Grain markets, including canola, were little changed Wednesday as traders positioned their portfolios ahead of Thursday’s USDA reports.
Watch for our immediate coverage through Twitter @darcemcmillan and @westernproducer. We’ll post stories at Producer.com. USDA’s reports come out at 10 CST.
Today’s Environment Canada forecast is the first with a widespread, minor frost risk in Saskatchewan, with the forecast overnight low for Regina-Estevan-Yorkton of 2C and Saskatoon-Prince Albert of 3C. Otherwise, daily highs remain well above the seasonal norm until early next week.
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U.S. grains: Soybean futures set two-week high on US weather worry, soyoil rally
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures touched a two-week high on Friday on worries that heat may threaten U.S. crops and expectations that the country’s biofuel policy would boost demand for soyoil, analysts said.
Reports of strong harvest yields continued to keep a cap on canola values while worries about yield-sapping heat and dryness in the Midwest provide support for soybeans.
Europe, Ukraine and Russia have large canola crops, adding downward pressure to the market. Australia’s crop is shaping up to be smaller than last year but production is looking better than it did a couple of months ago. The Australian government yesterday forecasted the canola crop at 3.3 million tonnes, up from a previous forecast of 3.2 million but down from last year’s 4.056 million, a result of reduced acreage.
Australian canola will likely become a strong competitor to Canada in the China market now that it has access to the Asian giant and also will likely ship less to Europe.
Early reports from the southern part of the U.S. corn belt are showing better than expected corn yields, but results might deteriorate as harvest moves north into drier areas.
All eyes tomorrow will be on the USDA’s soybean numbers.
A Reuters poll of 29 analysts showed the average estimate for 2013 U.S. soybean production at 3.140 billion bushels, below the USDA’s forecast in August for 3.255 billion bu.
Crop forecaster Lanworth on Wednesday lowered its forecast for 2013 U.S. soybean production to 3.113 billion bu. from its previous outlook for 3.114 billion.
Ukraine expects to harvest a record large crop.
China is expected to become the world’s largest importer of wheat this year, moving past Egypt. USDA’s August forecast was for China to buy 9.6 million tones of wheat, up from slightly less than three million tonnes last year. Egypt was expected to buy nine million tonnes, up from 8.3 million last year.
U.S. and European wheat exports for this crop year are running ahead of the sluggish pace set last year.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2013 496.90 +0.70 +0.14%
Canola Jan 2014 504.20 +0.40 +0.08%
Canola Mar 2014 510.60 +0.30 +0.06%
Canola May 2014 515.10 +0.40 +0.08%
Canola Jul 2014 518.30 +1.00 +0.19%
Milling Wheat Oct 2013 243.00 +2.00 +0.83%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013 246.00 +1.00 +0.41%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 251.00 +1.00 +0.40%
Durum Wheat Oct 2013 259.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2013 267.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 273.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2013 189.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2013 194.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2014 194.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Sep 2013 1405.25 +1.5 +0.11%
Soybeans Nov 2013 1358.25 +3.25 +0.24%
Soybeans Jan 2014 1358 +2.75 +0.20%
Soybeans Mar 2014 1340.5 +2.25 +0.17%
Soybeans May 2014 1313 +3.5 +0.27%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1307 +4 +0.31%
Soybean Meal Sep 2013 460.9 -1.6 -0.35%
Soybean Meal Oct 2013 429.2 +0.8 +0.19%
Soybean Meal Dec 2013 428 +2.8 +0.66%
Soybean Oil Sep 2013 42.65 -0.08 -0.19%
Soybean Oil Oct 2013 42.72 -0.09 -0.21%
Soybean Oil Dec 2013 42.96 -0.11 -0.26%
Corn Sep 2013 479.75 +5 +1.05%
Corn Dec 2013 472.5 +3.5 +0.75%
Corn Mar 2014 484.75 +3 +0.62%
Corn May 2014 493 +3 +0.61%
Corn Jul 2014 499.5 +2.75 +0.55%
Oats Sep 2013 371 +3.5 +0.95%
Oats Dec 2013 322.25 +3.5 +1.10%
Oats Mar 2014 326 +4 +1.24%
Oats May 2014 327.5 +3.5 +1.08%
Oats Jul 2014 318.5 +3.5 +1.11%
Wheat Sep 2013 635 +1.25 +0.20%
Wheat Dec 2013 648 +1.5 +0.23%
Wheat Mar 2014 659 +1.25 +0.19%
Wheat May 2014 666 +0.75 +0.11%
Wheat Jul 2014 661.5 +1.5 +0.23%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2013 705.5 +4.5 +0.64%
Spring Wheat Dec 2013 710 +4.25 +0.60%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 723.5 +4 +0.56%
Spring Wheat May 2014 731 +2.5 +0.34%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 737.5 +2.5 +0.34%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013 708.25 +1.5 +0.21%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 694.75 unch 0.00%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 700.75 -1.5 -0.21%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 703.75 -2.75 -0.39%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 693.25 -4.5 -0.64%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 17 cents at $107.56 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 96.74 cents US, up from 96.55 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0337 Cdn.
The reduced likelihood of an immediate U.S. missile strike against Syria supported stocks markets. The TSX was weakened by a sell off of potash company shares. Speculation that potash producers Uralkali and Belaruskali might end their spat and start marketing together again was today dismissed by Uralkali.
But the fall in potash companies was offset by rising financials and energy shares.
In early tallies —
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 0.94 points, or 0.01 percent, at 12,825.42.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 135.23 points or 0.89 percent, to 15,326.29.
The S&P 500 gained 5.08 points or 0.3 percent, to 1,689.07.
The Nasdaq Composite dropped 4.011 points or 0.11 percent, to 3,725.01.
