Canola follows soybeans up

October began in the green for most North American crops futures markets, but wheat weakened.

Canola escaped the downdraft from weakening soybean oil, instead following behind a rise in soybeans to mark a more than $2 per tonne gain in trading Oct. 3.

“Canola just tagged along,” said P.I. Financial broker Ken Ball, comparing canola to U.S. soybean values.

“It’s been stuck in a rut for a while.”

Canola spent most of September in the $460-470 per tonne range, and that’s where it spent Oct. 3 too.

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But soybeans showed promising signs of breaking higher in coming days.

“The beans have been trying to rally for a week and largely fizzling, but today they got going,” said Ball.

This is the period in which traders begin trying to estimate when harvest lows have been reached, and Ball thinks some speculative funds might have decided that they have been reached or are close and that they can get ahead of a trend change and squeeze speculative shorts.

“You may be seeing some funds coming in to beans today betting that they could spook the shorts and get a rebound rally going, and they got it going pretty well.”

Soybeans have often hit their lows and begun recovering in the first week of October, so it would not be surprising to see some expecting that to occur this year.

Corn futures also saw a nice rise, suggesting the same phenomenon could be occurring there, with shorts becoming uneasy holding onto their positions.

Both Chicago and Kansas City wheat contracts fell, but spring wheat hung on with only slight changes. However, wheat futures have staged a rally in the past few weeks, rising throughout the month until the last few sessions at the end of September, so traders will be watching to see if most gains can be maintained. Oct. 3 wasn’t an auspicious sign for bulls.

Healthy U.S. exports of corn and soybeans lent a fundamental hand to the generally positive market mood.

Grains were the strongest component of the commodities complex on Oct. 3.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 57 cents to US$48.81 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US76.12 cents, down from 76.24 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3137.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2016   465.90   +2.30   +0.50%
Canola Jan 2017   473.60   +2.90   +0.62%
Canola Mar 2017   478.80   +2.90   +0.61%
Canola May 2017   483.70   +2.70   +0.56%
Canola Jul 2017   486.40   +2.10   +0.43%

Milling Wheat Oct 2016   223.00   -1.00   -0.45%
Milling Wheat Dec 2016   227.00   unch   0.00%
Milling Wheat Mar 2017   231.00   -1.00   -0.43%

Durum Wheat Oct 2016   283.00   unch   0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2016   282.00   unch   0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2017   289.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Oct 2016   132.50   unch   0.00%
Barley Dec 2016   132.50   unch   0.00%
Barley Mar 2017   134.50   unch   0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans Nov 2016   973.00   +19.50   +2.05%
Soybeans Jan 2017   978.00   +19.75   +2.06%
Soybeans Mar 2017   984.50   +19.50   +2.02%
Soybeans May 2017   990.25   +20.00   +2.06%
Soybeans Jul 2017   995.00   +19.25   +1.97%
Soybeans Aug 2017   993.75   +16.75   +1.71%

Soybean Meal Oct 2016   305.90   +8.30   +2.79%
Soybean Meal Dec 2016   308.40   +8.30   +2.77%
Soybean Meal Jan 2017   309.50   +8.80   +2.93%

Soybean Oil Oct 2016   33.05   -0.06   -0.18%
Soybean Oil Dec 2016   33.24   -0.07   -0.21%
Soybean Oil Jan 2017   33.48   -0.04   -0.12%

Corn Dec 2016   346.00   +9.75   +2.90%
Corn Mar 2017   355.75   +9.50   +2.74%

Corn May 2017   362.75   +9.75   +2.76%
Corn Jul 2017   369.00   +9.25   +2.57%
Corn Sep 2017   375.50   +9.00   +2.46%

Oats Dec 2016   183.00   +4.50   +2.52%
Oats Mar 2017   188.75   +2.00   +1.07%
Oats May 2017   194.00   +3.00   +1.57%
Oats Jul 2017   199.25   unch   0.00%
Oats Sep 2017   200.25   -34.75   -14.79%

Wheat Dec 2016   395.50   -6.50   -1.62%
Wheat Mar 2017   417.25   -7.25   -1.71%
Wheat May 2017   430.50   -6.75   -1.54%
Wheat Jul 2017   441.25   -5.75   -1.29%
Wheat Sep 2017   455.75   -4.75   -1.03%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2016   516.25   +3.75   +0.73%
Spring Wheat Mar 2017   521.50   +2.50   +0.48%
Spring Wheat May 2017   528.00   +1.50   +0.28%
Spring Wheat Jul 2017   535.75   +2.50   +0.47%
Spring Wheat Sep 2017   543.00   +1.50   +0.28%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016   407.00   -8.25   -1.99%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017   423.50   -8.75   -2.02%
Hard Red Wheat May 2017   434.00   -8.75   -1.98%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017   444.50   -7.50   -1.66%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017   459.50   -7.75   -1.66%

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)
Live Cattle (P) Oct 2016   98.92   +0.02   +0.02%

Live Cattle (P) Dec 2016   99.98   -0.14   -0.14%
Live Cattle (P) Feb 2017   100.38   -0.04   -0.04%

Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 2016   123.97   +0.97   +0.79%
Feeder Cattle (P) Nov 2016   119.28   -0.14   -0.12%
Feeder Cattle (P) Jan 2017   115.80   -0.58   -0.50%

Lean Hogs (P) Oct 2016   48.92   -0.40   -0.81%
Lean Hogs (P) Dec 2016   44.18   -0.04   -0.09%
Lean Hogs (P) Feb 2017   50.65   +1.60   +3.26%