Canola falls through support, but dry weather supports wheat

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Published: March 16, 2017

Technical factors and a weaker U.S. dollar against many world currencies helped American crop futures on Thursday, but canola fell for the sixth consecutive session.

Breaking below technical support, May closed at $505.80, down $5 or almost one percent and close to the low for 2017 of $504.80 set Jan. 11.

Reuters reported current weak exports weighed on canola. Also, Wednesday’s Canadian dollar rally, which gained almost one cent, continued to weigh on canola.

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Canola falls through support, but dry weather supports wheat

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U.S. crop futures generally rose on stronger than expected weekly exports and ideas that the price decline of the past week has made American grains competitive on the world market.

The U.S. dollar has weakened a little against most currencies since Wednesday’s Federal Reserve interest rate increase. The 25 basis point increase was expected. It appears though that the Fed’s guidance about further rate increases was little less aggressive than some expected.

The Fed said it would likely raise rates two more times this year and three times next year. Dollar traders had priced in a more aggressive stance.

WHEAT

Wheat rose with support on concerns about weather affecting the U.S. winter crops.

Cold weather in eastern areas of the U.S. could be harming the soft winter crop and warm, dry weather is the concern in Kansas and Oklahoma. The seven day forecast shows the southern Plains can expect less than a quarter inch of accumulation.

Today Dodge City, Kansas, has a high of 26 C. Friday and Saturday can expect highs of 22C and on Sunday it is a scorcher at 32C.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York fell 11 cents to US$48.75 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US74.91 cents, down from 75.16 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3348.

In late session trade, the TSX composite was up 45.87 points or 0.3 percent at 15,566.78.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was trading down 34.93 points, or 0.17 percent, to 20,915.17, the S&P 500 had lost 5.85 points, or 0.25 percent, to 2,379.41, and the Nasdaq Composite had dropped 5.46 points, or 0.09 percent, to 5,894.59.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola May 2017 505.80 -5.00 -0.98%

Canola Jul 2017 510.60 -4.90 -0.95%

Canola Nov 2017 491.20 -4.50 -0.91%

Canola Jan 2018 496.50 -4.60 -0.92%

Canola Mar 2018 501.40 -4.00 -0.79%

 

Milling Wheat May 2017 237.00 +1.00 +0.42%

Milling Wheat Jul 2017 238.00 +1.00 +0.42%

Milling Wheat Oct 2017 230.00 +1.00 +0.44%

 

Durum Wheat May 2017 282.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2017 281.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2017 268.00 unch 0.00%

 

Barley May 2017 137.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2017 138.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2017 138.00 unch 0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans May 2017 1001.50 +3.50 +0.35%

Soybeans Jul 2017 1011.50 +3.50 +0.35%

Soybeans Aug 2017 1012.50 +3.75 +0.37%

Soybeans Sep 2017 1002.50 +3.00 +0.30%

Soybeans Nov 2017 995.50 +2.50 +0.25%

Soybeans Jan 2018 1000.75 +2.75 +0.28%

 

Soybean Meal May 2017 329.30 +1.70 +0.52%

Soybean Meal Jul 2017 332.60 +1.70 +0.51%

Soybean Meal Aug 2017 331.70 +1.60 +0.48%

 

Soybean Oil May 2017 32.26 +0.04 +0.12%

Soybean Oil Jul 2017 32.54 +0.04 +0.12%

Soybean Oil Aug 2017 32.63 +0.03 +0.09%

 

Corn May 2017 366.00 +2.50 +0.69%

Corn Jul 2017 373.50 +2.50 +0.67%

Corn Sep 2017 380.00 +2.50 +0.66%

Corn Dec 2017 387.50 +2.50 +0.65%

Corn Mar 2018 396.75 +2.75 +0.70%

 

Oats May 2017 249.25 -8.00 -3.11%

Oats Jul 2017 241.25 -7.75 -3.11%

Oats Sep 2017 234.75 -6.75 -2.80%

Oats Dec 2017 234.75 -6.00 -2.49%

Oats Mar 2018 233.75 unch 0.00%

 

Wheat May 2017 436.00 unch 0.00%

Wheat Jul 2017 451.00 +0.25 +0.06%

Wheat Sep 2017 465.50 +0.25 +0.05%

Wheat Dec 2017 483.75 +0.75 +0.16%

Wheat Mar 2018 498.25 +0.75 +0.15%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat May 2017 548.00 +7.50 +1.39%

Spring Wheat Jul 2017 553.25 +7.00 +1.28%

Spring Wheat Sep 2017 559.25 +7.00 +1.27%

Spring Wheat Dec 2017 568.00 +5.75 +1.02%

Spring Wheat Mar 2018 577.50 +4.50 +0.79%

 

Kansas

Hard Red Wheat May 2017 450.00 +2.75 +0.61%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 461.75 +2.75 +0.60%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 476.00 +2.25 +0.47%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017 495.25 +1.75 +0.35%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2018 509.25 +1.25 +0.25%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)

Live Cattle (P) Apr 2017 119.20 +1.50 +1.27%

Live Cattle (P) Jun 2017 109.42 +1.17 +1.08%

Live Cattle (P) Aug 2017 104.92 +0.95 +0.91%

 

Feeder Cattle (P) Mar 2017 130.55 +1.33 +1.03%

Feeder Cattle (P) Apr 2017 130.55 +1.85 +1.44%

Feeder Cattle (P) May 2017 129.42 +1.69 +1.32%

 

Lean Hogs (P) Apr 2017 69.90 -0.17 -0.24%

Lean Hogs (P) May 2017 74.80 -0.10 -0.13%

Lean Hogs (P) Jun 2017 78.67 -0.16 -0.20%

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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