Canola hammered lower by seeding progress; speculator selling

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Published: May 27, 2014

Speculative selling on ideas that farmers are making good seeding progress in Western Canada hammered July canola down almost 4.5 percent.

Sell stops were hit along the way, adding to the downward press

November fell 3.67 percent to $462.10. The inverse to the July contract disappeared and there is now a $2.70 carry in the market.

It was the biggest one-day loss in 10.5 months.

Weather has been conducive to planting in southern Alberta and western Saskatchewan but Agriculture Canada’s Drought Watch rain accumulation maps show there are areas in northeastern Alberta, the northern grain belt in Saskatchewan, southeastern Saskatchewan and many areas of Manitoba that have been wet.

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Photo: JHVEPhoto/Getty Images Plus

U.S. grains: Corn, soybeans extend losses as Midwest weather looks crop-friendly

Chicago Board of Trade corn futures extended session losses on Tuesday, weighed down by forecasts for crop-friendly rain in U.S. grain belts this week.

A good part of Saskatchewan will likely get significant rain Thursday.

U.S. crop markets fell, as good weather in the Midwest helped seeding and lifted expectations for good crops.

The USDA crop progress report released today because of the Monday Memorial Day holiday said 88 percent of the U.S. corn crop had been seeded, equal to the five-year average.

As for soybeans, 59 percent of the crop was seeded, ahead of the five-year average of 56 percent.

Ideas that stability will follow the successful election in Ukraine added pressure on the wheat market.

Recent rain caused a slight improvement in the U.S. red winter wheat crop. The USDA said the good to excellent categories rose to 30 percent from 29. The fair category this week is 26 percent, from 27 percent the week before. Poor to very poor is 44 percent, unchanged.

Spring wheat seeding is 74 percent complete, behind the five-year average of 82 percent. In North Dakota only 59 percent is seeded, down from the average of 73 percent.

Germany’s leading grain trader Toepfer International lifted its forecast of Germany’s 2014 wheat crop to 24.77 million tonnes, up from 23.95 million in April. Last year’s crop was 24.87 million tonnes.

Toepfer pegged the rapeseed crop at 5.72 million tonnes , almost steady with the 5.76 million tonnes produced in 2013.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

 

Canola Jul 2014       459.40       -21.50       -4.47%

Canola Nov 2014       462.10       -17.60       -3.67%

Canola Jan 2015       466.80       -17.40       -3.59%

Canola Mar 2015       468.30       -17.50       -3.60%

Canola May 2015       469.50       -17.80       -3.65%

 

Milling Wheat Jul 2014       218.00       -3.00       -1.36%

Milling Wheat Oct 2014       218.00       -3.00       -1.36%

Milling Wheat Dec 2014       222.00       -3.00       -1.33%

 

Durum Wheat Jul 2014       252.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2014       243.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2014       245.00       unch       0.00%

 

Barley Jul 2014       150.00       unch       0.00%

Barley Oct 2014       150.00       unch       0.00%

Barley Dec 2014       152.00       unch       0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Jul 2014       1488.75       -26.75       -1.77%

Soybeans Aug 2014       1418.75       -26.75       -1.85%

Soybeans Sep 2014       1291.5       -29.25       -2.21%

Soybeans Nov 2014       1238.75       -27       -2.13%

Soybeans Jan 2015       1244.25       -27       -2.12%

Soybeans Mar 2015       1247.75       -27.5       -2.16%

 

Soybean Meal Jul 2014       494.2       -8.4       -1.67%

Soybean Meal Aug 2014       466.4       -9       -1.89%

Soybean Meal Sep 2014       430.6       -10.3       -2.34%

 

Soybean Oil Jul 2014       39.94       -0.44       -1.09%

Soybean Oil Aug 2014       39.99       -0.42       -1.04%

Soybean Oil Sep 2014       40.04       -0.4       -0.99%

 

Corn Jul 2014       469.75       -8.25       -1.73%

Corn Sep 2014       466.25       -9.25       -1.95%

Corn Dec 2014       465.75       -9.5       -2.00%

Corn Mar 2015       474.75       -10       -2.06%

Corn May 2015       481.25       -9.75       -1.99%

 

Oats Jul 2014       339.75       -5.75       -1.66%

Oats Sep 2014       329.75       -5.75       -1.71%

Oats Dec 2014       325.75       -5.75       -1.73%

Oats Mar 2015       322.25       -5.5       -1.68%

Oats May 2015       318.25       -5.5       -1.70%

 

Wheat Jul 2014       641       -11.5       -1.76%

Wheat Sep 2014       653       -10.75       -1.62%

Wheat Dec 2014       672.5       -9.75       -1.43%

Wheat Mar 2015       689.5       -9.75       -1.39%

Wheat May 2015       697.5       -10       -1.41%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Jul 2014       718.5       -7       -0.96%

Spring Wheat Sep 2014       726       -7.75       -1.06%

Spring Wheat Dec 2014       735.5       -7.5       -1.01%

Spring Wheat Mar 2015       743.25       -7.75       -1.03%

Spring Wheat May 2015       747.25       -8       -1.06%

 

Kansas City

KC HRW Wheat Jul 2014       738.25       -6.75       -0.91%

KC HRW Wheat Sep 2014       745.25       -7       -0.93%

KC HRW Wheat Dec 2014       756.25       -7       -0.92%

KC HRW Wheat Mar 2015       760.75       -7       -0.91%

KC HRW Wheat May 2015       758.75       -6.5       -0.85%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped 24 cents at $104.11 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 92.00 cents US, down from 92.13 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0869 Cdn.

U.S. stocks were higher in afternoon trade on merger activity and ideas that the European Central Bank might cut interest rates.

In unofficial tallies —

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 69.23 points or 0.42 percent, to finish at 16,675.50.

The S&P 500 gained 11.38 points or 0.60 percent, to end at 1,911.91.

The Nasdaq Composite added 51.26 points or 1.22 percent, to close at 4,237.07.

The TSX composite was down on weaker gold and energy company shares.

It closed down 57.67 points, or 0.39 percent, at 14,658.02.

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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