Canola falls on weaker soybeans and technical weakness

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Published: May 30, 2017

More rain is headed toward the Canadian Prairies by Friday but until then it should be sunny and dry allowing progress on the delayed planting season.

Falling soybean futures and technical weakness drove canola futures lower on Tuesday.

July closed at $502.80 per tonne, down $9.40 or 1.8 percent while new crop November fell to $483, down $3.90 or 0.8 percent.

Farmer hedges were also a feature as seeding starts to wraps up in Manitoba and southern areas of the rest of the Prairies.

Northern areas of the grain belt are still behind.

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Manitoba’s crop report said yesterday that seeding of cultivated acres was about 90 percent complete. The western areas of the province are less advanced with 70 to 85 percent of crops in the ground.

Northern parts of Saskatchewan and Alberta are struggling with saturated soils.

RAIN

Central and southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan could see rain Friday. Rain on the weekend is forecast in northeastern Alberta and angling down across Saskatchewan toward the southeast corner and continuing into southwestern Manitoba.

WHEAT PROTEIN

Early signs are that excess moisture in the U.S. winter wheat crop will lower average protein.

Concerns about protein have widened the spread between the Kansas City winter wheat contract and the higher protein Minneapolis spring wheat contract. On Monday and today July Minneapolis closed at levels that are the highest since Feb. 16.

Soybean futures fell as rain in the Midwest over the Memorial Day long weekend was not as heavy as expected allowing for seeding progress.

Concerns about export demand also weighed on soybeans. Soybean crushers in China are suffering low margins.

Also, strong competition from Brazil is expected to continue from its record large crop and its weaker currency that makes it more competitive.

US SEEDING PROGRESS and CROP CONDITION

As of May 28 U.S. corn seeding is 91 percent complete, shy of the five year average of 93 percent.

This is the first week that the USDA has has condition ratings for corn.

It said 65 percent of the crop was good to excellent compared to 72 percent last year at the same point.

For soybeans, 67 percent was planted, one point below the five year average.

Soybean emergence was at 37 percent, short of the five year average of 40 percent.

For winter wheat, 80 percent is headed, ahead of the five year average of 77 percent.

Only 50 percent of the winter wheat crop was good to excellent, down from 52 percent the week before and 63 percent last year at the same point.

Kansas, the heart of the hard red winter wheat region, was 45 percent good to excellent, 30 percent fair and 25 percent poor to very poor.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York fell 14 cents to US$49.66 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US74.29 cents, down a little from 74.32 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.346.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down 49.56 points, or 0.32 percent, at 15,372.35.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 50.47 points, or 0.24 percent, to 21,029.81, the S&P 500 lost 2.89 points, or 0.12 percent, to 2,412.93 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 7.01 points, or 0.11 percent, to 6,203.19.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Jul 17       502.80       -9.40       -1.84%

Canola Nov 17       483.00       -3.90       -0.80%

Canola Jan 18       488.30       -4.00       -0.81%

Canola Mar 18       492.70       -4.10       -0.83%

Canola May 18       495.60       -4.10       -0.82%

 

Milling Wheat Jul 17       245.00       unch       unch

Milling Wheat Oct 17       242.00       unch       unch

Milling Wheat Dec 17       244.00       -1.00       -0.41%

 

Durum Wheat Jul 17       279.00       unch       unch

Durum Wheat Oct 17       267.00       unch       unch

Durum Wheat Dec 17       267.00       unch       unch

 

Barley Jul 17       138.00       unch       unch

Barley Oct 17       140.00       unch       unch

Barley Dec 17       140.00       unch       unch

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Jul 2017       912.75       -13.25       -1.43%

Soybeans Aug 2017       916.00       -13.00       -1.40%

Soybeans Sep 2017       916.50       -11.25       -1.21%

Soybeans Nov 2017       919.75       -9.50       -1.02%

Soybeans Jan 2018       927.75       -9.00       -0.96%

Soybeans Mar 2018       934.25       -7.25       -0.77%

 

Soybean Meal Jul 2017       297.60       -3.70       -1.23%

Soybean Meal Aug 2017       298.90       -3.60       -1.19%

Soybean Meal Sep 2017       300.30       -3.60       -1.18%

 

Soybean Oil Jul 2017       31.42       -0.18       -0.57%

Soybean Oil Aug 2017       31.54       -0.17       -0.54%

Soybean Oil Sep 2017       31.67       -0.14       -0.44%

 

Corn Jul 2017       367.00       -6.75       -1.81%

Corn Sep 2017       375.00       -6.25       -1.64%

Corn Dec 2017       385.75       -6.25       -1.59%

Corn Mar 2018       395.50       -6.75       -1.68%

Corn May 2018       401.75       -6.50       -1.59%

 

Oats Jul 2017       242.25       -2.75       -1.12%

Oats Sep 2017       236.00       -0.75       -0.32%

Oats Dec 2017       228.25       +0.25       +0.11%

Oats Mar 2018       223.25       -2.75       -1.22%

Oats May 2018       223.25       -2.75       -1.22%

 

Wheat Jul 2017       429.50       -9.25       -2.11%

Wheat Sep 2017       444.00       -8.25       -1.82%

Wheat Dec 2017       466.50       -7.00       -1.48%

Wheat Mar 2018       484.00       -7.25       -1.48%

Wheat May 2018       495.50       -7.50       -1.49%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Jul 2017       568.00       -1.50       -0.26%

Spring Wheat Sep 2017       572.00       -1.75       -0.31%

Spring Wheat Dec 2017       577.00       -1.50       -0.26%

Spring Wheat Mar 2018       582.50       -0.25       -0.04%

Spring Wheat May 2018       586.25       +0.50       +0.09%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017       433.25       -5.00       -1.14%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017       451.25       -4.25       -0.93%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017       476.50       -3.75       -0.78%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2018       491.50       -3.50       -0.71%

Hard Red Wheat May 2018       502.50       -1.00       -0.20%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)

Live Cattle (P) Jun 2017       122.97       +0.35       +0.29%

Live Cattle (P) Aug 2017       119.85       +0.97       +0.82%

Live Cattle (P) Oct 2017       116.52       +1.52       +1.32%

 

Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2017       149.92       +2.72       +1.85%

Feeder Cattle (P) Sep 2017       149.50       +2.40       +1.63%

Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 2017       148.28       +2.36       +1.62%

 

Lean Hogs (P) Jun 2017       80.50       -1.38       -1.69%

Lean Hogs (P) Jul 2017       81.00       -0.75       -0.92%

Lean Hogs (P) Aug 2017       81.00       -0.18       -0.22%

 

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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