Canola futures rally on stronger soy oil and talk of exports

Reading Time: 3 minutes

Published: September 24, 2015

Oilseeds, including canola, were supported Thursday by strong weekly U.S. exports and a commitment from China to buy more than 13 million tonnes of soybeans.

In a pre arranged signing ceremony associated with the visit of China’s President Xi Jinping to the United States, several Chinese companies signed 24 contracts for sales in the current crop year and next year.

The total value is US$5.3 billion.

U.S. soybean sales to China for the 2015-16 (Sep-Aug) season are off to the slowest start in seven years amid abundant global supplies and declining prices.

Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade are hovering near 6 ½ year lows.

November canola closed at $471.70, up $5.40.

The Canadian dollar edged below US75 cents and that also supported canola prices as did talk of fresh canola export business.

Saskatchewan’s weekly crop report today said 48 percent of the canola crop was in the bin.

Counting all crops, 60 percent of the 2015 harvest is now complete and 28 percent has been swathed or is ready to straight-cut.

Those numbers exceed the five-year average of 56 percent combined and 27 percent swathed.

Soybeans edged higher on the export news in the U.S. and a technical bounce after hitting its lowest point since March 2009 in overnight trade.

Soy oil climbed more than two percent on technical signals.

Wheat and corn closed lower.

December spring wheat fell about 2.5 percent and Chicago was down about two percent on ideas that American prices are too high relative to other international sellers.

Russian officials are talking about relaxing their wheat export tax as of Oct. 1 because of a good harvest this year. They might eliminate the tax on durum.

That would further increase already brisk competition in the wheat market.

The International Grains Council raised its forecast of 2015-16 world wheat production to a record 727 million tonnes, from 720 million previously.

Weekly U.S. wheat export sales were below expectation.

Corn fell largely in sympathy with wheat.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 43 cents to US$44.91 per barrel.

The Bank of Canada’s Canadian dollar rate at noon was US74.90 cents, down from 75.10 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3351.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2015       471.70       +5.40       +1.16%

Canola Jan 2016       476.70       +5.50       +1.17%

Canola Mar 2016       478.40       +5.40       +1.14%

Canola May 2016       478.20       +5.40       +1.14%

Canola Jul 2016       477.00       +5.00       +1.06%

 

Milling Wheat Oct 2015       234.00       -4.00       -1.68%

Milling Wheat Dec 2015       238.00       -4.00       -1.65%

Milling Wheat Mar 2016       243.00       -4.00       -1.62%

 

Durum Wheat Oct 2015       330.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2015       330.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Mar 2016       335.00       unch       0.00%

 

Barley Oct 2015       184.00       unch       0.00%

Barley Dec 2015       184.00       unch       0.00%

Barley Mar 2016       186.00       unch       0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Soybeans Nov 2015       868       +4.25       +0.49%

Soybeans Jan 2016       872.5       +4.25       +0.49%

Soybeans Mar 2016       876.75       +4.25       +0.49%

Soybeans May 2016       879.5       +4       +0.46%

Soybeans Jul 2016       884.25       +4.5       +0.51%

Soybeans Aug 2016       883.75       +4.75       +0.54%

 

Soybean Meal Oct 2015       302.4       -0.7       -0.23%

Soybean Meal Dec 2015       301.9       -0.1       -0.03%

Soybean Meal Jan 2016       300.9       +0.2       +0.07%

 

Soybean Oil Oct 2015       26.98       +0.65       +2.47%

Soybean Oil Dec 2015       27.18       +0.64       +2.41%

Soybean Oil Jan 2016       27.49       +0.63       +2.35%

 

Corn Dec 2015       381.5       -1.75       -0.46%

Corn Mar 2016       392.75       -2       -0.51%

Corn May 2016       400       -2       -0.50%

Corn Jul 2016       405.5       -2.25       -0.55%

Corn Sep 2016       398.5       -2.25       -0.56%

 

Oats Dec 2015       226.25       -3.75       -1.63%

Oats Mar 2016       230.25       -3.5       -1.50%

Oats May 2016       234.5       -3       -1.26%

Oats Jul 2016       235.25       -3       -1.26%

Oats Sep 2016       235.25       -3       -1.26%

 

Wheat Dec 2015       497.25       -10.25       -2.02%

Wheat Mar 2016       504.25       -10.75       -2.09%

Wheat May 2016       508.75       -10.75       -2.07%

Wheat Jul 2016       512       -10.75       -2.06%

Wheat Sep 2016       520.25       -10.5       -1.98%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 2015       514       -12.75       -2.42%

Spring Wheat Mar 2016       527.75       -12.25       -2.27%

Spring Wheat May 2016       538       -12.25       -2.23%

Spring Wheat Jul 2016       548       -12.25       -2.19%

Spring Wheat Sep 2016       559       -11.25       -1.97%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015       490       -11.75       -2.34%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016       504.5       -11.5       -2.23%

Hard Red Wheat May 2016       514.5       -11.25       -2.14%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016       523.5       -11.5       -2.15%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016       537       -12       -2.19%

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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