Canola once more revealed itself as an oil-priced crop Monday, falling as soybeans rose, soy meal rose and soy oil fell.
March canola futures fell $3.90 per tonne and May fell $4.
Spring wheat was essentially flat, but oats rose a few cents.
Soybeans were pushed higher by surging soy meal prices and good soybean export inspections, and falling soy oil prices merely restricted the per bushel gains to 14-15 cents.
Monday’s continuing slide in canola didn’t raise any smiles from those long canola, but the oilseed’s appalling weakness since the beginning of December made one trader at least feel optimistic that prices can’t get much worse by themselves.
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U.S. soybean futures fell to a 1-1/2 week low on Tuesday as China continued to shun purchases from the United States and as forecasts for improved rains in the coming days reinforced expectations for a sizeable Midwest harvest.
“I don’t know how much lower we can go here,” said John Duvenaud, who edits the Wild Oats markets newsletter and advisory service.
“I think we’re at the bottom now.”
Ample supplies of canola on the Canadian Prairies and a worldwide glut of vegetable oil have depressed prices, but Duvenaud said the answer to today’s low prices are the low prices. That also applies to Canadian wheat and other crops grown on the Prairies.
“Western Canada is a low-priced island in the world,” said Duvenaud.
“We’ve got some of the cheapest grain in the world right here, right now.”
Canadian canola futures weren’t helped by the strength of the Canadian dollar Monday, which rose as the U.S. dollar generally fell.
The continuing strength of soybeans is due to soybean meal, which is used as an animal feed in the Midwest.
Big profits for hog and cattle producers are keeping demand high, while supplies are low and still attempting to rebuild after the 2012 drought.
“It was a great day for meal. These livestock feeders are making money hand over fist,” said Duvenaud.
“They’re feeding as much as they can, to as heavy a weight as they can.”
Overall, crop futures were modestly up Monday and one of the strongest commodity classes.
Stock markets fell sharply with the Dow 30 down around 180 points late in the trading day, regardless of the weak greenback. Energy stocks led the slump, reacting to weak oil prices and some predictions of a glut of oil on world markets.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jan 2014 416.90 -3.90 -0.93%
Canola Mar 2014 425.90 -3.90 -0.91%
Canola May 2014 435.00 -4.00 -0.91%
Canola Jul 2014 443.50 -4.20 -0.94%
Canola Nov 2014 456.70 -4.40 -0.95%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 182.00 +3.00 +1.68%
Milling Wheat May 2014 188.00 +4.00 +2.17%
Milling Wheat Jul 2014 190.00 +4.00 +2.15%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 243.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2014 247.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2014 248.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2014 136.50 -9.50 -6.51%
Barley May 2014 138.50 -9.50 -6.42%
Barley Jul 2014 138.50 -9.50 -6.42%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Jan 2014 1326.75 +23 +1.76%
Soybeans Mar 2014 1294.25 +15.75 +1.23%
Soybeans May 2014 1274.25 +14.25 +1.13%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1260.75 +14.75 +1.18%
Soybeans Aug 2014 1224.5 +14.75 +1.22%
Soybeans Sep 2014 1159.75 +14.75 +1.29%
Soybean Meal Jan 2014 446.9 +11.7 +2.69%
Soybean Meal Mar 2014 421.9 +8.3 +2.01%
Soybean Meal May 2014 408.7 +6.5 +1.62%
Soybean Oil Jan 2014 37.57 -0.38 -1.00%
Soybean Oil Mar 2014 37.84 -0.39 -1.02%
Soybean Oil May 2014 38.18 -0.38 -0.99%
Corn Mar 2014 434.5 +1.75 +0.40%
Corn May 2014 442.5 +1.75 +0.40%
Corn Jul 2014 449.25 +1.75 +0.39%
Corn Sep 2014 453.75 +1 +0.22%
Corn Dec 2014 458.5 +0.25 +0.05%
Oats Mar 2014 393 +6.5 +1.68%
Oats May 2014 346 +4.75 +1.39%
Oats Jul 2014 324.25 -1 -0.31%
Oats Sep 2014 306.5 -4.75 -1.53%
Oats Dec 2014 299.5 -5 -1.64%
Wheat Mar 2014 573.5 +4.5 +0.79%
Wheat May 2014 580.5 +5.5 +0.96%
Wheat Jul 2014 587.25 +6.5 +1.12%
Wheat Sep 2014 596.75 +6.25 +1.06%
Wheat Dec 2014 610.75 +6.25 +1.03%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 617.75 -2.75 -0.44%
Spring Wheat May 2014 621.5 +0.5 +0.08%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 629 +0.75 +0.12%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014 637.25 +0.75 +0.12%
Spring Wheat Dec 2014 650.25 unch 0.00%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 619.75 -6.25 -1.00%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 618.75 -4.75 -0.76%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 618.25 -2 -0.32%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014 630.75 -1.75 -0.28%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2014 645.75 -2 -0.31%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped 92 cents at $91.80 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 92 cents US, up from 91.60 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0869 Cdn.
The TSX composite closed down 66.04 points or 0.48 percent at 13,681.48.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 179.11 points or 1.09 percent, to 16,257.94.
The S&P 500 lost 23.17 points or 1.26 percent, to 1,819.2.
The Nasdaq Composite dropped 61.36 points or 1.47 percent, to 4,113.304.
