Canola futures mixed Tuesday as Ag Canada forecasts bigger 2013 crop

A stronger loonie contributed to a slight weakness in March canola futures on Tuesday.

Trade was fairly quiet. U.S. soy and corn futures edged higher on continuing dry weather in Argentina that is stressing crops.

Old crop canola was higher early in the day but then could not break through technical resistance at $621 per tonne and fell back.

Agriculture Canada late Monday issued a forecast for 2013-14 crops. It is based on an assumption of average weather.

It sees canola acreage dropping one percent but production is set to rise by 16 percent due to a recovery in yields.

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Exports and domestic crush are expected to rise thanks to the increased supply.

However, carry out stocks by the end of 2013-14 are expected to rise to 600,000 tonnes from 350,000 this year.

That is still historically tight with a stocks-to-use ratio of only 3.9 percent, up from an incredibly tight 2.5 percent at the end of the current crop year.

March canola closed at $617.70, down 10 cents

May closed at $607.10, up 10 cents

November closed at $556.00, down $2.40

Wheat initially was up on a reduction in the condition of the Kansas wheat crop since December. Conditions are even worse in Nebraska and Oklahoma. Nebraska’s crop fell to eight percent good to excellent, down from 14 percent at the end of December. Nebraska’s poor-very poor rose to 50 percent. Oklahoma ratings were pegged at zero percent excellent, five percent good and 69 percent poor to very poor.

However, wheat closed lower on profit taking and on Agriculture Canada’s forecast issued late yesterday that spring wheat acreage in Canada will increase eight percent and production will rise by five percent to 23.8 million tonnes.

In the Jan. 31 Western Producer we have a story on global wheat production. In it, Drew Lerner or World Weather Inc. and Austin Damiani of Frontier Futures said they were fairly unconcerned about the current state of the U.S. hard red winter wheat crop. They think spring rain will rescue the crop. They also see large wheat production in Europe and the Black Sea region.

Agriculture Canada expects farmers will also increase durum, barley and soybean acreage but decrease oats, flax and especially lentils, particularly large green types.

Lentil area is expected to drop 18.5 percent to 2.05 million acres.

Winnipeg ICE Futures (per tonne)

Canola Mar 13 $617.70, down $0.10 -0.02%

Canola May 13 $607.10, up $0.10 +0.02%

Canola Jul 13 $596.80, up $0.50 +0.08%

Canola Nov 13 $556.00, down $2.40 -0.43%

Milling Wheat Mar 13 $291.00, unchanged

Milling Wheat May 13 $294.00, unchanged

Milling Wheat Jul 13 $296.00, unchanged

Durum Wheat Mar 13 $312.40, unchanged

Durum Wheat May 13 $316.40, unchanged

Durum Wheat Jul 13 $319.40, unchanged

Durum Wheat Oct 13 $304.70, unchanged

Barley Mar 13 $241.50, unchanged

Barley May 13 $242.50, unchanged

Barley Jul 13 $243.00, unchanged

Barley Oct 13 $243.00, unchanged

Chicago (per bushel)

Soybeans (P) Mar 13 $14.5175, up 4.0 cents +0.28%

Soybeans (P) May 13 $14.3975, up 6.25 +0.44%

Soybeans (P) Jul 13 $14.295, up 6.75 +0.47%

Soybeans (P) Aug 13 $14.02, up 6.25 +0.45%

Soybeans (P) Sep 13 $13.5325, up 6.0 +0.45%

Soybeans (P) Nov 13 $13.1275, up 2.75 +0.21%

Corn (P) Mar 13 $7.295, up 0.25 +0.03%

Corn (P) May 13 $7.30, up 0.75 +0.10%

Corn (P) Jul 13 $7.205, unchanged

Corn (P) Sep 13 $6.105, down 3.0 -0.49%

Corn (P) Dec 13 $5.87, down 3.0 -0.51%

Oats (P) Mar 13 $3.60, down 1.25 -0.35%

Oats (P) May 13 $3.6725, down 1.75 -0.47%

Oats (P) Jul 13 $3.7225, down 1.25 -0.33%

Oats (P) Sep 13 $3.72, down 1.25 -0.33%

Oats (P) Dec 13 $3.6875, down 1.25 -0.34%

Minneapolis (per bushel)

Spring Wheat Mar 13 $8.61, down 5.25 cents -0.63%

Spring Wheat May 13 $8.7275, down 6.0 -0.68%

Spring Wheat Jul 13 $8.8275, down 4.25 -0.48%

Spring Wheat Sep 13 $8825, down 3.25 -0.37%

The Bank of Canada noon rate for the Canuck buck was 99.71 cents US, up from 99.31 cents the day before.

The U.S. dollar was $1.0029 Cdn.

A big jump in U.S. home prices in November indicated the housing market is on mend. That helped lift oil prices.

Nearby crude oil futures in New York jumped $1.13 to $97.57 per barrel.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index rose 14.65 points, or 0.11 percent, to close at 12,830.56.

The Dow Jones industrial average climbed 72.49 points, or 0.52 percent, to 13,954.42.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 7.66 points, or 0.51 percent, to 1,507.84.

The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 0.64 points, or 0.02 percent, at 3,153.66.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is meeting today and tomorrow. After the meeting it will make a statement about the economy, interest rates and its efforts to stimulate the economy.