Canola gains again as Midwest weather dominates market

Canola, soybeans and wheat futures rose Wednesday but corn closed mixed on a Midwest weather forecast shift to slightly more moisture.

July canola closed at $624.90, up $3.70.

November closed at $583.70, up $2.20.

While the forecast change calmed the corn market after a 10 percent rise over the last two days, soybeans kept climbing on thoughts that the weather is not accommodating second crop soybean seeding.

To reach the U.S. soybean seeded area forecast, farmers have to reseed a fair number of winter wheat fields immediately after harvest to soybeans and current soil moisture is working against that.

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Oilseeds were also supported by strong palm oil buying ahead of the Ramadan holiday month that this year begins July 20.

Wheat was supported by very hot weather in Russia and Ukraine.

As we reported here yesterday, SovEcon slashed its Russian wheat estimate to 50 million tonnes from 56 million last year. USDA’s current forecast for Russia is 56 million.

The U.S. Federal Reserve announced today it was continuing Operation Twist to the end of the year. It is designed to pressure interest rates lower and provide a little stimulus to the economy, but its effect is marginal.

It also slashed its estimates for U.S. economic growth this year to a range of 1.9 percent to 2.4 percent, down from an April projection of 2.4 percent to 2.9 percent. It cut forecasts for 2013 and 2014, as well. In addition, Fed officials said they expect the job market to make slower progress than they did just a couple months ago,

Winnipeg (per tonne)

Canola Jul 12 $624.90, up $3.70 +0.60%

Canola Nov 12 $583.70, up $2.20 +0.38%

Canola Jan 13 $587.00, up $2.00 +0.34%

Canola Mar 13 $589.80, up $1.60 +0.27%

The best basis in the par region the previous day was $14 over the July contract, said ICE Futures Canada.

The 14-day relative strength index was 61.

Western Barley Jul 12 $237.00, unchanged

Western Barley Oct 12 $208.00, down $2.00 -0.95%

Milling Wheat Oct 12 $252.70, unchanged

Milling Wheat Dec 12 $260.00, unchanged

Milling Wheat Mar 13 $269.00, unchanged

Durum Wheat Oct 12 $275.50, unchanged

Durum Wheat Dec 12 $280.00, unchanged

Durum Wheat Mar 13 $286.60, unchanged

Barley Oct 12 $183.00, unchanged

Barley Dec 12 $185.70, unchanged

Barley Mar 13 $188.70, unchanged

Chicago (per bushel)

Soybeans (P) Jul 12 $14.465, up 12.75 cents +0.89%

Soybeans (P) Aug 12 $14.37, up 15.75 +1.11%

Soybeans (P) Sep 12 $14.1025, up 12.25 +0.88%

Soybeans (P) Nov 12 $13.955, up 11.0 +0.79%

Corn (P) Jul 12 $6.1175, down 0.75 -0.12%

Corn (P) Sep 12 $5.6875, up 1.25 +0.22%

Corn (P) Dec 12 $5.665, up 3.0 +0.53%

Oats (P) Jul 12 $3.25, up 0.54 +0.15%

Oats (P) Sep 12 $3.0275, down 4.0 -1.30%

Oats (P) Dec 12 $2.955, up 1.25 +0.42%

Minneapolis (per bushel)

Spring Wheat Jul 12 $844.25, up 45.75 +5.73%

Spring Wheat Sep 12 $78375, up 19.25 +2.52%

Spring Wheat Dec 12 $7.8825, up 18.25 +2.37%

Nearby light crude in New York fell $2.23, to $81.80 per barrel on rising crude stocks and disappointment that the Fed was not more aggressive in its stimulus plan.

The Bank of Canada noon rate for the loonie was 98.10 cents US, down slightly from 98.25.

The U.S. dollar was $1.0194 Cdn.

In early tallies:

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down 29.02 points, or 0.25 percent, at 11,759.34.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 13.09 points, or 0.10 percent, to close at 12,824.24.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was down 2.28 points, or 0.17 percent, at 1,355.70.

The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.69 point, or 0.02 percent, to close at 2,930.45.