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Canola falls on technical weakness, falling soybeans

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Published: May 15, 2014

Canola retreated Thursday, saddled by technical weakness and a falling U.S. crop market.

The failure of the July contract to break above $500 on Wednesday injected a factor of technical weakness that lingered into today.

The first good week for seeding progress in most of Western Canada also weighed on canola.

Saskatchewan Agriculture said farmers in the province had seven percent of the crop in the ground, short of the five-year average of nine percent and well back of the 10-year average of 15 percent.

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Alas, work will likely stall this weekend with rain over large parts of the Prairies expected Sunday and Monday.

Wheat, corn and soybeans also fell.

Kansas and Minneapolis wheat fell more than three percent while Chicago fell about 1.7 percent. The decline gained momentum as the price fell below technical levels such as the 20-day moving average.

Weekly export sales of old crop U.S. wheat were below expectations and cash bids for wheat at Pacific ports are falling because of weak export demand for pricey American wheat.

Europe’s Strategie Grains raised its forecast of EU soft wheat exports for the current crop year to a record high 28.1 million tonnes, up 1.3 million.

Analyst Informa Economics trimmed its forecast for U.S. corn and spring wheat seeded acreage and increased its outlook for soybean seedings.

Corn futures fell on technical weakness and improved planting weather expected in the northern U.S. corn belt next week.

Soybean futures fell after the National Oilseed Processors Association’s monthly crush data showed the pace of crushing was roughly in line with expectations during April.

NOPA said processors crushed 132.667 million bushels of soybeans during April, the most for the month in five years.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada, dollars per tonne

Canola Jul 2014       484.90       -7.90       -1.60%

Canola Nov 2014       480.40       -4.90       -1.01%

Canola Jan 2015       483.80       -4.90       -1.00%

Canola Mar 2015       485.40       -5.30       -1.08%

Canola May 2015       486.60       -4.80       -0.98%

 

Milling Wheat Jul 2014       232.00       -8.00       -3.33%

Milling Wheat Oct 2014       231.00       -9.00       -3.75%

Milling Wheat Dec 2014       234.00       -9.00       -3.70%

 

Durum Wheat Jul 2014       252.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2014       243.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2014       245.00       +2.00       +0.82%

 

Barley Jul 2014       150.00       +4.30       +2.95%

Barley Oct 2014       150.00       +4.30       +2.95%

Barley Dec 2014       152.00       +6.30       +4.32%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Jul 2014       1470.25       -16.5       -1.11%

Soybeans Aug 2014       1401.75       -14.25       -1.01%

Soybeans Sep 2014       1273.75       -3.25       -0.25%

Soybeans Nov 2014       1217.75       -4.75       -0.39%

Soybeans Jan 2015       1223.75       -5       -0.41%

Soybeans Mar 2015       1227.75       -5.75       -0.47%

 

Soybean Meal Jul 2014       481.4       -5.1       -1.05%

Soybean Meal Aug 2014       455.4       -4       -0.87%

Soybean Meal Sep 2014       420.4       -0.8       -0.19%

 

Soybean Oil Jul 2014       41.04       -0.34       -0.82%

Soybean Oil Aug 2014       40.99       -0.3       -0.73%

Soybean Oil Sep 2014       40.92       -0.23       -0.56%

 

Corn Jul 2014       484.25       -11.25       -2.27%

Corn Sep 2014       481       -9.75       -1.99%

Corn Dec 2014       480.5       -8.5       -1.74%

Corn Mar 2015       488.5       -8.5       -1.71%

Corn May 2015       494.25       -8.75       -1.74%

 

Oats Jul 2014       350.5       -5.75       -1.61%

Oats Sep 2014       339.5       -3.25       -0.95%

Oats Dec 2014       332.5       -2       -0.60%

Oats Mar 2015       327       -4.25       -1.28%

Oats May 2015       323       -1.5       -0.46%

 

Wheat Jul 2014       678.25       -12       -1.74%

Wheat Sep 2014       687       -12       -1.72%

Wheat Dec 2014       702.75       -12.25       -1.71%

Wheat Mar 2015       717       -12.75       -1.75%

Wheat May 2015       724       -13.5       -1.83%

 

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Jul 2014       755       -23.25       -2.99%

Spring Wheat Sep 2014       762.75       -20.75       -2.65%

Spring Wheat Dec 2014       768.5       -24.25       -3.06%

Spring Wheat Mar 2015       773.5       -24.75       -3.10%

Spring Wheat May 2015       774.5       -24.5       -3.07%

 

 

Kansas City

KC HRW Wheat Jul 2014       778.75       -27.5       -3.41%

KC HRW Wheat Sep 2014       784       -26.75       -3.30%

KC HRW Wheat Dec 2014       796       -25.25       -3.07%

KC HRW Wheat Mar 2015       799.5       -24.25       -2.94%

KC HRW Wheat May 2015       792       -24.5       -3.00%

 

The Bank of Canada’s noon rate for the loonie was 91.85 cents US, steady with the day before. The U.S. dollar was $1.0887 Cdn.

Crude oil June futures on the Chicago market fell 87 cents to $101.50 per barrel.

The TSX composite was lower on weaker oil prices and questions about what will lead the market higher after gaining about seven percent so far this year.

U.S. stocks were also taking a breather after recent gains. Wal-Mart posted weaker than expected forecast for quarterly profits. There is weakness in small cap stocks.

Also Russia’s president Vladimir Putin said he would cut off the natural gas supply to Europe June 1 if Ukraine does not pay its gas bills, which have reached $3.5 billion.

In early tallies, the TSX closed down 84.84 points, or 0.58 percent at 14,588.89.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 167.16 points or 1.01 percent, to end at 16,446.81.

The S&P 500 lost 17.68 points or 0.94 percent, to finish at 1,870.85.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 31.33 points or 0.76 percent, to close at 4,069.29.

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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