Canola falls as loonie rises

The Canadian dollar trade that has helped keep canola relatively strong unwound a bit more Monday, helping canola fall further than its peers.

“Ever since the (Canadian) dollar bottomed, that’s been the trend,” said Ken Ball, a broker with P.I. Financial in Winnipeg.

“Traders were massively long canola and short soy, playing the dollar all the way down for a long, long time. As soon as the dollar showed some signs that it’s turned. they’ve unwound all those spreads.”

Canola fell $4.30 per tonne, or almost 10 cents per bushel, to $471.10 for March and $480.70 for May.

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Soybean components all fell Monday, but not by as much as canola. Soybeans fell less than half a percent.

All other major North American crop commodities fell Monday, with wheat and oats weaker than the oilseeds.

Russia’s rumoured increases to export taxes don’t now appear to be actually happening, which was a bearish realization.

The U.S. winter wheat belt is also expected to receive good snow, which is also bearish. Snow protects winter wheat from winterkill and provides moisture for spring growth.

There is also a generalized feeling, a market mood, that Southern Hemisphere crops are about to experience better weather.

In an interesting development Monday, oil prices fell but the Canadian dollar rose. This is suggesting that the loonie might have reached a temporary or longer-term bottom against the greenback.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down $2 to US$31.62 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US71.40 cents, up from 71.02 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.4006.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Mar 2016   471.10   -4.30   -0.90%
Canola May 2016   480.70   -4.30   -0.89%
Canola Jul 2016   486.70   -3.90   -0.79%
Canola Nov 2016   487.50   -2.20   -0.45%
Canola Jan 2017   488.90   -2.30   -0.47%

Milling Wheat Mar 2016   235.00   -2.00   -0.84%
Milling Wheat May 2016   238.00   -1.00   -0.42%
Milling Wheat Jul 2016   241.00   -2.00   -0.82%

Durum Wheat Mar 2016   322.00   unch   0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2016   330.00   unch   0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2016   330.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Mar 2016   190.00   unch   0.00%
Barley May 2016   194.00   unch   0.00%
Barley Jul 2016   196.00   unch   0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans Mar 2016   880.75   -1.5   -0.17%

Soybeans May 2016   882.25   -2.25   -0.25%
Soybeans Jul 2016   887.75   -2.25   -0.25%
Soybeans Aug 2016   889.25   -2.5   -0.28%
Soybeans Sep 2016   888.25   -2.5   -0.28%
Soybeans Nov 2016   890.25   -2.75   -0.31%

Soybean Meal Mar 2016   271   -1.4   -0.51%
Soybean Meal May 2016   273.1   -1.3   -0.47%
Soybean Meal Jul 2016   275.5   -1.1   -0.40%

Soybean Oil Mar 2016   30.76   -0.12   -0.39%
Soybean Oil May 2016   30.96   -0.13   -0.42%
Soybean Oil Jul 2016   31.2   -0.13   -0.41%

Corn Mar 2016   371.25   -0.75   -0.20%
Corn May 2016   375.75   -1   -0.27%
Corn Jul 2016   380.5   -1   -0.26%
Corn Sep 2016   384.75   -1.25   -0.32%
Corn Dec 2016   392   -1.25   -0.32%

Oats Mar 2016   197.25   -3.5   -1.74%
Oats May 2016   206   -2.5   -1.20%
Oats Jul 2016   212.75   -2.25   -1.05%
Oats Sep 2016   218.5   -2   -0.91%
Oats Dec 2016   215.5   -2   -0.92%

Wheat Mar 2016   475.25   -4   -0.83%
Wheat May 2016   480.5   -4.5   -0.93%
Wheat Jul 2016   485.75   -4.75   -0.97%
Wheat Sep 2016   494.5   -5   -1.00%
Wheat Dec 2016   507.75   -5   -0.98%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 2016   495   -5   -1.00%
Spring Wheat May 2016   500.75   -4.75   -0.94%
Spring Wheat Jul 2016   508   -4   -0.78%
Spring Wheat Sep 2016   518   -3.75   -0.72%
Spring Wheat Dec 2016   533   -3   -0.56%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016   466.75   -5.25   -1.11%
Hard Red Wheat May 2016   476.75   -5.5   -1.14%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016   487   -5.25   -1.07%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016   500.75   -5   -0.99%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016   520.25   -5   -0.95%

Contact ed.white@producer.com