Canola leads way as futures rise

It was another relatively dull day in the crop futures markets, marked by a pleasantly upward trend for almost all crops, with canola doing better than most.

November canola futures rose $3.30 per tonne to $425.20 and January rose $3.50 to $431.

Soybeans were up as were the wheats, while oats futures were generally flat.

The days before the Labour Day holiday are often ones of light trade, as many market participants are on vacation, and while that can lead to volatility if anything big happens, if little happens it’s hard for much price action to occur.

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With no major weather scares or delights out there, markets have had little inclination to move much.

“It’s pretty quiet,” said Ken Ball, a broker with P.I. Financial in Winnipeg.

“The market’s kind of on hold.”

The frost scare from two days ago has not been followed up with any reports of significant damage, so there’s little impact from that, and with much of the wet weather moving out of Western Canada, traders expect farmers to get out there soon and start the bulk of harvest.

That’s when eyes will be drawn to all reports of real yields that farmers are getting. After months of indirect assessments of potential yields, real numbers will soon be appearing that will give the markets a better sense of what’s really out there. This year there’s an unusual amount of opaqueness about the true size of crops.

“It’s very much up in the air what the crop size is,” said Ball.

“I don’t think anybody has a strong clue. They’re just waiting to see.”

The situation is confusing because millions of acres were damaged by the late June-early July rain storm, with yields at first seeming devastated. But almost two months of good growing conditions have probably boosted those acres to higher yields than anyone expected.

But in other areas, yields may have been reduced by various weather events, so coming up with an average will be difficult. Most traders think StatsCan was generally right if slightly low for most crops.

Most world stock markets were slightly lower as anxiety over possible Russian invasions of Ukraine worried traders that trade could become snarled and confidence wane. These worries counteracted the bullish influence of good U.S. economic news.

The U.S. economy expanded faster than expected and unemployment claims came in lower than expected, but who knows what kind of craziness the Russians will get up to. That’s what markets were dealing with.

Things will all seem more serious next week, when everyone gets back from holidays, the kids go back to school and the light fluffery of the dog days of summer are replaced by the new focus of fall.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2014   425.20   +3.30   +0.78%
Canola Jan 2015   431.00   +3.50   +0.82%
Canola Mar 2015   436.10   +3.70   +0.86%
Canola May 2015   438.00   +4.10   +0.94%
Canola Jul 2015   438.30   +4.20   +0.97%

Milling Wheat Oct 2014   205.00   +1.00   +0.49%
Milling Wheat Dec 2014   211.00   +2.00   +0.96%
Milling Wheat Mar 2015   219.00   +2.00   +0.92%

Durum Wheat Oct 2014   250.00   unch   0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2014   256.00   unch   0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2015   257.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Oct 2014   125.00   -10.00   -7.41%
Barley Dec 2014   127.00   -10.00   -7.30%
Barley Mar 2015   128.00   -10.00   -7.25%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans Sep 2014   1073.75   -12   -1.11%
Soybeans Nov 2014   1028.75   +5   +0.49%
Soybeans Jan 2015   1036.5   +4.75   +0.46%
Soybeans Mar 2015   1043.75   +4.5   +0.43%
Soybeans May 2015   1050.25   +5.25   +0.50%
Soybeans Jul 2015   1054.75   +5   +0.48%

Soybean Meal Sep 2014   433.2   +16.7   +4.01%
Soybean Meal Oct 2014   362.9   +6.2   +1.74%
Soybean Meal Dec 2014   348.6   +4.4   +1.28%

Soybean Oil Sep 2014   32.64   -0.03   -0.09%
Soybean Oil Oct 2014   32.67   -0.03   -0.09%
Soybean Oil Dec 2014   32.79   -0.02   -0.06%

Corn Sep 2014   361.75   +5.75   +1.62%
Corn Dec 2014   369.25   +4.25   +1.16%
Corn Mar 2015   382.25   +4   +1.06%
Corn May 2015   390.5   +4   +1.03%
Corn Jul 2015   397   +3.75   +0.95%

Oats Sep 2014   361   +1.25   +0.35%
Oats Dec 2014   341   unch   0.00%
Oats Mar 2015   328   unch   0.00%
Oats May 2015   320.5   +1.25   +0.39%
Oats Jul 2015   317.5   +0.75   +0.24%

Wheat Sep 2014   556.5   +9.25   +1.69%
Wheat Dec 2014   571.75   +9.5   +1.69%
Wheat Mar 2015   591.25   +8.75   +1.50%
Wheat May 2015   600.75   +7.75   +1.31%
Wheat Jul 2015   605.25   +6   +1.00%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2014   612   +1.75   +0.29%
Spring Wheat Dec 2014   632   +5.25   +0.84%
Spring Wheat Mar 2015   645   +5.5   +0.86%
Spring Wheat May 2015   654   +5.25   +0.81%
Spring Wheat Jul 2015   661.25   +4.75   +0.72%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2014   635   +7   +1.11%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2014   644.75   +6.75   +1.06%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015   653.25   +6.75   +1.04%
Hard Red Wheat May 2015   656.5   +5.75   +0.88%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015   645.5   +5.25   +0.82%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 67 cents at $94.55 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 92.11 cents US, up from 91.82 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0857 Cdn.