Canola falls four pct on week on falling soybeans, harvest pressure

Canola ended on a down note Friday, capping a week where the November contract fell almost $20 a tonne or four percent.

Canola today was pressured by falling soybeans as forecasts call for needed rain in the Midwest. There was additional pressure from traders unwinding long soybeans-short corn spreads.

Lingering worries about China’s economy and currency also contributed to the negativity.

Canola also was pressured by early harvest progress in Western Canada, however delays are in store as rain is forecast for central Alberta and the northern grain belt in Saskatchewan tonight and Saturday, as well as popup thunderstorms as a cold front moves in.

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Southern parts of the Prairies should miss most of the rain.

Another rain system could move across the Prairies at the end of next week. So much for Environment Canada’s forecast for a dry August.

A U.S. weather forecaster, Commodity Weather Group, said one weather model suggested the risk of frost in northwestern Alberta late next week. The Weather Network long term forecast does not have a frost threat, with Grande Prairie Friday morning at +7C.

The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association said the weekly crush fell to 131,237 tonnes or only about 66 percent of crush capacity.

Canola crush margins are the weakest in years.

Reuters reported that the trade, on average, expects the Statistics Canada crop production forecast due next Friday will put the projected canola harvest at 13.6 million tonnes.

The CWB crop tour in July pegged the crop at 12.5 million tonnes, but the moisture situation improved following the tour. Last year’s crop was 15.56 million tonnes.

Canola did better on the week than soybeans, which fell 4.9 percent, with most of the losses occurring Wednesday when the monthly USDA supply and demand report increased its outlook for U.S. corn and soybeans, when the trade had expected a decline.

Next week the trade will closely watch the Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour for its take on corn and soybean yields potential.

Chicago wheat edged higher on bargain buying. On the week Chicago nearby wheat posted a 0.8 percent weekly decline.

A Reuters poll puts Canada’s wheat production down 13 percent this year after hot, dry weather in the western Prairies. The would put the all wheat number at about 25.5 million tonnes.

Corn edged a fraction higher on bargain buying. For the week, corn fell two percent. Corn crop forecast cuts in France also supported corn.

The hot summer weather that trimmed corn yields in France has not hurt wheat. The government forecast is for a record large soft wheat crop this year.

ICE Futures Canada adjusted its milling wheat and durum contract prices. There was no trade.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 27 cents at US$42.50 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US76.46 cents, unchanged from 76.46 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3078.

U.S. stocks ended higher on Friday after upbeat U.S. economic data and as euro zone finance ministers agreed to launch a third bailout program for Greece.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index unofficially closed up 39.48 points, or 0.28 percent, at 14,277.88. The index fell 0.2 percent on the week.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 69.22 points, or 0.4 percent, to 17,477.47, the S&P 500 gained 8.18 points, or 0.39 percent, to 2,091.57 and the Nasdaq Composite added 14.68 points, or 0.29 percent, to 5,048.24.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2015 486.50 -5.40 -1.10%

Canola Jan 2016 485.20 -5.60 -1.14%

Canola Mar 2016 484.10 -5.70 -1.16%

Canola May 2016 480.90 -5.40 -1.11%

Canola Jul 2016 476.40 -5.40 -1.12%

Milling Wheat Oct 2015 223.00 -1.00 0.00%

Milling Wheat Dec 2015 223.00 -1.00 0.00%

Milling Wheat Mar 2016 227.00 -1.00 0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2015 355.00 -10.00

Durum Wheat Dec 2015 360.00 -10.00

Durum Wheat Mar 2016 370.00 -10.00

Barley Oct 2015 205.10 0.00 0.00%

Barley Dec 2015 205.10 0.00 0.00%

Barley Mar 2016 207.10 0.00 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Sep 2015 925.25 -11.25 -1.20%

Soybeans Nov 2015 916.5 -10.75 -1.16%

Soybeans Jan 2016 922 -11.5 -1.23%

Soybeans Mar 2016 921.25 -11 -1.18%

Soybeans May 2016 920.5 -11 -1.18%

Soybeans Jul 2016 924 -11.5 -1.23%

Soybean Meal Sep 2015 325.2 -5.8 -1.75%

Soybean Meal Oct 2015 317 -5.6 -1.74%

Soybean Meal Dec 2015 314.2 -5.8 -1.81%

Soybean Oil Sep 2015 29.08 +0.11 +0.38%

Soybean Oil Oct 2015 29.19 +0.11 +0.38%

Soybean Oil Dec 2015 29.4 +0.08 +0.27%

Corn Sep 2015 364 +0.5 +0.14%

Corn Dec 2015 375.5 +0.5 +0.13%

Corn Mar 2016 387 +0.5 +0.13%

Corn May 2016 394 unch 0.00%

Corn Jul 2016 399 -0.25 -0.06%

Oats Sep 2015 227.5 -1.25 -0.55%

Oats Dec 2015 239.5 +0.75 +0.31%

Oats Mar 2016 248 -1.25 -0.50%

Oats May 2016 255.25 +0.25 +0.10%

Oats Jul 2016 256.25 +0.25 +0.10%

Chicago soft red

Wheat Sep 2015 506.5 +2.75 +0.55%

Wheat Dec 2015 511.75 +1.75 +0.34%

Wheat Mar 2016 516.75 +0.75 +0.15%

Wheat May 2016 520.5 +0.5 +0.10%

Wheat Jul 2016 523.5 unch 0.00%

Minneapolis hard red spring

Spring Wheat Sep 2015 518.5 +0.25 +0.05%

Spring Wheat Dec 2015 533.75 -0.25 -0.05%

Spring Wheat Mar 2016 549.25 -1.25 -0.23%

Spring Wheat May 2016 559 -1.75 -0.31%

Spring Wheat Jul 2016 567.5 -3.25 -0.57%

Kansas City hard red winter

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 489.75 +4.75 +0.98%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015 510 +4 +0.79%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 524 +3.25 +0.62%

Hard Red Wheat May 2016 534 +3.5 +0.66%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016 543.5 +2.75 +0.51%

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