Canola falls again Wednesday on good weather and overbought signals

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Published: June 5, 2013

Canola futures fell Wednesday on thoughts that the price was overbought and on generally good growing weather in Western Canada.

Also, increases in farmer deliveries now that seeding is mostly complete weighed on the market.

Soybeans were mixed with old crop futures rising on tight stocks and steady demand. New crop soybeans fell on an unwinding of the risk premium built in recently over slow seeding. While the rain delays some field work, it is good for growing crops.

Soy oil was generally lower.

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U.S. grains: Chicago corn, soybeans and wheat firm ahead of crop estimate

Chicago | Reuters — Chicago corn, soybean and wheat futures ticked up on Monday as traders awaited U.S. government harvest…

Crop forecaster Lanworth cut its forecast for world corn production by four million tonnes to 961 million due to planting delays in the U.S. that could trim seeded area.

It cut its U.S. corn harvest outlook to 13.8 billion bushels, down one percent a previous estimate, due to expectations for an 800,000-acre cut to plantings.

It affirmed earlier world production outlooks of 286 million tonnes of soybeans and 694 million tonnes of wheat.

USDA’s current forecasts are corn 965.9 million tonnes, soybeans 285.5 million and wheat 701.1 million.

Malaysian palm oil futures edged higher off a near two-week low. Traders turned slightly optimistic on thoughs palm oil stocks in May could have eased to a near one-year low at 1.78 million tonnes, according to a Reuters survey of five plantation companies. Official stocks data is expected on Monday.

A week of sunny warm weather is expected over Germany and France where crops are delayed after a cool wet May.

Argentina’s soybean crop has lower protein than normal and that is expected to lower the value  of its soy meal and give American soy meal an edge in the market.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

 

Canola Jul 2013       631.00       -5.70       -0.90%

Canola Nov 2013       566.00       -6.00       -1.05%

Canola Jan 2014       567.60       -4.30       -0.75%

Canola Mar 2014       563.80       -4.10       -0.72%

Canola May 2014       557.40       -3.00       -0.54%

 

Milling Wheat Jul 2013       294.00       unch       0.00%

Milling Wheat Oct 2013       294.00       unch       0.00%

Milling Wheat Dec 2013       294.00       unch       0.00%

 

Durum Wheat Jul 2013       301.90       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2013       294.90       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2013       299.40       unch       0.00%

 

Barley Jul 2013       244.00       unch       0.00%

Barley Oct 2013       194.00       unch       0.00%

Barley Dec 2013       199.00       unch       0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Jul 2013       1532       +3.25       +0.21%

Soybeans Aug 2013       1454.75       +2.75       +0.19%

Soybeans Sep 2013       1354       -6.25       -0.46%

Soybeans Nov 2013       1300       -16       -1.22%

Soybeans Jan 2014       1305       -15.75       -1.19%

Soybeans Mar 2014       1304.25       -15       -1.14%

 

Soybean Meal Jul 2013       455.9       +3.4       +0.75%

Soybean Meal Aug 2013       432.7       +3.3       +0.77%

Soybean Meal Sep 2013       408       -0.8       -0.20%

 

Soybean Oil Jul 2013       48.3       -0.29       -0.60%

Soybean Oil Aug 2013       48.27       -0.29       -0.60%

Soybean Oil Sep 2013       48.05       -0.36       -0.74%

 

Corn Jul 2013       660.75       +0.25       +0.04%

Corn Sep 2013       571       -12.75       -2.18%

Corn Dec 2013       542.25       -10.75       -1.94%

Corn Mar 2014       552.75       -10.75       -1.91%

Corn May 2014       560       -10.75       -1.88%

 

Oats Jul 2013       384.5       +2.75       +0.72%

Oats Sep 2013       377.25       +4.75       +1.28%

Oats Dec 2013       367       +1.25       +0.34%

Oats Mar 2014       372.5       +2.75       +0.74%

Oats May 2014       374.75       +2.75       +0.74%

 

Wheat Jul 2013       701.5       -7.5       -1.06%

Wheat Sep 2013       709       -8.75       -1.22%

Wheat Dec 2013       722.75       -9       -1.23%

Wheat Mar 2014       737.25       -9.75       -1.31%

Wheat May 2014       747       -11.75       -1.55%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Jul 2013       816       -5       -0.61%

Spring Wheat Sep 2013       804.5       -5.75       -0.71%

Spring Wheat Dec 2013       810.5       -7.25       -0.89%

Spring Wheat Mar 2014       821.75       -8.5       -1.02%

Spring Wheat May 2014       828.75       -9.25       -1.10%

 

Kansas City

KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2013       743.25       -7.5       -1.00%

KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013       751.25       -8.5       -1.12%

KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013       767.75       -11.5       -1.48%

KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014       779.75       -12.75       -1.61%

KCBT Red Wheat May 2014       788       -13.5       -1.68%

 

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 43 cents at $93.74 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 96.67 cents US, up from 96.64 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0345 Cdn.

U.S. economic growth concerns resurfaced after a sluggish private payrolls report.

In early tallies

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index fell 150.32 points, or 1.19 percent, at 12,443.65.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 216.72 points, or 1.43 percent, at 14,960.82.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was down 22.48 points, or 1.38 percent, at 1,608.90.

The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 43.78 points, or 1.27 percent, at 3,401.48.

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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