Canola futures fall 10 percent on week as weather risk lessens

Reading Time: 4 minutes

Published: July 22, 2016

Forecasts for more benign weather in August in the Midwest weighed down soybean futures Friday and that pressured canola lower.

But soybeans closed above the low of the day.

Worries about the wheat crop in France supported wheat futures.

November soybeans and canola both wound up down 2.4 percent on the day.

Canola remains under pressure from indications of generally good yield potential, although there are local issues with intense summer storms and problems associated with excessive moisture in some areas.

An area from central to northeast Saskatchewan could get rain accumulation Saturday amounting from about 10 to 25 millimetres. The moisture will then moved into the northern grain belt of Manitoba on Sunday.

Read Also

PhiBer Manufacturing won the AgTech innovation award for its drone carrier at the Ag in Motion innovation program, with Saskatchewan Minister of Agriculture Daryl Harrison, right, presenting the award. Photo: Jonah Grignon

Ag in Motion innovation awards showcase top 2025 ag technology

The 2025 Ag in Motion Innovation Awards celebrated winners across five categories: agronomics, agtech, business solutions, environmental sustainability and equipment.

It was a bad week for soybeans, which fell 6.5 percent. Soymeal fell 6.6 percent and soyoil dropped 2.3 percent on the week.

November canola fell 10.3 percent on the week.

Domestic demand remains strong.

Weekly canola crush to July 20 was 181,980 tonnes, down about five percent from last week, but still strong at 88 percent of capacity. That puts the total crush for the year at 8.02 million tonnes. With another 10 days before then end of the crop year, the annual crush should exceed Agriculture Canada’s forecast of 8.1 million tonnes.

The weekly export numbers from Canadian Grain Commission for week 50 showed 135,200 tonnes of canola were exported, down from 235,900 the week before.

The export total for the year will likely come in very close to the 10 million tonnes that Agriculture Canada has forecast.

Chicago December corn rose 0.29 percent today on short covering after prices hit the lowest level in nearly two years.

For the week, Chicago Board of Trade December corn futures fell 4.6 percent, hitting their lowest level since October 2014.

Corn today was also supported by rising wheat.

New crop Minneapolis spring wheat rose 1.74 percent and Chicago climbed about two percent on short covering.

Also, there was modest support from surging European wheat futures as traders there worried about the condition of the crop in France.

The harvest has reached areas that traditionally are among the most productive, but results this year are worse than expected.

ODA Groupe cut its estimate for the coming crop in France to less than 30 million tonnes, a volume not seen since 2003, while Agritel said it was working on the basis of 32 million but would not be surprised if it was below 30 million, Reuters reported.

Over the week, European wheat futures jumped 10 percent higher.

But gains in North America were held in check by record yields in the U.S. winter wheat crop and prospects for a big spring crop. Also, global supplies of wheat are ample.

Over the week, Chicago wheat rose 0.2 percent. Kansas hard red winter wheat futures for September delivery rose 1.5 percent this week and Minneapolis spring wheat dipped 0.1 percent.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York today were down 56 cents to US$44.19 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US75.88 cents, down from 76.59 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3178.

U.S. stock markets closed higher on Friday, posting their fourth consecutive week of gains.

The TSX composite closed up 34.83 points or 0.24 percent at 14,600.66.

The Dow Jones industrial average today rose 53.56 points, or 0.29 percent, to 18,570.79, the S&P 500 gained 9.86 points, or 0.46 percent, to 2,175.03 and the Nasdaq Composite added 26.26 points, or 0.52 percent, to 5,100.16.

For the week the TSX composite gained 0.8 percent, the S&P 500 climbed 0.6 percent, the Dow edged up 0.3 percent and the Nasdaq surged 1.4 percent.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2016   451.50   -11.10   -2.40%

Canola Jan 2017   458.90   -11.40   -2.42%

Canola Mar 2017   465.20   -11.50   -2.41%

Canola May 2017   468.60   -11.70   -2.44%

Canola Jul 2017   471.90   -11.60   -2.40%

 

Milling Wheat Oct 2016   208.00   +3.00   +1.46%

Milling Wheat Dec 2016   212.00   +2.00   +0.95%

 

Durum Wheat Oct 2016   267.00   unch   0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2016   270.00   unch   0.00%

 

Barley Oct 2016   150.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Dec 2016   150.00   unch   0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Aug 2016   1006.50   -26.00   -2.52%

Soybeans Sep 2016   998.75   -26.75   -2.61%

Soybeans Nov 2016  988.25   -24.25   -2.40%

Soybeans Jan 2017   989.25   -23.50   -2.32%

Soybeans Mar 2017   982.25   -22.25   -2.22%

Soybeans May 2017   978.25   -21.00   -2.10%

 

Soybean Meal Aug 2016   346.70   -5.80   -1.65%

Soybean Meal Sep 2016   345.80   -5.70   -1.62%

Soybean Meal Oct 2016   343.10   -5.70   -1.63%

 

Soybean Oil Aug 2016   30.21   -0.85   -2.74%

Soybean Oil Sep 2016   30.31   -0.88   -2.82%

Soybean Oil Oct 2016   30.43   -0.89   -2.84%

 

Corn Sep 2016   335.00   +0.75   +0.22%

Corn Dec 2016   341.75   +1.00   +0.29%

Corn Mar 2017   351.50   +1.25   +0.36%

Corn May 2017   357.00   +1.00   +0.28%

Corn Jul 2017   362.50   +1.75   +0.49%

 

Oats Sep 2016   207.50   -0.25   -0.12%

Oats Dec 2016   204.00   -0.50   -0.24%

Oats Mar 2017   206.75   -1.50   -0.72%

Oats May 2017   211.25   -1.50   -0.71%

Oats Jul 2017   217.00   -1.50   -0.69%

 

Wheat Sep 2016   425.25   +7.50   +1.80%

Wheat Dec 2016   450.25   +9.00   +2.04%

Wheat Mar 2017   475.25   +10.75   +2.31%

Wheat May 2017   487.25   +10.25   +2.15%

Wheat Jul 2017   494.75   +9.50   +1.96%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Sep 2016   495.25   +9.00   +1.85%

Spring Wheat Dec 2016   511.00   +8.75   +1.74%

Spring Wheat Mar 2017   526.75   +8.50   +1.64%

Spring Wheat May 2017   536.75   +9.00   +1.71%

Spring Wheat Jul 2017   546.25   +8.75   +1.63%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016   419.00   +11.50   +2.82%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016   445.00   +11.50   +2.65%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017   462.00   +11.75   +2.61%

Hard Red Wheat May 2017   473.00   +12.00   +2.60%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017   482.75   +12.00   +2.55%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound

Live Cattle (P) Aug 2016   109.95   +2.43   +2.26%

Live Cattle (P) Oct 2016   108.08   +2.38   +2.25%

Live Cattle (P) Dec 2016   109.20   +1.93   +1.80%

 

Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2016   137.20   +2.80   +2.08%

Feeder Cattle (P) Sep 2016   135.82   +2.37   +1.78%

Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 2016   134.80   +2.10   +1.58%

 

Lean Hogs (P) Aug 2016   75.28   +0.83   +1.11%

Lean Hogs (P) Oct 2016   63.90   +1.63   +2.62%

Lean Hogs (P) Dec 2016   58.48   +2.03   +3.60%

 

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

explore

Stories from our other publications