Canola futures continued their decent Tuesday on the same factors that have dogged them for several weeks: no urgent weather threats and technical weakness.
November canola closed at $482.80, down $7.60.
Pressure also came from falling soybeans and soy oil. The U.S. Midwest continues to enjoy good growing weather.
The cool weather in Western Canada has allowed a long flowering period, which is good for yields, but the low temperatures and cloud are not helping to advance maturity.
Environment Canada has forecast a warmer than normal August. Let’s hope it is correct and that frost stays away.
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ICE Weekly: Trade progress, new data threaten to break canola’s price range
Canola futures could be affected by trade progress between Canada and China as well as the USDA’s November supply and demand estimates.
Oilseed analyst Oil World increased its outlook for the European Union’s 2013 rapeseed harvest to 20.5 million tonnes, up 100,000 tonnes since its last outlook in early July and up from last year’s 19.41 million.
Early harvest results in parts of east Europe are positive, and contributed to the larger crop forecast, Oil World told Reuters. But it said it is not as optimistic as some traders about the harvest in the EU’s largest producer Germany.
Japan today said it would resume buying U.S. western white winter wheat, months after banning shipments because an unapproved genetically modified strain was found in a field in Oregon.
Bargain buying helped lift wheat futures today and that spilled over into the corn pits. China has continued to buy wheat, mostly from Australia, to help replace its damaged crop, which was hurt by rains at harvest.
Crop quality was a concern in France, with the main issue protein after some weak results in harvesting around the Atlantic port of La Pallice failed to meet the 11 percent protein level required for French milling wheat and export supplies. Very hot weather in Germany could also be hurting wheat quality, as the temperature pushes the crop to maturity too quickly.
Millers are reporting that heavy rain at harvest in the U.S. soft red wheat region has also hurt quality.
Heavy rain in central Kansas yesterday caused flooding. Not long ago, the area was affected by severe drought. The winter wheat crop there is all harvested so the rain did no damage to that crop. Smaller quantities of rain fell in a larger area providing a benefit to developing soy crops.
There are reports from North Dakota of a recent touch of frost hurting sunflowers.
Malaysian palm oil rose two percent on hope that reports would show exports increased in the second half of July.
India’s monsoon continues to exceed expectations leading to hopes for a bumper crop. However in some places the moisture is excessive. From June 1 to July 29 the rain has been 17 percent more than the 50-year average.
ICE Futures Canada, dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2013 482.80 -7.60 -1.55%
Canola Jan 2014 486.70 -7.10 -1.44%
Canola Mar 2014 490.40 -7.20 -1.45%
Canola May 2014 492.70 -7.40 -1.48%
Canola Jul 2014 495.40 -7.40 -1.47%
Milling Wheat Oct 2013 254.00 -2.00 -0.78%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013 257.00 -2.00 -0.77%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 264.00 -2.00 -0.75%
Durum Wheat Oct 2013 293.00 -3.00 -1.01%
Durum Wheat Dec 2013 297.00 -4.00 -1.33%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 307.00 -4.00 -1.29%
Barley Oct 2013 189.00 -5.00 -2.58%
Barley Dec 2013 194.00 -5.00 -2.51%
Barley Mar 2014 194.00 -5.00 -2.51%
American crops in cents US per bushel, soybean meal in $US per short ton and soybean oil in cents US per pound
Chicago
Soybeans Aug 2013 1350 -17.5 -1.28%
Soybeans Sep 2013 1249 -23 -1.81%
Soybeans Nov 2013 1203 -17 -1.39%
Soybeans Jan 2014 1208 -17.5 -1.43%
Soybeans Mar 2014 1207.75 -20 -1.63%
Soybeans May 2014 1207.25 -19.5 -1.59%
Soybean Meal Aug 2013 429.2 -9.7 -2.21%
Soybean Meal Sep 2013 405.2 -6.3 -1.53%
Soybean Meal Oct 2013 368.6 -7.4 -1.97%
Soybean Oil Aug 2013 42.11 -0.36 -0.85%
Soybean Oil Sep 2013 42.3 -0.28 -0.66%
Soybean Oil Oct 2013 42.43 -0.24 -0.56%
Corn Sep 2013 495.5 +6.25 +1.28%
Corn Dec 2013 477.5 +4.25 +0.90%
Corn Mar 2014 490.25 +4.25 +0.87%
Corn May 2014 498 +4 +0.81%
Corn Jul 2014 504.5 +4.25 +0.85%
Oats Sep 2013 338 +2 +0.60%
Oats Dec 2013 330.75 +3.5 +1.07%
Oats Mar 2014 334.75 +3 +0.90%
Oats May 2014 335 +3 +0.90%
Oats Jul 2014 340 +3 +0.89%
Wheat Sep 2013 655.25 +3.75 +0.58%
Wheat Dec 2013 667.75 +4.5 +0.68%
Wheat Mar 2014 678 +4.75 +0.71%
Wheat May 2014 684.25 +5 +0.74%
Wheat Jul 2014 681 +5.25 +0.78%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2013 737.25 +3 +0.41%
Spring Wheat Dec 2013 748.5 +2.75 +0.37%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 761.25 +3 +0.40%
Spring Wheat May 2014 769 +3.5 +0.46%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 775 +3.25 +0.42%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013 696.25 +6 +0.87%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 708.25 +7.5 +1.07%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 717.25 +7.75 +1.09%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 719.25 +6.5 +0.91%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 708.25 +5 +0.71%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped $1.47 at $103.08 US per barrel.
The Bank of Canada noon rate for the loonie was 97.15 cents US, down from 97.46 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0293 Cdn.
Plunging fertilizer company stocks, pressured by news of the break up of a Russian-Belarusian potash market cartel, knocked the Toronto stock market lower.
In early unofficial tallies —
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index was down 62.98 points, or 0.50 percent, at 12,606.06. Earlier it hit 12,555.82, its lowest since July 17.
The Dow Jones industrial average dipped 1.38 points, or 0.01 percent, to end at 15,520.59.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose just 0.63 of a point, or 0.04 percent, to finish at 1,685.96.
The Nasdaq Composite Indexrose17.33 points, or 0.48 percent, to close at 3,616.47.
