Canola finishes week strong with May at $500 a tonne

May canola settled right at the $500 a tonne mark on Thursday, garnering support from rising soybeans, a weaker loonie and a rolling of short positions into the July contract.

Tightening canola old crop supplies should keep a floor under canola prices.

The May contract closed at $500, up $10.90 from the close the previous Friday. New crop November closed at $484.30, up $3.80 from the previous week.

COLD AND WET

Good Friday and Saturday should see rain and snow in many parts of the north and central Prairie grain belt but southern areas will likely see only small amounts.

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Lower temperatures will accompany the system.

In the U.S. farmers are watching forecasts for rain next week with accumulations of two to five inches in some areas of the Midwest. Planting progress will stall in wet areas.

WEEKLY EXPORTS

Canadian canola exports in the week to April 9 totalled 248,100 tonnes, down from an exceptionally strong 334,700 tonnes the week before, said data from the Canadian Grain Commission.

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Exports to date are up 9.7 percent over the same period mlast year.

Wheat exports were also down in week 36 at 183,200 tonnes, down from 346,500 tonnes in week 35.

Total exports for all grains were 647,300 tonnes, down from 981,600 the week before.

CANOLA CRUSH

The report from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association is not yet ready.

AG CAN S&D

The monthly Agriculture Canada supply and demand report released today adjusted down the forecast for wheat exports in the current crop year to 16 million tonnes, down 500,000 tonnes to reflect the slow pace of exports to date.

That raised the carry out forecast to 4.5 million tonnes from four million in last month’s report. Carryout in 2015-16 was 4.07 million.

Although the current pace of canola exports is running 9.7 percent ahead of last year, Agriculture Canada did not adjust its canola export forecast. It still has canola exports totalling 2.8 percent less than last year.

The Ag Canada forecast does not have a lot of wiggle room. It already has canola year end stocks at a tight 1.1 million tonnes. Either the pace of canola exports and crush will have to slow in the remaining months of the crop year or else the production estimate of 18.424 million tonnes will have to be revised up.

US CROPS

Soybeans today rallied on bargain buying after prices hit one-year lows earlier in the week.

With the bad news of record South American production mostly priced into the market, the trade is putting back in some production risk insurance as American farmers enter the seeding period.

The wet conditions in the Midwest, with more rain forecast for next week, have raised minor concern about a slow start to seeding.

However, the moisture should help the condition of the U.S. winter wheat crop.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Growing international tensions weighed on stock markets. Traders believe the international issues could distract the American government from promised plans to reduce taxes and regulation.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down 112.92 points, or 0.72 percent, at 15,535,48.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 138.61 points, or 0.67 percent, to 20,453.25, the S&P 500 lost 15.98 points, or 0.68 percent, to 2,328.95 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 31.01 points, or 0.53 percent, to 5,805.15.

For the week, the TSX composite was down 0.8 percent, the Dow fell one percent, the S&P 500 fell 1.1 percent and the Nasdaq was down 1.2 percent.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up seven cents to US$53.18 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US74.99 cents, down from 75.38 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3335.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola May 2017 500.00 +5.00 +1.01%

Canola Jul 2017 499.00 +5.00 +1.01%

Canola Nov 2017 480.50 +1.10 +0.23%

Canola Jan 2018 483.50 +1.10 +0.23%

Canola Mar 2018 486.80 +1.10 +0.23%

Milling Wheat May 2017 228.00 +1.00 +0.44%

Milling Wheat Jul 2017 229.00 +1.00 +0.44%

Milling Wheat Oct 2017 225.00 +1.00 +0.45%

Durum Wheat May 2017 271.00 -1.00 -0.37%

Durum Wheat Jul 2017 271.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2017 263.00 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2017 137.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2017 138.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2017 140.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans May 2017 955.50 +7.75 +0.82%

Soybeans Jul 2017 966.25 +7.50 +0.78%

Soybeans Aug 2017 968.00 +7.25 +0.75%

Soybeans Sep 2017 964.50 +7.00 +0.73%

Soybeans Nov 2017 961.75 +6.25 +0.65%

Soybeans Jan 2018 968.00 +6.75 +0.70%

Soybean Meal May 2017 317.50 +4.80 +1.54%

Soybean Meal Jul 2017 321.80 +4.80 +1.51%

Soybean Meal Aug 2017 322.40 +4.60 +1.45%

Soybean Oil May 2017 31.19 -0.05 -0.16%

Soybean Oil Jul 2017 31.38 -0.08 -0.25%

Soybean Oil Aug 2017 31.48 -0.09 -0.29%

Corn May 2017 371.00 +2.00 +0.54%

Corn Jul 2017 378.00 +2.00 +0.53%

Corn Sep 2017 384.50 +1.75 +0.46%

Corn Dec 2017 394.50 +2.00 +0.51%

Corn Mar 2018 403.50 +2.50 +0.62%

Oats May 2017 225.50 +1.00 +0.45%

Oats Jul 2017 224.25 +0.50 +0.22%

Oats Sep 2017 221.75 +1.50 +0.68%

Oats Dec 2017 223.50 +2.75 +1.25%

Oats Mar 2018 230.75 +2.75 +1.21%

Wheat May 2017 429.75 -3.50 -0.81%

Wheat Jul 2017 442.75 -3.50 -0.78%

Wheat Sep 2017 455.75 -4.00 -0.87%

Wheat Dec 2017 476.75 -3.50 -0.73%

Wheat Mar 2018 493.75 -2.75 -0.55%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat May 2017 530.25 +1.50 +0.28%

Spring Wheat Jul 2017 538.75 +1.50 +0.28%

Spring Wheat Sep 2017 546.75 +1.25 +0.23%

Spring Wheat Dec 2017 557.25 +0.75 +0.13%

Spring Wheat Mar 2018 568.00 +0.50 +0.09%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat May 2017 427.25 -2.75 -0.64%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 439.25 -3.25 -0.73%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 455.50 -3.00 -0.65%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017 480.50 -2.00 -0.41%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2018 497.50 -1.75 -0.35%

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)

Live Cattle (P) Apr 2017 125.38 +1.18 +0.95%

Live Cattle (P) Jun 2017 114.70 +0.35 +0.31%

Live Cattle (P) Aug 2017 110.80 +0.42 +0.38%

Feeder Cattle (P) Apr 2017 137.80 +0.30 +0.22%

Feeder Cattle (P) May 2017 138.40 +0.58 +0.42%

Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2017 140.28 +0.33 +0.24%

Lean Hogs (P) Apr 2017 62.45 +0.23 +0.37%

Lean Hogs (P) May 2017 68.30 +0.27 +0.40%

Lean Hogs (P) Jun 2017 72.50 +0.22 +0.30%

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