Canola futures little changed as market consolidates recent gains

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Published: April 14, 2016

Canola futures were virtually unchanged on Thursday in a day of consolidation after strong gains on Wednesday.

The Canadian dollar weakened a little, helping to keep canola steady while the soybean complex fell about 0.8 percent after rising about two percent on Wednesday to an eight month high.

Soybeans on Wednesday were supported by solid export demand for American soy and by excess rain in Argentina that is causing problems for farmers trying to harvest the soybean crop.

Soybeans have rallied almost a dollar a bushel in the last month and American farmers this week began to strongly sell old crop and new crop soy.

“Farmer selling of beans in the U.S. has been extraordinary this week, both old crop and new crop,” ED&F Man Capital analyst Charlie Sernatinger wrote in a note to clients.

“We have already had more new-crop beans sold at this time this year than we had sold by the end of July last year,” Sernatinger said.

Corn edged up fractionally higher on Thursday and front month Kansas and Minneapolis wheat also crept higher.

Worries about dry weather in central Brazil where the second corn crop is developing provided some support to corn.

Southern Manitoba is expected to get up to an inch of accumulated moisture today and Friday. Southeastern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan are also expected to get rain.

However, much of Alberta and Saskatchewan’s central and northern grain belt is expected to remain dry over the coming seven days. Temperatures are expected to warm to above normal levels in the coming days.

The western portion of the U.S. southern plains is bracing for severe weather that could bring up to eight inches of rain to some locations over the next three days.

Until now, the region has been extremely dry through 2016 sparking wild fires and with the drought stress starting to downgrade the condition of the hard red winter wheat crop.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 26 cents to US$41.50 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US77.91 cents, down from 78.17 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2836.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola May 2016   480.10   +0.40   +0.08%

Canola Jul 2016   484.70   -0.20   -0.04%

Canola Nov 2016  483.00   unch   0.00%

Canola Jan 2017   487.00   -0.50   -0.10%

Canola Mar 2017   488.50   -0.50   -0.10%

 

Milling Wheat May 2016   234.00   -1.00   -0.43%

Milling Wheat Jul 2016   233.00   -1.00   -0.43%

Milling Wheat Oct 2016   230.00   -1.00   -0.43%

 

Durum Wheat May 2016   297.00   -1.00   -0.34%

Durum Wheat Jul 2016   292.00   -1.00   -0.34%

Durum Wheat Oct 2016   281.00   -1.00   -0.35%

 

Barley May 2016   172.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Jul 2016   174.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Oct 2016   174.00   unch 0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans May 2016   948   -7.75   -0.81%

Soybeans Jul 2016   956.25   -8.25   -0.86%

Soybeans Aug 2016   958   -8.25   -0.85%

Soybeans Sep 2016   957.25   -7.5   -0.78%

Soybeans Nov 2016   959.25   -6.75   -0.70%

Soybeans Jan 2017   962.5   -7.5   -0.77%

 

Soybean Meal May 2016   290.1   -2.6   -0.89%

Soybean Meal Jul 2016   292.9   -2.3   -0.78%

Soybean Meal Aug 2016   294.1   -2   -0.68%

 

Soybean Oil May 2016   33.69   -0.27   -0.80%

Soybean Oil Jul 2016   33.97   -0.27   -0.79%

Soybean Oil Aug 2016   34.07   -0.26   -0.76%

 

Corn May 2016   374   +0.5   +0.13%

Corn Jul 2016   378   +1   +0.27%

Corn Sep 2016   379.5   +0.5   +0.13%

Corn Dec 2016   385.5   +1.5   +0.39%

Corn Mar 2017   394.5   +1.25   +0.32%

 

Oats May 2016   193   +1   +0.52%

Oats Jul 2016   201   +1   +0.50%

Oats Sep 2016   209   +1   +0.48%

Oats Dec 2016   218   +1.5   +0.69%

Oats Mar 2017   226.75   +1.5   +0.67%

 

Wheat May 2016   459.75   -1.75   -0.38%

Wheat Jul 2016   466.75   -0.75   -0.16%

Wheat Sep 2016   476.75   -0.25   -0.05%

Wheat Dec 2016   492.75   +1   +0.20%

Wheat Mar 2017   508.5   +1   +0.20%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat May 2016   522.5   +2.5   +0.48%

Spring Wheat Jul 2016   527.5   +0.75   +0.14%

Spring Wheat Sep 2016   535.25   unch   0.00%

Spring Wheat Dec 2016   547   -0.25   -0.05%

Spring Wheat Mar 2017   558.25   -1.25   -0.22%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat May 2016   455   +0.5   +0.11%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016   465.75   +0.75   +0.16%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016   480   +1   +0.21%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016   500.5   +1.5   +0.30%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017   514.75   +2.25   +0.44%

 

 

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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