Crop markets, including canola, were down more forcefully Thursday on broad commodity weakness and generally good growing conditions across much of North America.
Although the U.S. Midwest has endured hot weather in recent days, good soil moisture and the early stage of the crop caused the trade to believe there was little crop stress.
North central Saskatchewan got welcome rain today but some areas in Alberta, southern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan would like drier weather. Lentils in some areas are suffering in over-wet fields.
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July canola closed at $509.50 a tonne, down $12.10 and November closed at $515, down $10.30.
The market appears to be becoming less concerned about a La Nina sparked drought in the Midwest this summer.
Watch this week’s crop markets video
Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc. spoke at Canada’s Farm Progress Show today. The Western Producer’s Robin Booker interviewed him following his presentation.
Lerner said all the talk about a devastating La Nina drought this summer is overblown. And he said there would likely be little impact in Western Canada.
“We’ll have our moments of warmth, and Manitoba will probably see more warmth than anybody,” he said.
Other commercial forecasters are beating the drought drum too loudly, he said
“What I’ve been cautioning folks about is, the great marketing jobs that these folks have done have everybody trigger happy that we are going to have this roaring bull market that is going to go into outer space. But the fact of the matter is, there is not much support for a truly damaging year in very many places in the world.
“The U.S. is one place that I can say there are certainly going to be some issues, but what I see happening is in the western corn belt and not in the entire production region.
“Most likely it will be one of those years where parts of the belt will do OK while the other parts don’t.”
Meanwhile the U.S. Weather Service today issued new July and three-month July-September forecasts. They show warmer than normal conditions for most of the Midwest, but mostly normal moisture, with South Dakota and Minnesota getting above normal moisture.
U.S. crop markets fell even as weekly export numbers were bullish.
The USDA said export sales of combined old- and new-crop corn totaled more than one million tonnes for the sixth straight week, while soybean sales topped trade expectations. “The fact we are unable to hold here today despite another week of really stellar export sales in both corn and soybeans, that confirms we are trading weather at the moment. And the weather is looking less threatening,” Rich Feltes, vice president for research with R.J. O’Brien.
Strategie Grains issued a new forecast for European crop production. It lowered its outlook for French and German soft wheat production because of excess rain in May, but kept its overall EU forecast the same because of improved crop outlooks in other EU member states.
World markets generally this week have been taking a more cautious approach as Britain heads towards its vote on European Union membership next week. Polls indicate that the country is leaning towards exiting the bloc.
A British member of parliament, who had campaigned in favour of staying in the EU, today was shot and killed.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down $1.80 to US$46.21 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US76.68 cents, down from 77.44 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2961.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index fell 41.04 points, or 0.29 percent, at 13,882.41.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 92.93 points, or 0.53 percent, to 17,733.1, the S&P 500 gained 6.49 points, or 0.31 percent, to 2,077.99 and the Nasdaq Composite added 9.98 points, or 0.21 percent, to 4,844.92.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jul 2016 509.50 -12.10 -2.32%
Canola Nov 2016 515.00 -10.30 -1.96%
Canola Jan 2017 518.80 -10.00 -1.89%
Canola Mar 2017 519.90 -10.20 -1.92%
Canola May 2017 521.10 -10.10 -1.90%
Milling Wheat Jul 2016 233.00 +1.00 +0.43%
Milling Wheat Oct 2016 231.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2016 301.00 +1.00 +0.33%
Durum Wheat Oct 2016 297.00 +1.00 +0.34%
Barley Jul 2016 171.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2016 171.50 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Jul 2016 1134.50 -21.50 -1.86%
Soybeans Aug 2016 1133.50 -21.50 -1.86%
Soybeans Sep 2016 1123.75 -21.25 -1.86%
Soybeans Nov 2016 1119.25 -19.25 -1.69%
Soybeans Jan 2017 1117.00 -18.75 -1.65%
Soybeans Mar 2017 1083.75 -13.75 -1.25%
Soybean Meal Jul 2016 397.70 -9.50 -2.33%
Soybean Meal Aug 2016 396.10 -8.70 -2.15%
Soybean Meal Sep 2016 395.20 -7.90 -1.96%
Soybean Oil Jul 2016 31.16 -0.80 -2.50%
Soybean Oil Aug 2016 31.30 -0.80 -2.49%
Soybean Oil Sep 2016 31.44 -0.80 -2.48%
Corn Jul 2016 425.25 -3.75 -0.87%
Corn Sep 2016 430.50 -3.50 -0.81%
Corn Dec 2016 435.75 -3.75 -0.85%
Corn Mar 2017 440.75 -3.75 -0.84%
Corn May 2017 443.00 -4.00 -0.89%
Oats Jul 2016 204.50 unch 0.00%
Oats Sep 2016 215.00 -0.50 -0.23%
Oats Dec 2016 221.25 -1.75 -0.78%
Oats Mar 2017 233.50 -1.50 -0.64%
Oats May 2017 233.50 -1.50 -0.64%
Wheat Jul 2016 472.50 -5.00 -1.05%
Wheat Sep 2016 484.75 -4.75 -0.97%
Wheat Dec 2016 504.25 -6.00 -1.18%
Wheat Mar 2017 523.50 -6.75 -1.27%
Wheat May 2017 535.50 -7.00 -1.29%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Jul 2016 529.25 -1.25 -0.24%
Spring Wheat Sep 2016 538.75 -1.75 -0.32%
Spring Wheat Dec 2016 552.75 -2.00 -0.36%
Spring Wheat Mar 2017 565.25 -3.00 -0.53%
Spring Wheat May 2017 573.00 -3.25 -0.56%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016 450.75 -6.00 -1.31%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016 468.50 -6.00 -1.26%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016 493.75 -5.75 -1.15%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017 510.00 -5.50 -1.07%
Hard Red Wheat May 2017 520.50 -5.25 -1.00%
Live Cattle (P) Jun 2016 117.28 unch 0.00%
Live Cattle (P) Aug 2016 113.35 -0.23 -0.20%
Live Cattle (P) Oct 2016 113.30 -0.23 -0.20%
Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2016 139.62 -0.63 -0.45%
Feeder Cattle (P) Sep 2016 138.53 -0.90 -0.65%
Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 2016 137.15 -0.97 -0.70%
Lean Hogs (P) Jul 2016 87.08 +0.25 +0.29%
Lean Hogs (P) Aug 2016 89.50 +0.70 +0.79%
Lean Hogs (P) Oct 2016 74.50 +0.35 +0.47%
