Canola acted like the Winnipeg Blue Bombers Tuesday, getting smacked down badly with little resistance.
The November Winnipeg canola futures contract fell $18.10 per tonne to 475.50 per tonne, or a decline of 41 cents per bushel to about $10.78.
The fall of canola was far worse than for either soybeans or soybean oil, which both fell about half as much as canola in percentage terms. Soybeans, which have often in history been lower-priced than canola due to canola’s much higher proportion of oil to meal, now hold 90-cent premium.
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The market is not worried about obtaining canola any time soon.
Good growing conditions across Western Canada in recent weeks, with an ideal flowering season ending and reports of big, fat pods dangling off canola plants have removed most anxieties about 2013-14 prairie supplies, while there are still some anxieties about North American soybean supplies, although those too are rapidly alleviating.
Generally, crop futures prices have been weak for ages, steadily grinding lower and lower as both relief from last year’s crop production problems and an overwhelming sense of bearishness have come to dominate the grains.
As Michael Seery of Seery Futures said in a commentary Tuesday: “I do believe we’re just in the beginning of a major downward price cycle in the grain market heading back to prices we haven’t seen in years.”
Overall commodity markets fell Tuesday, with the exception of the meats.
Equity markets fell Tuesday.
The Canadian dollar was weaker compared to the U.S. dollar.
ICE Futures Canada, dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2013 475.50-18.10 -3.67%
Canola Jan 2014 480.30-17.10 -3.44%
Canola Mar 2014 485.70-16.50 -3.29%
Canola May 2014 490.00-14.90 -2.95%
Canola Jul 2014 492.90-14.60 -2.88%
Milling Wheat Oct 2013 257.00unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013 260.00unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 267.00unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2013 296.00unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2013 300.00unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 310.00unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2013 189.00unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2013 194.00unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2014 194.00unch 0.00%
American crops in cents US per bushel, soybean meal in $US per short ton and soybean oil in
cents US per pound
Chicago
Soybeans Aug 2013 1324.25 -5.5 -0.41%
Soybeans Sep 2013 1193.5-14 -1.16%
Soybeans Nov 2013 1167.25 -16 -1.35%
Soybeans Jan 2014 1174 -16 -1.34%
Soybeans Mar 2014 1179.25 -15.5 -1.30%
Soybeans May 2014 1180.75 -15 -1.25%
Soybean Meal Aug 2013 396 -6.6 -1.64%
Soybean Meal Sep 2013 371.6 -5.5 -1.46%
Soybean Meal Oct 2013 348.8 -6 -1.69%
Soybean Oil Aug 2013 42.11 -0.61 -1.43%
Soybean Oil Sep 2013 42.21 -0.61 -1.42%
Soybean Oil Oct 2013 42.33 -0.62 -1.44%
Corn Sep 2013 472.25+3 +0.64%
Corn Dec 2013 459.25-1.25 -0.27%
Corn Mar 2014 472.5 -1 -0.21%
Corn May 2014 480.25-0.75 -0.16%
Corn Jul 2014 486 -1.25 -0.26%
Oats Sep 2013 339.75+4 +1.19%
Oats Dec 2013 324.75-0.25 -0.08%
Oats Mar 2014 329.5 -1.25 -0.38%
Oats May 2014 329.5 -2 -0.60%
Oats Jul 2014 334.5 -2 -0.59%
Wheat Sep 2013 650.5 +5.25 +0.81%
Wheat Dec 2013 662.75+5 +0.76%
Wheat Mar 2014 673.5 +5.5 +0.82%
Wheat May 2014 679.75+5.75 +0.85%
Wheat Jul 2014 675 +6.25 +0.93%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2013 739.5 +5.75 +0.78%
Spring Wheat Dec 2013 748.25+5.5 +0.74%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 760 +5.5 +0.73%
Spring Wheat May 2014 768.5 +5.25 +0.69%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 774.5 +5.5 +0.72%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013 702 +6.5 +0.93%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 712.25+5 +0.71%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 720.75+4.5 +0.63%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 721.5 +4.25 +0.59%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 706 +5.75 +0.82%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped $1.26 at $105.30 US per barrel.
The Bank of Canada rate for the loonie at noon was 96.35 cents US, up from 96.32 cents the
previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0293 Cdn.
