Canola futures down on China soy cancellation

Reading Time: 3 minutes

Published: January 28, 2016

China canceled an order for almost 400,000 tonnes of American soybeans on Thursday, leading to the usual seasonal angst over trade moving to South American suppliers.

All major crop markets were down.

Canola was also pressured by a modest increase in the loonie.

The March contract again fell below $480, closing at $477.90, down $3.30.

Thomas Mielke, chief executive of German oilseed analyst Oil World estimates European rapeseed production will not climb from last year’s disappointing harvest. His early forecast is about 22 million tonnes, about the same as last year but down from 24.3 million two years ago.

See: EU again facing low rapeseed harvest in 2016

Crude oil rose again, on mixed signals about the potential for OPEC and non-OPEC exporters talking about production decreases.

Early in the day, Russia’s energy minister said Saudi Arabia was proposing that exporters cut production by five percent and that Russia would be willing to meet for discussions, but then delegates to OPEC said they had not heard this proposal.

Corn was down on technical selling and on reports that China is buying a million tonnes of corn from Ukraine.

China is also trying to come up with policies to get domestic processors to use the record large stockpile of domestic corn instead of importing cheaper feedstuffs.

Although China’s imports of corn remain fairly modest, in the last year it imported huge amounts of distillers’ grain and sorghum.

Wheat also slipped lower on Thursday.

The market awaits a meeting scheduled in Moscow on Friday to discuss on a possible change in Russia’s wheat export tax. The most recent talk is that Russia might cut its wheat export tax but increase the tax on corn.

In another sign of Argentina’s new determination to pump up its grain export business, the Bahia Blanca grains exchange reported upcoming wheat shipments to South Korea and Vietnam.

A storm early next week should bring heavy snow to the U.S. central and southern Plains and rain to the Midwest and Mississippi River Delta, the Commodity Weather Group said in a note to clients, Reuters reported.

It has been unusually cold in China in the last week raising the potential for damage in the winter rapeseed crop, which is already expected to be smaller than normal because of reduced acreage, following changes in the country’s support programs.

Dry weather in North Africa has the potential to reduce the durum crop there, leading to increased imports.

Wall Street gained as a blockbuster quarterly report from Facebook drove tech shares higher and a bounce in oil prices helped support the Toronto market, Reuters reported.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 92 cents to US$33.22 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US71.06 cents, down from 71.21 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.4048.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index unofficially closed up 214.16 points, or 1.73 percent, at 12,591.93.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 124.57 points, or 0.78 percent, to 16,069.03, the S&P 500 gained 10.23 points, or 0.54 percent, to 1,893.18 and the Nasdaq Composite added 38.51 points, or 0.86 percent, to 4,506.68.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Mar 2016 477.90 -3.30 -0.69%

Canola May 2016 487.30 -3.00 -0.61%

Canola Jul 2016 492.90 -2.90 -0.58%

Canola Nov 2016 491.50 -3.20 -0.65%

Canola Jan 2017 493.60 -2.60 -0.52%

 

Milling Wheat Mar 2016 235.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat May 2016 237.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Jul 2016 241.00 unch 0.00%

 

Durum Wheat Mar 2016 322.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2016 330.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2016 330.00 unch 0.00%

 

Barley Mar 2016 190.00 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2016 194.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2016 196.00 unch 0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Mar 2016 867.75 -15.25 -1.73%

Soybeans May 2016 870.5 -14.75 -1.67%

Soybeans Jul 2016 876.25 -14.75 -1.66%

Soybeans Aug 2016 878 -14.75 -1.65%

Soybeans Sep 2016 877.75 -14.5 -1.63%

Soybeans Nov 2016 880 -14.25 -1.59%

 

Soybean Meal Mar 2016 266.9 -5.6 -2.06%

Soybean Meal May 2016 269 -5.5 -2.00%

Soybean Meal Jul 2016 271 -5.7 -2.06%

 

Soybean Oil Mar 2016 30.69 -0.18 -0.58%

Soybean Oil May 2016 30.9 -0.17 -0.55%

Soybean Oil Jul 2016 31.13 -0.16 -0.51%

 

Corn Mar 2016 365.5 -3.75 -1.02%

Corn May 2016 370.5 -4 -1.07%

Corn Jul 2016 375.25 -3.75 -0.99%

Corn Sep 2016 379.75 -3.5 -0.91%

Corn Dec 2016 387.5 -3 -0.77%

 

Oats Mar 2016 199 -2 -1.00%

Oats May 2016 205.25 -1.75 -0.85%

Oats Jul 2016 211.5 -1.75 -0.82%

Oats Sep 2016 217.25 -1.75 -0.80%

Oats Dec 2016 215.75 -1 -0.46%

 

Wheat Mar 2016 472.25 -4.25 -0.89%

Wheat May 2016 478 -4.25 -0.88%

Wheat Jul 2016 484 -4 -0.82%

Wheat Sep 2016 492.75 -3.75 -0.76%

Wheat Dec 2016 506.75 -3.75 -0.73%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 2016 495.25 -1.25 -0.25%

Spring Wheat May 2016 500.25 -1 -0.20%

Spring Wheat Jul 2016 507 -0.5 -0.10%

Spring Wheat Sep 2016 517 -0.25 -0.05%

Spring Wheat Dec 2016 531.75 unch 0.00%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 464.75 -2.75 -0.59%

Hard Red Wheat May 2016 475.5 -2.5 -0.52%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016 485.75 -2.75 -0.56%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016 499.25 -2.75 -0.55%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016 518.75 -2.5 -0.48%

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

explore

Stories from our other publications