Canola jumps Thursday on tight old crop oilseed supply

Canola rose on Thursday on stronger U.S. soybeans that were lifted by strong commercial demand as port delays in Brazil continue to shift business to the U.S.

May soybeans jumped by about two percent. Gains in canola were closer to one percent.

Canola was also supported by the fact that if the pace of export and domestic crush carries on as it has to date, it would exceed Ag Canada forecasts, forcing a reduction in the already low forecast of 350,000 tonne ending stocks. In other words, use must be rationed to avoid running out of canola. (However, this assumes that the current estimate of the 2012 crop, 13.31 million tonnes, is correct.)

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Soybean gains were limited by China’s decision to sell between 1 million and 1.5 million tonnes of soy from state reserves to crushers to ease tight supply linked to Brazilian pork congestion. New crop gains were limited by expectation for record U.S. soybean area this spring.

Palm oil prices rose on a reduction in burdensome stocks.

May canola closed at $630.40, up $7.10. November closed at $564.40, up $5.50.

Brazilian dock workers called off a national port strike set for next week. They are now willing to relax rules that allow unions to control labour assignments at terminals.

Argentina’s agriculture ministry today pegged its soy crop at 51.3 million tonnes, more than a million tonnes under the country’s all-time record but far higher than the drought-hit 2011-12 season. Some private forecasters put the crop at less than 50 million tonnes.

A series of weather systems should move across the U.S. Plains over the next several days bringing more moisture.

USDA reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 107,800 tonnes for 2012-13 and 234,100 tonnes for 2013-14, below trade expectations.

Net export sales of old-crop U.S. corn were 92,200 tonnes, within the range of estimates and new-crop sales at 183,300 tonnes, also within the range of expectations.

Wheat export sales were 484,500 tonnes, near the low end of analysts’ forecasts for 450,000 to 800,000 tonnes. New-crop sales of 88,800 tonnes were less than expected.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola May 2013 630.40 +7.10 +1.14%

Canola Jul 2013 616.80 +6.50 +1.07%

Canola Nov 2013 564.40 +5.50 +0.98%

Canola Jan 2014 565.60 +4.70 +0.84%

Canola Mar 2014 563.40 +4.00 +0.72%

Milling Wheat May 2013 292.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Jul 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Oct 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2013 311.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2013 314.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2013 299.30 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2013 243.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2013 243.50 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2013 243.50 unch 0.00%

U.S. crop futures in cents US per bushel, soy oil in cents US per pound, and soybean meal in dollars US per short ton.

Chicago

Soybeans May 2013 1449 +29.25 +2.06%

Soybeans Jul 2013 1425.5 +26.25 +1.88%

Soybeans Aug 2013 1381.25 +22.25 +1.64%

Soybeans Sep 2013 1312.5 +17.75 +1.37%

Soybeans Nov 2013 1275.25 +14.25 +1.13%

Soybeans Jan 2014 1279.5 +13.75 +1.09%

Soybean Meal May 2013 422.9 +9.1 +2.20%

Soybean Meal Jul 2013 416.9 +8.7 +2.13%

Soybean Meal Aug 2013 399.9 +6.9 +1.76%

Soybean Oil May 2013 50.42 +0.58 +1.16%

Soybean Oil Jul 2013 50.67 +0.57 +1.14%

Soybean Oil Aug 2013 50.57 +0.56 +1.12%

Corn May 2013 733 +0.5 +0.07%

Corn Jul 2013 717.25 unch 0.00%

Corn Sep 2013 598.25 +3.25 +0.55%

Corn Dec 2013 568.5 +1.5 +0.26%

Corn Mar 2014 577.5 +1.5 +0.26%

Oats May 2013 395 -4.25 -1.06%

Oats Jul 2013 387.75 -2 -0.51%

Oats Sep 2013 364.5 -1 -0.27%

Oats Dec 2013 357.5 -2 -0.56%

Oats Mar 2014 368.5 -3 -0.81%

Chicago soft red

Wheat May 2013 728.75 -7.25 -0.99%

Wheat Jul 2013 727.5 -6.5 -0.89%

Wheat Sep 2013 732.75 -6.5 -0.88%

Wheat Dec 2013 744.25 -6 -0.80%

Wheat Mar 2014 756.25 -6.25 -0.82%

Minneapolis hard red spring

Spring Wheat May 2013 802.75 -6.75 -0.83%

Spring Wheat Jul 2013 802.5 -6.5 -0.80%

Spring Wheat Sep 2013 801.25 -7.75 -0.96%

Spring Wheat Dec 2013 808.5 -6.75 -0.83%

Spring Wheat Mar 2014 820.25 -6 -0.73%

Kansas City hard red winter

KCBT Red Wheat May 2013 760.5 -5.75 -0.75%

KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2013 765.25 -5.75 -0.75%

KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013 776.25 -5.75 -0.74%

KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 791.5 -4.75 -0.60%

KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 803.5 -6 -0.74%

The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 31.59 points, or 0.97 percent, to close at 3,222.60.

The Bank of Canada noon rate for the loonie was 97.65 cents US, up from 97.39 cents on Wednesday. The U.S. buck was $1.0241 Cdn.

Nearby crude oil in New York fell $1.05 to $92.45 per barrel.

Stocks and oil fell on worries about the Cyprus economic crisis and euro-zone growth. Investors fear a collapse of the banking system in Cyprus will tighten credit across Europe.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down 78.68 points, or 0.61 percent, at 12,747.87, very close to its lowest level of the day and its lowest point since March 14.

The Dow Jones industrial average slid 90.24 points, or 0.62 percent, to end at 14,421.49.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 12.91 points, or 0.83 percent, to finish at 1,545.80.