Canola futures ended the week on a down note, slipping $1.60 per tonne in November and January, despite support from rising soybeans that were still upbeat after the strong weekly export figures from Thursday.
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A stronger loonie and weaker soy oil futures weighed down canola today.
Soy meal was mixed today with December slipping a third of one percent and March rising 1.2 percent.
The market cooled this week with the leader, soy meal, rising only 0.8 percent over the five days.
For the week, January soybean futures fell one percent, snapping a streak of five straight weekly gains.
Soy oil shed 6.8 percent during the week, on weak demand and spill over from falling crude oil.
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Considering the weakness in soy oil, canola held on rather well.
November closed at $451.10, down $1.80 or 0.4 percent. January closed at $435.10, down $3.90 or 0.9 percent on the week.
The weekly U.S. soybean export sales report Thursday was well above the expectation. The hot demand is reflected in rising cash market bids for soybeans.
Analysts expect that the USDA’s monthly supply and demand report on Monday will show that although soybean production will be revised up, the strong demand will cause the year end stocks number to be reduced.
We will have coverage of the USDA report on Monday morning at Producer.com
Wheat futures fell Friday, still smarting from lower than expected weekly U.S. export sales.
For the week, December Chicago fell 3.4 percent, Kansas City wheat fell 4.1 percent and Minneapolis spring wheat fell 4.9 percent.The rising U.S. dollar is making American wheat less attractive on world markets. At the same time, the Russian ruble is falling, increasing its competitiveness.
China’s imports of canola, mostly from Canada, for calendar year 2014 are expected to be about five million tonnes, according to the China National Grain and Oils Information Centre. That is a 64 percent increase over 2013.
In the final quarter of the year, October through December, China’s canola imports are expected to total 1.0-1.2 million tonnes, the centre said.
A solid export pace is needed now that domestic canola consumption has been hurt by the temporary shutdown of the Louis Dreyfus plant at Yorkton, Sask., following the explosion there two weeks ago.
The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association said members crushed 128,610 tonnes of canola in the week ending Nov. 5. That was down 3.3 percent from the week before.
It represented only 71.4 percent of the industry’s crush capacity, down from the year-to-date rate of 82 percent.
Corn fell about one percent today as traders positioned ahead of Monday’s USDA report, which is expected to increase the size of the U.S. corn crop.
Corn lost ground this week, the first weekly decline in six weeks.
However, the news was not all bearish. Open interest was rising indicating that investors were taking new long, or bullish positions.
A Bloomberg story suggests China’s corn crop is smaller than what the USDA expects.
Output will fall 3.6 percent, the biggest drop in a decade, to 210.6 million tons, according to SGS SA, which interviewed 307 farmers in China’s top growing regions for Bloomberg during September and October.
Dry weather was a problem, the news service said.
China’s crop sizes are always a debated topic. Many analysts believe official Chinese crop statistics are inflated.
The USDA’s forecast for China’s corn crop is 217 million tonnes.
But given the large size of China’s government-owned grain stocks, the Asian giant is not expected increase imports.
Canada and the U.S. issued jobs reports today.
The Canadian economy added 43,100 jobs in October, more than expected, and the unemployment rate dropped to a near six-year low of 6.5 percent.
South of the border, it was a mixed picture as data showed that U.S. jobs growth missed expectations in October, but the unemployment rate dropped to a six-year low.
In the U.S., employers added 214,000 jobs last month, below the 231,000 expected in a Reuters poll of economists, while August and September’s gains were revised higher. The unemployment rate fell to 5.8 percent from 5.9 percent.
Crude oil rose on concern about a collapse of the Ukrainian ceasefire and forecasts of unseasonably cold temperatures in the U.S. Midwest
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 74 cents at US$78.65 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US88.03 cents, up from 87.54 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.1360.
The Toronto Stock Exchange composite rose 127.45 points or 0.88 percent to 14,690.83.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 19.46 points, or 0.11 percent, to 17,573.93, the S&P 500 gained 0.71 points, or 0.03 percent, to 2,031.92 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 5.94 points, or 0.13 percent, to 4,632.53.
For the week, theTSX composite rose 0.5 percent, the Dow rose 1.1 percent and the S&P added 0.7 percent in their third straight weekly gain. The Nasdaq closed the week up 0.04 percent.
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ICE Futures Canada, dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2014 451.10 -1.60 -0.35%
Canola Jan 2015 435.10 -1.60 -0.37%
Canola Mar 2015 432.50 -0.70 -0.16%
Canola May 2015 431.20 -1.60 -0.37%
Canola Jul 2015 430.10 -2.20 -0.51%
Milling Wheat Dec 2014 215.00 -3.00 -1.38%
Milling Wheat Mar 2015 222.00 -2.00 -0.89%
Milling Wheat May 2015 226.00 -2.00 -0.88%
Durum Wheat Dec 2014 356.50 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2015 357.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2014 154.00 +8.00 +5.48%
Barley Mar 2015 158.00 +8.00 +5.33%
Barley May 2015 158.00 +8.00 +5.33%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Nov 2014 1040.25 +9.25 +0.90%
Soybeans Mar 2015 1040.25 +8 +0.78%
Soybeans May 2015 1044.5 +8 +0.77%
Soybeans Jul 2015 1048.25 +8.75 +0.84%
Soybeans Aug 2015 1048.25 +9.75 +0.94%
Soybean Meal Dec 2014 390.4 -1.3 -0.33%
Soybean Meal Jan 2015 371.7 +1.7 +0.46%
Soybean Meal Mar 2015 354.2 +4.2 +1.20%
Soybean Oil Dec 2014 32.4 -0.13 -0.40%
Soybean Oil Jan 2015 32.59 -0.09 -0.28%
Soybean Oil Mar 2015 32.79 -0.07 -0.21%
Corn Dec 2014 367.5 -3.75 -1.01%
Corn Mar 2015 380.5 -3.5 -0.91%
Corn May 2015 389.5 -3.25 -0.83%
Corn Jul 2015 396.25 -3.5 -0.88%
Corn Sep 2015 403 -3.5 -0.86%
Oats Dec 2014 338.75 +3 +0.89%
Oats Mar 2015 332.75 +1.5 +0.45%
Oats May 2015 331.5 +1.75 +0.53%
Oats Jul 2015 326.75 +4.5 +1.40%
Oats Sep 2015 329 +3.25 +1.00%
Wheat Dec 2014 514.5 -5.75 -1.11%
Wheat Mar 2015 526.25 -5.75 -1.08%
Wheat May 2015 534 -5.5 -1.02%
Wheat Jul 2015 540.25 -5.75 -1.05%
Wheat Sep 2015 549.25 -6.25 -1.13%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2014 546.25 -7.75 -1.40%
Spring Wheat May 2015 570.25 -6.5 -1.13%
Spring Wheat Jul 2015 580.25 -6.25 -1.07%
Spring Wheat Sep 2015 590 -6 -1.01%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2014 569.25 -9.75 -1.68%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015 574 -8.5 -1.46%
Hard Red Wheat May 2015 577.75 -7.25 -1.24%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 572.75 -8.25 -1.42%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 584.5 -7.5 -1.27%
