Canola flattens in advance of Monday’s USDA reports

Friday seemed like a settling down day in the canola markets, with jumpy early action flattening into a wait-and-see pattern in the lee of the looming U.S. Department of Agriculture reports due Monday.

November Winnipeg canola futures closed about four cents per bushel below where they started the session, ending the week at $483.10 per tonne.

That’s much worse than where they started the week, at $492 to $494, but much better than the depths they hit Tuesday, when they momentarily slumped beneath $474. The Tuesday bloodbath sent shivers through the canola market, but Wednesday saw short-covering and bargain hunters that stopped the decline and Thursday saw modest gains.

Read Also

Media reports suggest U.S. dairy access to Canada a topic of conversation in Ottawa

Globe and Mail article suggests U.S. dairy access to Canada is back as a topic of conversation in Ottawa

Canola is weak recently due to both intrinsic and category problems. A big western Canadian crop isn’t making buyers eager to lock-in new crop prices, and the crop keeps looking better, if a tad late-maturing.

Both vegetable oil crop category leader soybeans and dominant vegoil soy oil have been weak recently. And overall, the crops complex is weak, with corn and wheat stumbling down to prices not seen for a few years.

Most commodity classes were slightly higher Friday, with crops the only class slightly down. But “slightly” accurately sums up crop futures weakness, because most crops ended only down a few cents.

An anxious air of anticipation hangs above the market, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Monday reports making many pull in their horns.

Will USDA confirm a suspicion of a 14 billion bushel crop? Is the soybean crop as good as USDA crop condition measures suggest, or are there problems hidden beneath its thick green canopy?

Those questions will be answered Monday morning.

Friday’s stock markets were mostly lower. Oil hit $106 per barrel on renewed hopes for Chinese demand.

ICE Futures Canada, dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2013    483.70    -1.80    -0.37%
Canola Jan 2014    489.20    -1.40    -0.29%
Canola Mar 2014    494.60    -1.30    -0.26%
Canola May 2014    500.10    -1.30    -0.26%
Canola Jul 2014    504.60    -1.40    -0.28%

Milling Wheat Oct 2013    256.00    unch    0.00%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013    261.00    unch    0.00%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014    266.00    unch    0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2013    291.00    unch    0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2013    295.00    unch    0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014    305.00    unch    0.00%

Barley Oct 2013    189.00    unch    0.00%
Barley Dec 2013    194.00    unch    0.00%
Barley Mar 2014    194.00    unch    0.00%

American crops in cents US per bushel, soybean meal in $US per short ton and soybean oil in cents US per  pound

Chicago
Soybeans Aug 2013    1340.75    -15    -1.11%

Soybeans Sep 2013    1218.5    -9.25    -0.75%
Soybeans Nov 2013    1182.25    -2    -0.17%
Soybeans Jan 2014    1188    -1.25    -0.11%
Soybeans Mar 2014    1192.5    -0.75    -0.06%
Soybeans May 2014    1193    unch    0.00%

Soybean Meal Aug 2013    420.5    -2    -0.47%
Soybean Meal Sep 2013    390.6    -2    -0.51%
Soybean Meal Oct 2013    360    -0.6    -0.17%

Soybean Oil Aug 2013    41.4    -0.25    -0.60%
Soybean Oil Sep 2013    41.5    -0.25    -0.60%
Soybean Oil Oct 2013    41.6    -0.24    -0.57%

Corn Sep 2013    465.75    -7.75    -1.64%
Corn Dec 2013    453.25    -6.5    -1.41%
Corn Mar 2014    466.75    -6.5    -1.37%
Corn May 2014    475    -6.5    -1.35%
Corn Jul 2014    481.25    -6    -1.23%

Oats Sep 2013    359    -3    -0.83%
Oats Dec 2013    326.75    -0.25    -0.08%
Oats Mar 2014    331    +0.25    +0.08%
Oats May 2014    331    unch    0.00%
Oats Jul 2014    335.25    unch    0.00%

Wheat Sep 2013    633.5    -7.75    -1.21%
Wheat Dec 2013    647.25    -6.5    -0.99%
Wheat Mar 2014    660.5    -5    -0.75%
Wheat May 2014    668.5    -5    -0.74%
Wheat Jul 2014    665    -3    -0.45%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2013    732    -1.5    -0.20%

Spring Wheat Dec 2013    739.75    -1.75    -0.24%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014    751.75    -1.25    -0.17%
Spring Wheat May 2014    759    -1    -0.13%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014    763.5    -3.5    -0.46%

Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013    697.25    -4.75    -0.68%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013    703.5    -3.25    -0.46%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014    712.25    -2.75    -0.38%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014    714    -1.5    -0.21%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014    698.5    -1    -0.14%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York increased $2.57 at $105.97 US per barrel.

The Bank of Canada rate for the loonie at noon was 97.06 cents US, up from 96.64 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0303 Cdn.