Canola has best week in two months, gains $14.20

Canola was little changed on Friday after a week that saw significant gains.

Old crop finished up slightly and new crop was down a little.

Concerns about tight old crop stocks and slow farmer deliveries supported the market, but a slight weakness in soy oil prevented a significant advance Friday. Crude oil prices fell sharply Thursday and Friday on forecasts for slow global demand.

Wheat jumped higher Friday on rising concerns that freezing weather this week has harmed the U.S. winter wheat crop. Another freeze is expected next week.

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Also, China made a major purchase of U.S. soft wheat on Thursday and the market expects more sales to China. Wheat enjoyed technical strength after the price rallied through moving averages.

Corn and oats also rose on support from wheat.

May canola closed at $625.40, up 10 cents and November closed at $560.50, down 50 cents.

For the week, May rose $14.20 and November climbed $11.80. It was the strongest week in two months.

• Several analysts note that the strong inverse — that it’s the stronger prices for nearby contract over deferred contracts — and very attractive basis levels show that commercial buyers, those who actually use the crop, remain concerned about old crop stocks.

Although the last couple of USDA reports — the March 1 stocks report and the supply and demand report this week — indicated the squeeze is not as tight as feared, these other signals indicate that commercial users are not so sanguine about old crop supply.

• Outside markets were mostly down Friday on a disappointing report on U.S. March retail sales and on consumer confidence. Gold was hammered lower.

• Another issue in the minds of ag traders is the late start to spring in Canada and the U.S.

The delays caused by the slow melt and potential for flooding in western Canada mean canola flowering might be pushed into the hottest weeks of summer. There is also potential for a latest harvest with the risk of frost damage.

The delays in seeding in the U.S. mean that the potential for optimum corn yields is passing. If it gets too late, farmers might consider shifting acres from corn to soybeans, which have a shorter maturity.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola May 2013 625.40 +0.10 +0.02%

Canola Jul 2013 612.70 +0.20 +0.03%

Canola Nov 2013 560.50 -0.50 -0.09%

Canola Jan 2014 559.50 -0.60 -0.11%

Canola Mar 2014 552.60 -1.00 -0.18%

Milling Wheat May 2013 292.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Jul 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Oct 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2013 310.80 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2013 313.80 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2013 299.10 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2013 243.50 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2013 244.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2013 234.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans May 2013 1413 +11 +0.78%

Soybeans Jul 2013 1379.25 +11 +0.80%

Soybeans Aug 2013 1339.25 +8.25 +0.62%

Soybeans Sep 2013 1273.25 +6 +0.47%

Soybeans Nov 2013 1231.75 +5 +0.41%

Soybeans Jan 2014 1237.75 +4.75 +0.39%

Soybean Meal May 2013 400.2 +5.2 +1.32%

Soybean Meal Jul 2013 397.4 +4.5 +1.15%

Soybean Meal Aug 2013 384.2 +4 +1.05%

Soybean Oil May 2013 49.23 -0.54 -1.08%

Soybean Oil Jul 2013 49.42 -0.54 -1.08%

Soybean Oil Aug 2013 49.4 -0.5 -1.00%

Corn May 2013 658.5 +7.25 +1.11%

Corn Jul 2013 641.25 +7.75 +1.22%

Corn Sep 2013 577 +10 +1.76%

Corn Dec 2013 550 +6 +1.10%

Corn Mar 2014 560.25 +6.25 +1.13%

Oats May 2013 380.5 +6.75 +1.81%

Oats Jul 2013 372.75 +5.5 +1.50%

Oats Sep 2013 368.5 +5 +1.38%

Oats Dec 2013 364 +3.5 +0.97%

Oats Mar 2014 365.75 +3.5 +0.97%

Chicago soft red winter

Wheat May 2013 714.75 +17 +2.44%

Wheat Jul 2013 719.5 +16.25 +2.31%

Wheat Sep 2013 725.25 +15.75 +2.22%

Wheat Dec 2013 738.75 +15 +2.07%

Wheat Mar 2014 752.25 +14.5 +1.97%

Minneapolis hard red spring

Spring Wheat May 2013 807.75 +18.25 +2.31%

Spring Wheat Jul 2013 798.75 +14.25 +1.82%

Spring Wheat Sep 2013 795.75 +11.5 +1.47%

Spring Wheat Dec 2013 805.25 +10.75 +1.35%

Spring Wheat Mar 2014 817.75 +8.5 +1.05%

Kansas City hard red winter

KCBT Red Wheat May 2013 753 +14.25 +1.93%

KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2013 759.25 +12.75 +1.71%

KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013 770.5 +11.75 +1.55%

KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 785.25 +11.25 +1.45%

KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 797.75 +11 +1.40%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York down $2.22 at $91.29 US per barrel.

Crude oil fell on the news and on lingering pressure from forecasts for lower global oil demand growth for 2013 released this week by the International Energy Agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

The Bank of Canada noon rate for the loonie was 98.68 cents US, down from 98.94 the day before. The U.S. buck was $1.0134 Cdn

Stock markets fell after a government report on U.S. retail sales fell by 0.4 percent in March, the second contraction in three months. Analysts expected flat sales.

Also, a Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan survey showed consumer sentiment tumbled to a nine-month low in April.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index fell 143.78 points, or 1.15 percent, to close at 12,337.59.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 0.08 points at 14,865.06.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 4.51 points, or 0.28 percent, finishing at 1,588.86.

The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 5.21 points, or 0.16 percent, closing at 3,294.95.

On the week the TSX was flat. The S&P 500 rose 2.3 percent, the Dow Jones rose 2.1 percent and the Nasdaq gained 2.8 percent.