Canola futures dip on currency, technical factors

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Published: November 17, 2015

Crop futures, including canola, moved only a little on Tuesday, mostly on technical factors and currency shifts.

Canola dipped slightly even though soybeans edged higher on bargain buying and a slower than normal pace of seeding in Brazil.

The biggest mover today was Chicago wheat, which fell more than one percent following the weekly crop condition report from the USDA, which showed the winter wheat crop improved over the last week.

Also, a winter storm moving across the U.S. is bringing needed moisture to the southern Plains. The same weather system is expected to bring sharply colder temperatures to the Canadian Prairies after an unusually warm spell in the first half of November.

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Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures touched a two-week high on Friday on worries that heat may threaten U.S. crops and expectations that the country’s biofuel policy would boost demand for soyoil, analysts said.

Kansas winter wheat fell about one percent while December Minneapolis spring wheat fell only 0.59 percent.

The pace of U.S. wheat exports this year is the slowest in decades.

Canadian wheat exports are also lagging behind the usual pace.

Moisture and mild weather is forecast for dry areas of Ukraine and Russia, which might relieve some of the stress on winter wheat crops there.

January canola closed at $470.20, down $1.90 of 0.4 percent.

Bearish chart signals weighed on canola, as did a stronger Canadian dollar.

The trade generally expects Statistics Canada will increase its estimate of this year’s canola crop when it releases its crop production survey in early December.

On the other hand, demand has been good with both exports and domestic crushing running ahead of last year’s record pace.

Brazil’s soybean crop was 56 percent planted as of Nov. 13, or 13 percentage points behind the typical schedule, analyst Safras e Mercado reported, according to a Reuters story.

 

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down $1.07 to US$40.67 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US75.05 cents, up from 74.89 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3324.

U.S. stocks initially rose today on strong corporate quarterly profit reports from Wal-Mart and Home Depot. The U.S. dollar was higher on signs of firming inflation in the U.S., adding to the expectation that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates in December.

However, stocks retreated following a bomb scare at a soccer game between Germany and the Netherlands. No

Falling gold and energy company shares weighed on the Toronto market.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down 37.13 points, or 0.28 percent, at 13,280.39.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 5.68 points, or 0.03 percent, to 17,488.69, the S&P 500 lost 2.78 points, or 0.14 percent, to 2,050.41 and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.40 points, or 0.03 percent, to 4,986.02.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Jan 2016   470.20   -1.90   -0.40%

Canola Mar 2016   476.40   -1.70   -0.36%

Canola May 2016   479.90   -1.90   -0.39%

Canola Jul 2016   483.40   -1.80   -0.37%

Canola Nov 2016   477.60   -0.30   -0.06%

 

Milling Wheat Dec 2015   234.00   -1.00   -0.43%

Milling Wheat Mar 2016   237.00   -1.00   -0.42%

Milling Wheat May 2016   241.00   -1.00   -0.41%

 

Durum Wheat Dec 2015   320.00   unch   0.00%

Durum Wheat Mar 2016   325.00   unch   0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2016   335.00   unch   0.00%

 

Barley Dec 2015   188.50  unch   0.00%

Barley Mar 2016   190.50   unch   0.00%

Barley May 2016   191.50   unch   0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Jan 2016   864   +4.5   +0.52%

Soybeans Mar 2016   865   +4.25   +0.49%

Soybeans May 2016   870.5   +4   +0.46%

Soybeans Jul 2016   876.5   +3.75   +0.43%

Soybeans Aug 2016   878   +3.5   +0.40%

Soybeans Sep 2016   877.75   +2.75   +0.31%

 

Soybean Meal Dec 2015   288.5   -0.3   -0.10%

Soybean Meal Jan 2016   288.4   -0.3   -0.10%

Soybean Meal Mar 2016   288.4   -0.5   -0.17%

 

Soybean Oil Dec 2015   27.47   +0.18   +0.66%

Soybean Oil Jan 2016   27.78   +0.2   +0.73%

Soybean Oil Mar 2016   28.02   +0.21   +0.76%

 

Corn Dec 2015   362   +2   +0.56%

Corn Mar 2016   368   +1.25   +0.34%

Corn May 2016   373.5   +0.75   +0.20%

Corn Jul 2016   378.5   +0.25   +0.07%

Corn Sep 2016   382.75   +1   +0.26%

 

Oats Dec 2015   237.75   +2.75   +1.17%

Oats Mar 2016   226.75   unch   0.00%

Oats May 2016   226   -1   -0.44%

Oats Jul 2016   229.25   -1   -0.43%

Oats Sep 2016   232.75   -1   -0.43%

 

Wheat Dec 2015   487.5   -6.5   -1.32%

Wheat Mar 2016   487   -8.5   -1.72%

Wheat May 2016   490.75   -8   -1.60%

Wheat Jul 2016   493.5   -7.25   -1.45%

Wheat Sep 2016   501.75   -6.75   -1.33%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 2015   501.75   -3   -0.59%

Spring Wheat Mar 2016   503.5   -4.75   -0.93%

Spring Wheat May 2016   513.25   -5   -0.96%

Spring Wheat Jul 2016   523.75   -4.25   -0.80%

Spring Wheat Sep 2016   535.25   -4.25 -0.79%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015   463.25   -4.25   -0.91%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016   476.25   -4.75   -0.99%

Hard Red Wheat May 2016   486   -4.75   -0.97%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016   495.5   -4.75   -0.95%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016   509.25   -4.5   -0.88%

 

 

 

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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