The Canadian dollar trade that has helped keep canola relatively strong unwound a bit more Monday, helping canola fall further than its peers.
“Ever since the (Canadian) dollar bottomed, that’s been the trend,” said Ken Ball, a broker with P.I. Financial in Winnipeg.
“Traders were massively long canola and short soy, playing the dollar all the way down for a long, long time. As soon as the dollar showed some signs that it’s turned. they’ve unwound all those spreads.”
Canola fell $4.30 per tonne, or almost 10 cents per bushel, to $471.10 for March and $480.70 for May.
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Soybean components all fell Monday, but not by as much as canola. Soybeans fell less than half a percent.
All other major North American crop commodities fell Monday, with wheat and oats weaker than the oilseeds.
Russia’s rumoured increases to export taxes don’t now appear to be actually happening, which was a bearish realization.
The U.S. winter wheat belt is also expected to receive good snow, which is also bearish. Snow protects winter wheat from winterkill and provides moisture for spring growth.
There is also a generalized feeling, a market mood, that Southern Hemisphere crops are about to experience better weather.
In an interesting development Monday, oil prices fell but the Canadian dollar rose. This is suggesting that the loonie might have reached a temporary or longer-term bottom against the greenback.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down $2 to US$31.62 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US71.40 cents, up from 71.02 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.4006.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Mar 2016 471.10 -4.30 -0.90%
Canola May 2016 480.70 -4.30 -0.89%
Canola Jul 2016 486.70 -3.90 -0.79%
Canola Nov 2016 487.50 -2.20 -0.45%
Canola Jan 2017 488.90 -2.30 -0.47%
Milling Wheat Mar 2016 235.00 -2.00 -0.84%
Milling Wheat May 2016 238.00 -1.00 -0.42%
Milling Wheat Jul 2016 241.00 -2.00 -0.82%
Durum Wheat Mar 2016 322.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2016 330.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2016 330.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2016 190.00 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2016 194.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2016 196.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Mar 2016 880.75 -1.5 -0.17%
Soybeans Jul 2016 887.75 -2.25 -0.25%
Soybeans Aug 2016 889.25 -2.5 -0.28%
Soybeans Sep 2016 888.25 -2.5 -0.28%
Soybeans Nov 2016 890.25 -2.75 -0.31%
Soybean Meal Mar 2016 271 -1.4 -0.51%
Soybean Meal May 2016 273.1 -1.3 -0.47%
Soybean Meal Jul 2016 275.5 -1.1 -0.40%
Soybean Oil Mar 2016 30.76 -0.12 -0.39%
Soybean Oil May 2016 30.96 -0.13 -0.42%
Soybean Oil Jul 2016 31.2 -0.13 -0.41%
Corn Mar 2016 371.25 -0.75 -0.20%
Corn May 2016 375.75 -1 -0.27%
Corn Jul 2016 380.5 -1 -0.26%
Corn Sep 2016 384.75 -1.25 -0.32%
Corn Dec 2016 392 -1.25 -0.32%
Oats Mar 2016 197.25 -3.5 -1.74%
Oats May 2016 206 -2.5 -1.20%
Oats Jul 2016 212.75 -2.25 -1.05%
Oats Sep 2016 218.5 -2 -0.91%
Oats Dec 2016 215.5 -2 -0.92%
Wheat Mar 2016 475.25 -4 -0.83%
Wheat May 2016 480.5 -4.5 -0.93%
Wheat Jul 2016 485.75 -4.75 -0.97%
Wheat Sep 2016 494.5 -5 -1.00%
Wheat Dec 2016 507.75 -5 -0.98%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat May 2016 500.75 -4.75 -0.94%
Spring Wheat Jul 2016 508 -4 -0.78%
Spring Wheat Sep 2016 518 -3.75 -0.72%
Spring Wheat Dec 2016 533 -3 -0.56%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 466.75 -5.25 -1.11%
Hard Red Wheat May 2016 476.75 -5.5 -1.14%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016 487 -5.25 -1.07%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016 500.75 -5 -0.99%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016 520.25 -5 -0.95%
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