October began in the green for most North American crops futures markets, but wheat weakened.
Canola escaped the downdraft from weakening soybean oil, instead following behind a rise in soybeans to mark a more than $2 per tonne gain in trading Oct. 3.
“Canola just tagged along,” said P.I. Financial broker Ken Ball, comparing canola to U.S. soybean values.
“It’s been stuck in a rut for a while.”
Canola spent most of September in the $460-470 per tonne range, and that’s where it spent Oct. 3 too.
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Feed Grains Weekly: Price likely to keep stepping back
As the harvest in southern Alberta presses on, a broker said that is one of the factors pulling feed prices lower in the region. Darcy Haley, vice-president of Ag Value Brokers in Lethbridge, added that lower cattle numbers in feedlots, plentiful amounts of grass for cattle to graze and a lacklustre export market also weighed on feed prices.
But soybeans showed promising signs of breaking higher in coming days.
“The beans have been trying to rally for a week and largely fizzling, but today they got going,” said Ball.
This is the period in which traders begin trying to estimate when harvest lows have been reached, and Ball thinks some speculative funds might have decided that they have been reached or are close and that they can get ahead of a trend change and squeeze speculative shorts.
“You may be seeing some funds coming in to beans today betting that they could spook the shorts and get a rebound rally going, and they got it going pretty well.”
Soybeans have often hit their lows and begun recovering in the first week of October, so it would not be surprising to see some expecting that to occur this year.
Corn futures also saw a nice rise, suggesting the same phenomenon could be occurring there, with shorts becoming uneasy holding onto their positions.
Both Chicago and Kansas City wheat contracts fell, but spring wheat hung on with only slight changes. However, wheat futures have staged a rally in the past few weeks, rising throughout the month until the last few sessions at the end of September, so traders will be watching to see if most gains can be maintained. Oct. 3 wasn’t an auspicious sign for bulls.
Healthy U.S. exports of corn and soybeans lent a fundamental hand to the generally positive market mood.
Grains were the strongest component of the commodities complex on Oct. 3.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 57 cents to US$48.81 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US76.12 cents, down from 76.24 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3137.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2016 465.90 +2.30 +0.50%
Canola Jan 2017 473.60 +2.90 +0.62%
Canola Mar 2017 478.80 +2.90 +0.61%
Canola May 2017 483.70 +2.70 +0.56%
Canola Jul 2017 486.40 +2.10 +0.43%
Milling Wheat Oct 2016 223.00 -1.00 -0.45%
Milling Wheat Dec 2016 227.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Mar 2017 231.00 -1.00 -0.43%
Durum Wheat Oct 2016 283.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2016 282.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2017 289.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2016 132.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2016 132.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2017 134.50 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Nov 2016 973.00 +19.50 +2.05%
Soybeans Jan 2017 978.00 +19.75 +2.06%
Soybeans Mar 2017 984.50 +19.50 +2.02%
Soybeans May 2017 990.25 +20.00 +2.06%
Soybeans Jul 2017 995.00 +19.25 +1.97%
Soybeans Aug 2017 993.75 +16.75 +1.71%
Soybean Meal Oct 2016 305.90 +8.30 +2.79%
Soybean Meal Dec 2016 308.40 +8.30 +2.77%
Soybean Meal Jan 2017 309.50 +8.80 +2.93%
Soybean Oil Oct 2016 33.05 -0.06 -0.18%
Soybean Oil Dec 2016 33.24 -0.07 -0.21%
Soybean Oil Jan 2017 33.48 -0.04 -0.12%
Corn Dec 2016 346.00 +9.75 +2.90%
Corn Mar 2017 355.75 +9.50 +2.74%
Corn Jul 2017 369.00 +9.25 +2.57%
Corn Sep 2017 375.50 +9.00 +2.46%
Oats Dec 2016 183.00 +4.50 +2.52%
Oats Mar 2017 188.75 +2.00 +1.07%
Oats May 2017 194.00 +3.00 +1.57%
Oats Jul 2017 199.25 unch 0.00%
Oats Sep 2017 200.25 -34.75 -14.79%
Wheat Dec 2016 395.50 -6.50 -1.62%
Wheat Mar 2017 417.25 -7.25 -1.71%
Wheat May 2017 430.50 -6.75 -1.54%
Wheat Jul 2017 441.25 -5.75 -1.29%
Wheat Sep 2017 455.75 -4.75 -1.03%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2016 516.25 +3.75 +0.73%
Spring Wheat Mar 2017 521.50 +2.50 +0.48%
Spring Wheat May 2017 528.00 +1.50 +0.28%
Spring Wheat Jul 2017 535.75 +2.50 +0.47%
Spring Wheat Sep 2017 543.00 +1.50 +0.28%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016 407.00 -8.25 -1.99%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017 423.50 -8.75 -2.02%
Hard Red Wheat May 2017 434.00 -8.75 -1.98%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 444.50 -7.50 -1.66%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 459.50 -7.75 -1.66%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)
Live Cattle (P) Oct 2016 98.92 +0.02 +0.02%
Live Cattle (P) Feb 2017 100.38 -0.04 -0.04%
Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 2016 123.97 +0.97 +0.79%
Feeder Cattle (P) Nov 2016 119.28 -0.14 -0.12%
Feeder Cattle (P) Jan 2017 115.80 -0.58 -0.50%
Lean Hogs (P) Oct 2016 48.92 -0.40 -0.81%
Lean Hogs (P) Dec 2016 44.18 -0.04 -0.09%
Lean Hogs (P) Feb 2017 50.65 +1.60 +3.26%
