Canola falls on weaker soy

Published: August 24, 2016

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ICE Canada canola futures fell on Wednesday, snapping a three-day winning streak, on pressure from commercial hedges and weaker U.S. soy prices.

Statistics Canada pegged this year’s canola production on the low range of expectations, which may have put some hesitation in the market.

Losses in crude oil and the vegetable oil market also weighed down values.

China is scheduled to limit the amount of dockage allowed in imports of Canadian canola on Sept. 1, which is causing some unease among traders.

Most-active November canola traded at times above the 50-day moving average around $473.25, but failed to stay at that level and trigger technical buying, a trader said.

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(Photo courtesy Canada Beef Inc.)

Feed Grains Weekly: Price likely to keep stepping back

As the harvest in southern Alberta presses on, a broker said that is one of the factors pulling feed prices lower in the region. Darcy Haley, vice-president of Ag Value Brokers in Lethbridge, added that lower cattle numbers in feedlots, plentiful amounts of grass for cattle to graze and a lacklustre export market also weighed on feed prices.

November canola lost $3.40 at $468.80 per tonne after touching $475.70, its highest price since July 15.

January canola gave up $3.10 at $475.60.

November-January canola spread traded 1,360 times.

Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell on Wednesday on strong U.S. crop prospects and mostly favourable weather conditions in the Midwest this week.

The trade closely watched the four-day Pro Farmer U.S. Midwest Crop Tour, which scouted impressive crops in central Illinois, following its observation a day earlier of above-average soybean pod counts in Nebraska and Indiana.

Illinois soybean crop potential was strong, with high pod counts and good soil moisture, scouts said.

The number of soybean pods in a three by three foot square averaged 1,458.2 pods along the two routes, up from 1,205.7 pods last year and the three-year tour average in these areas of 1,221.6 pods.

The tour does not project soybean yields but instead calculates the number of pods per square yard to gauge yield potential.

However, southwestern Iowa’s soybean crop potential looked below average.

U.S. soybeans benefit from strong demand due to production shortfalls in South America..

Most-active November soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade dropped 8 1/4 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $10.05 1/4 a bushel.

Chicago Board of Trade corn futures declined on Wednesday for a third straight session, pressured by optimism about U.S. crop prospects along with spillover weakness from soybeans and crude oil.

However, corn’s losses were more modest, as the Midwest Crop Tour results looked mixed.

Scouts on the western half of the annual Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour late Tuesday projected Nebraska’s corn yield at 158.60 bushels per acre, down from 165.16 in 2015 and below the tour’s three-year average of 161.29.

Scouts on the Pro Farmer tour’s eastern leg projected the Indiana corn yield at 173.42 bu. per acre, up both from last year’s estimate of 142.94 and the three-year crop tour average of 165.11.

Corn was further underpinned by a U.S. Department of Agriculture report that said private exporters sold 101,600 tonnes of U.S. corn to unknown destinations for 2016-17 delivery.

Most-active December corn futures lost one cent, or 0.2 percent, to $3.36 1/4. Prices earlier hit a low of $3.34 1/2 a bu., the weakest since Aug. 16.

Wheat is under pressure from expectations for Canada’s second-largest wheat crop in 25 years and a raised estimate for Ukrainian production.

Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade closed lower on Wednesday, with the spot September contract losing ground to back months on spreads, traders said.

Traders expect the CME Group, parent of the CBOT, to raise maximum storage charges for CBOT wheat next month, a factor that tends to widen price spreads between wheat contracts, pressuring nearby months.

CBOT September wheat settled down 3 3/4 cents at $4.04 per bu.

MGEX spring wheat futures closed lower, led by the spot September contract as the Canadian spring wheat harvest approached.

Kansas City hard red winter wheat closed fractionally higher, gaining against CBOT wheat on hopes for a pickup in export demand for U.S. hard wheat.

All three U.S. markets remain anchored by plentiful domestic and global wheat supplies.

The stronger U.S. dollar is making U.S. grains less attractive to those holding other currencies.

Feed barley bids in the key cattle feeding area of Lethbridge were in the C$170-$175 per tonne range as of Aug. 19, which was $5-$10 lower than the previous week, according to provincial reports.

Feed wheat prices were in the $184-$192 range, which was down roughly $15 from the previous week.

The Canadian dollar was trading at $1.2912 to the U.S. dollar, or 77.45 U.S. cents at 12:55 p.m. CDT, little changed from Tuesday’s close.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down $1.33 to US$46.77 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US77.28 cents, down from 77.51 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2940.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2016 468.80 -3.40 -0.72%
Canola Jan 2017 475.60 -3.10 -0.65%
Canola Mar 2017 481.60 -2.60 -0.54%
Canola May 2017 485.80 -2.40 -0.49%
Canola Jul 2017 489.40 -2.40 -0.49%

Milling Wheat Oct 2016 211.00 -3.00 -1.40%
Milling Wheat Dec 2016 214.00 -3.00 -1.38%
Milling Wheat Mar 2017 219.00 -2.00 -0.90%

Durum Wheat Oct 2016 261.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2016 264.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2017 269.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Barley Oct 2016 138.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Dec 2016 138.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2017 140.00 unch 0.00%

Soybeans Sep 2016 1030.75 -3.50 -0.34%
Soybeans Nov 2016 1005.25 -8.25 -0.81%
Soybeans Jan 2017 1006.00 -8.25 -0.81%
Soybeans Mar 2017 1003.50 -7.25 -0.72%
Soybeans May 2017 1001.25 -6.50 -0.65%
Soybeans Jul 2017 1000.50 -6.00 -0.60%

Soybean Meal Sep 2016 331.50 -0.90 -0.27%
Soybean Meal Oct 2016 329.20 -1.30 -0.39%
Soybean Meal Dec 2016 326.90 -1.60 -0.49%

Soybean Oil Sep 2016 33.57 -0.32 -0.94%
Soybean Oil Oct 2016 33.70 -0.34 -1.00%
Soybean Oil Dec 2016 33.99 -0.33 -0.96%

Corn Sep 2016 327.50 -1.00 -0.30%
Corn Dec 2016 336.25 -1.00 -0.30%
Corn Mar 2017 346.00 -1.00 -0.29%
Corn May 2017 352.75 -1.00 -0.28%
Corn Jul 2017 359.50 -1.25 -0.35%

Oats Sep 2016 169.25 -2.25 -1.31%
Oats Dec 2016 184.75 -1.50 -0.81%
Oats Mar 2017 197.00 -1.50 -0.76%
Oats May 2017 200.00 -1.75 -0.87%
Oats Jul 2017 205.25 -2.00 -0.97%

Wheat Sep 2016 404.00 -3.75 -0.92%
Wheat Dec 2016 426.25 -1.25 -0.29%
Wheat Mar 2017 448.50 -1.50 -0.33%

Wheat May 2017 462.25 -2.25 -0.48%
Wheat Jul 2017 471.00 -2.50 -0.53%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2016 501.75 -14.00 -2.71%
Spring Wheat Dec 2016 508.75 -7.00 -1.36%
Spring Wheat Mar 2017 520.50 -5.50 -1.05%
Spring Wheat May 2017 529.75 -5.25 -0.98%
Spring Wheat Jul 2017 538.75 -4.75 -0.87%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016 407.75 +0.50 +0.12%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016 434.00 +0.50 +0.12%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017 450.25 +0.50 +0.11%
Hard Red Wheat May 2017 460.50 +0.25 +0.05%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 470.00 +0.25 +0.05%

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)
Live Cattle (P) Aug 2016 112.72 -0.53 -0.47%
Live Cattle (P) Oct 2016 108.90 -0.82 -0.75%
Live Cattle (P) Dec 2016 110.15 -0.82 -0.74%

Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2016 146.65 +0.20 +0.14%
Feeder Cattle (P) Sep 2016 143.00 -0.93 -0.65%
Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 2016 139.08 -1.37 -0.98%

Lean Hogs (P) Oct 2016 60.32 -0.20 -0.33%
Lean Hogs (P) Dec 2016 56.05 -0.48 -0.85%
Lean Hogs (P) Feb 2017 60.80 -0.48 -0.78%

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