Red numbers dominated North American crop futures tables Monday as all contracts slipped.
Some, like wheat contracts, fell sharply..
“The wheat market in the U.S. got too high,” said Errol Anderson of Pro Market Communications, attributing the losses mostly to the market being overbought than a major change in fundamental factors.
Wheat contracts fell more than three percent, or over 20 cents per bushel, while soybean May and July contracts each fell 15 cents and August fell 11 cents.
The wheat plunge could have been provoked by light rains reaching some of the southern Plains, or by weak U.S. weekly export inspections, but traders said technical factors were a stronger factor after recent strength got carried away. More rain systems are forecast for mid week and next weekend in the southern Plains.
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Canola futures fell $6.40 per tonne for May, closing at $463.30 while July fell $6.00 per tonne to $473.30.
Soybean futures spooked crop market bulls Monday, as the price drop could be interpreted as completing the head of an upside head-and-shoulders chart pattern. For soybeans, a two-and-a-half month rally has taken soybean futures up $2.40 per bushel and betting on continuing soybean strength has been profitable for bull-side speculators.
An end to soybean strength would hurt the price outlook for other crops, Anderson said, since they have been clinging to that crop’s coattails.
Strong demand for U.S. soybeans has created an inversion in May-July futures, while canola futures maintain a normal carry. Canola is still overflowing in prairie bins while U.S. soybeans are scarce.
Anderson said many traders will be watching Tuesday’s market to see if the weakness connotes more than a single bad day. A “turnaround Tuesday” would alleviate some fears that the recent bull moves are over, but continued weakness could provoke bigger sell-offs.
After the close, the U.S. Department of Agriculture issued its weekly crop progress report. Itsaid six percent of the intended corn acreage had been seeded as of Sunday. That was up from four percent last year at the same time, but down from the five-year average of 14 percent. Traders, on average, expected nine percent of the corn crop to be in the ground.
The USDA put the winter wheat crop good-to-excellent rating at 34 percent, unchanged from the week before.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola May 2014 463.30 -6.40 -1.36%
Canola Jul 2014 473.30 -6.00 -1.25%
Canola Nov 2014 487.80 -6.30 -1.28%
Canola Jan 2015 494.40 -6.50 -1.30%
Canola Mar 2015 500.50 -6.70 -1.32%
Milling Wheat May 2014 215.00 -7.00 -3.15%
Milling Wheat Jul 2014 213.00 -7.00 -3.18%
Milling Wheat Oct 2014 215.00 -8.00 -3.59%
Durum Wheat May 2014 250.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2014 250.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2014 252.00 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2014 139.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2014 140.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2014 140.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans May 2014 1498.75 -15.25 -1.01%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1487.25 -15 -1.00%
Soybeans Aug 2014 1409 -11.5 -0.81%
Soybeans Sep 2014 1286 -12.25 -0.94%
Soybeans Nov 2014 1223.75 -15.5 -1.25%
Soybeans Jan 2015 1228.5 -15.75 -1.27%
Soybean Meal May 2014 485.7 -2.6 -0.53%
Soybean Meal Jul 2014 476.1 -1.9 -0.40%
Soybean Meal Aug 2014 444.8 -2.6 -0.58%
Soybean Oil May 2014 43 -0.41 -0.94%
Soybean Oil Jul 2014 43.26 -0.4 -0.92%
Soybean Oil Aug 2014 43.13 -0.37 -0.85%
Corn May 2014 488.5 -6.25 -1.26%
Corn Jul 2014 493.75 -6.75 -1.35%
Corn Sep 2014 491.5 -6.75 -1.35%
Corn Dec 2014 490 -6.75 -1.36%
Corn Mar 2015 498 -6.5 -1.29%
Oats May 2014 395.25 -8.75 -2.17%
Oats Jul 2014 347.75 -8 -2.25%
Oats Sep 2014 338.75 unch 0.00%
Oats Dec 2014 326 -4 -1.21%
Oats Mar 2015 325.75 -3.75 -1.14%
Wheat May 2014 668.25 -23 -3.33%
Wheat Jul 2014 675.5 -23.5 -3.36%
Wheat Sep 2014 685 -23.25 -3.28%
Wheat Dec 2014 698.25 -22.75 -3.16%
Wheat Mar 2015 711.25 -22.25 -3.03%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat May 2014 714.5 -18.25 -2.49%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 719.5 -20.25 -2.74%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014 726 -20 -2.68%
Spring Wheat Dec 2014 736.5 -20.25 -2.68%
Spring Wheat Mar 2015 744.5 -20.75 -2.71%
Kansas City
KC HRW Wheat May 2014 734 -24 -3.17%
KC HRW Wheat Jul 2014 741.75 -23.25 -3.04%
KC HRW Wheat Sep 2014 749.25 -22.25 -2.88%
KC HRW Wheat Dec 2014 759.75 -21.25 -2.72%
KC HRW Wheat Mar 2015 762.75 -21.25 -2.71%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 7 cents at $104.37 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 90.74 cents US, down from 90.93 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.1021 Cdn.
