Canola futures unchanged on week despite big yields

Canola futures edged higher Friday, supported by soybeans, which also rose ahead of Monday’s USDA grain stocks report.
The likelihood of a bumper harvest in Canada and expectation of rapid progress on the U.S. Midwest harvest kept a lid on oilseed gains.
November canola closed at $484 per tonne, a gain of 80 cents from Thursday but unchanged from the close the previous Friday.
Corn drifted lower but wheat edged up, supported by the strong pace of U.S. wheat exports.
Wheat was also supported by news from Ukraine that heavy fall rain is delaying the seeding of the winter wheat crop. Parts of Russia are also too wet.

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The head of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation told Reuters that fields were too wet to seed and the optimum time for sowing had passed. He said it was possible that only 7.4 million acres would be sown, down from the government’s plan of 19.8 million. That would be a serious blow to Ukraine’s crop and a major support to wheat prices in 2014-15. Most of Ukraine’s wheat is winter sown.
Meanwhile the head of Russia’s grain union forecast the wheat harvest there at 50 million, which is a little smaller than the current USDA forecast.
Also, rain in Russia is delaying seeding of next year’s crop, with 18.3 million acres in the ground, down from 27.2 million at the same time last year. SovEcon said the amount of area seeded was the lowest in the last 13 years for this time of year.
Ahead of USDA’s report on Monday, the average trade estimate of U.S. Sept. 1 soybean stocks was 124 million bushels, a nine-year low, with estimates ranging from 106 million to 155 million.
Rain on the Prairies appears to have been heaviest north of Moose Jaw, Sask., and near Swan River, Man. After the delays this week, western Canadian farmers are looking forward to wrapping up harvest. The forecast for the coming week is mostly dry, although rain could develop in Manitoba next Thursday.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 13    484.00    +0.80    +0.17%
Canola Jan 14    493.30    +0.80    +0.16%
Canola Mar 14    500.60    +0.40    +0.08%
Canola May 14    506.70    +0.40    +0.08%
Canola Jul 14    512.30    +0.10    +0.02%

Milling Wheat Oct 13    239.00    +3.00    +1.27%
Milling Wheat Dec 13    242.00    +2.00    +0.83%
Milling Wheat Mar 14    248.00    +2.00    +0.81%

Durum Wheat Oct 13    243.00    -6.00    -2.41%
Durum Wheat Dec 13    247.00    -10.00    -3.89%
Durum Wheat Mar 14    253.00    -10.00    -3.80%

Barley Oct 13    158.30    unch    0.00%
Barley Dec 13    161.30    unch    0.00%
Barley Mar 14    163.30    unch    0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans Nov 13    1319.75    +3.0    +0.23%
Soybeans Jan 14    1321.5    +2.75    +0.21%
Soybeans Mar 14    1298.5    +0.50    +0.04%
Soybeans May 14    1273.25    -2.0    -0.16%
Soybeans Jul 14    1264.5    -3.50    -0.28%

Soybean Meal Oct 13    419.9    +3.5    +0.84%
Soybean Meal Dec 13    418.3    +3.4    +0.82%
Soybean Meal Jan 14    416.2    +3.0    +0.73%

Soybean Oil Oct 13    41.51    -0.28    -0.67%
Soybean Oil Dec 13    41.81    -0.24    -0.57%
Soybean Oil Jan 14    42.11    -0.23    -0.54%

Corn Dec 13    454.0    -2.75    -0.60%
Corn Mar 14    466.5    -3.0    -0.64%
Corn May 14    474.5    -3.0    -0.63%
Corn Jul 14    481.0    -2.75    -0.57%
Corn Sep 14    484.5    -2.0    -0.41%

Oats Dec 13    316.75    -1.75    -0.55%
Oats Mar 14    310.75    -2.0    -0.64%
Oats May 14    311.5    -2.0    -0.64%
Oats Jul 14    308.5    -0.25    -0.08%
Oats Sep 14    313.5    -0.25    -0.08%

Wheat Dec 13    683.0    +4.75    +0.70%
Wheat Mar 14    691.5    +3.25    +0.47%
Wheat May 14    694.25    +2.0    +0.29%
Wheat Jul 14    684.25    +1.0    +0.15%
Wheat Sep 14    688.5    +0.50    +0.07%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 13    731.5    +7    +0.97%
Spring Wheat Mar 14    740.75    +6.75    +0.92%
Spring Wheat May 14    744.25    +5.75    +0.78%
Spring Wheat Jul 14    745.5    +4    +0.54%
Spring Wheat Sep 14    749    +4.25    +0.57%

Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 13    731.75    +4.50    +0.62%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 14    733.0    +4    +0.55%
KCBT Red Wheat May 14    733.75    +4.75    +0.65%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 14    716.5    +4.50    +0.63%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 14    722.25    +3    +0.42%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped 16 cents at $102.87 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 97.09 cents US, up from 96.89 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0300 Cdn.
Concerns about the U.S. budget crisis pressured U.S. stocks, but in Canada gains in financial stocks lifted the TSX.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index unofficially closed up 2.46 points, 0.02 percent, at 12,844.08.
The Dow Jones industrial average was down 70.06 points, or 0.46 percent, at 15,258.24.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was down 6.93 points, or 0.41 percent, at 1,691.74.
The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 5.83 points, or 0.15 percent, at 3,781.59.
For the week, the TSX composite ended up 0.3 percent, the Dow was down 1.3 percent, the S&P 500 fell 1.1 percent and the Nasdaq rose 0.2 percent.