Canola futures edge up as Canada-China talks proceed

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Published: August 10, 2016

Canola edged higher Wednesday, keeping its rally going for a fifth consecutive day.

November canola climbed just $1.20 a tonne to $460.90. Over the five days it has climbed about $14.

Support over the period has come from a similarly modest soybean rally fueled by 10 consecutive days of export orders. However, there was no export business today and that helped to nudge down soybeans.

Canola is also supported by concern about excessive rain across Western Canada creating disease and flooded low spots.

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Keeping a lid on canola is uncertainty about the pace of exports to China if it lowers its dockage limit to one percent from 2.5 percent.

Officials from the Canadian Food Inspection Agency, the agriculture and trade ministries and industry representatives are in China this week to try to work out a compromise.

Wet fields and daytime heating will likely continue to brew up local rain storms but as for larger systems we might be moving toward a little drier trend over the next several days.

In the U.S. Midwest rain is expected over the next several days and that should be good for the soybean crop that is setting pods.

While soybeans dipped, soy oil futures rose again.

Chicago soft wheat jumped 4.75 percent on short covering and ideas that export demand might pick up as western Europe struggles with reduced soft wheat crops and poor quality because of excess rain.

Minneapolis December spring wheat rose just one percent and Kansas was up 2.25 percent.

Corn edged up a fraction of a penny as traders adjusted positions ahead of Friday’s production report.

Most of the trade expects the USDA will increase its corn and soybean yield forecasts to near record levels.

However, today Lanworth, a division of Thomson Reuters, projected corn yield at just 165.6 bushels an acre, down from the USDA’s current estimate of 168.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down $1.06 to US$41.71 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US76.57 cents, up from 76.24 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3060.

The weaker oil price weighed down stock markets.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index ended down 26.19 points, or 0.18 percent, at 14,775.04.

The Dow Jones industrial average declined 0.2 percent to finish at 18,495.66 points and the S&P 500 lost 0.29 percent, to 2,175.49 points.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.4 percent to 5,204.59.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2016   460.90   +1.20   +0.26%

Canola Jan 2017   466.60   +0.70   +0.15%

Canola Mar 2017   472.50   +1.10   +0.23%

Canola May 2017   477.40   +0.70   +0.15%

Canola Jul 2017   481.60   +1.30   +0.27%

 

Milling Wheat Oct 2016   211.00   unch   0.00%

Milling Wheat Dec 2016   214.00   unch   0.00%

Milling Wheat Mar 2017   219.00   unch   0.00%

 

Durum Wheat Oct 2016   260.00   unch   0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2016   263.00   unch   0.00%

Durum Wheat Mar 2017   268.00   unch   0.00%

 

Barley Oct 2016   138.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Dec 2016   138.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Mar 2017   140.00   unch   0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Aug 2016   1017.00   -5.00   -0.49%

Soybeans Sep 2016   998.50   -6.50   -0.65%

Soybeans Nov 2016   982.25   -5.75   -0.58%

Soybeans Jan 2017   982.00   -4.75   -0.48%

Soybeans Mar 2017   971.50   -4.50   -0.46%

Soybeans May 2017   969.75   -4.25   -0.44%

 

Soybean Meal Aug 2016   336.20   -3.00   -0.88%

Soybean Meal Sep 2016   334.00   -2.30   -0.68%

Soybean Meal Oct 2016   331.90   -2.70   -0.81%

 

Soybean Oil Aug 2016   31.50   +0.33   +1.06%

Soybean Oil Sep 2016   31.57   +0.33   +1.06%

Soybean Oil Oct 2016   31.71   +0.34   +1.08%

 

Corn Sep 2016   322.50   +0.25   +0.08%

Corn Dec 2016   333.00   +0.50   +0.15%

Corn Mar 2017   343.25   +0.25   +0.07%

Corn May 2017   350.00   +0.25   +0.07%

Corn Jul 2017   356.50   +0.50   +0.14%

 

Oats Sep 2016   172.00   -3.25   -1.85%

Oats Dec 2016   183.50   -0.50   -0.27%

Oats Mar 2017   193.25   unch   0.00%

Oats May 2017   197.00   unch   0.00%

Oats Jul 2017   203.50   -0.25   -0.12%

 

Wheat Sep 2016   421.75   +4.75   +1.14%

Wheat Dec 2016   441.50   +4.75   +1.09%

Wheat Mar 2017   462.75   +3.50   +0.76%

Wheat May 2017   474.50   +2.75   +0.58%

Wheat Jul 2017   480.50   +1.50   +0.31%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Sep 2016   501.25   +3.00   +0.60%

Spring Wheat Dec 2016   508.50   +1.00   +0.20%

Spring Wheat Mar 2017   522.75   +1.25   +0.24%

Spring Wheat May 2017   531.50   +1.25   +0.24%

Spring Wheat Jul 2017   540.75   +1.00   +0.19%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016   411.75   +1.75   +0.43%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016   437.75   +2.25   +0.52%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017   454.25   +2.00   +0.44%

Hard Red Wheat May 2017   465.00   +1.75   +0.38%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017   474.00   +2.00   +0.42%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)

Live Cattle (P) Aug 2016   116.85   -0.13   -0.11%

Live Cattle (P) Oct 2016   114.93   -0.07   -0.06%

Live Cattle (P) Dec 2016   115.90   -0.07   -0.06%

 

Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2016   149.72   -0.46   -0.31%

Feeder Cattle (P) Sep 2016   148.50   -0.35   -0.24%

Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 2016   145.82   -0.21   -0.14%

 

Lean Hogs (P) Aug 2016   67.12   +0.20   +0.30%

Lean Hogs (P) Oct 2016   58.98   +0.78   +1.34%

Lean Hogs (P) Dec 2016   55.35   +0.95   +1.75%

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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