +0.85%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017 517.75 +4.25 +0.83%
