Canola futures slid down again on Wednesday and have now given back Monday’s gains.
There was little market moving news and U.S. crop futures also continued to trade in a narrow range, positioning ahead of the big U.S. Department of Agriculture report due Friday.
The canola market is stalled on expectations of a huge, record setting crop. Today, one of Canada’s major canola crushers, Bunge, pegged the crop here at 17.43 million tonnes. Most private estimates are higher than the official Statistics Canada September estimate of slightly less than 16 million tonnes. StatsCan will issues its final crop production report of the year on Dec. 4.
Read Also
U.S. grains: Soy drops on demand worries, corn firm as traders question lofty yield projections
U.S. soybean futures fell to a 1-1/2 week low on Tuesday as China continued to shun purchases from the United States and as forecasts for improved rains in the coming days reinforced expectations for a sizeable Midwest harvest.
A Bunge official made the forecast at Cereals North America, a major outlook conference happening today and tomorrow in Winnipeg. Speakers today included Don Basse president of AgResource Co., Yang Weilu of China’s CNGOIC, Karl Skold of Bunge, Alex Bos of Louis Dreyfus, Reuters columnist Gavin Maguire and speakers on the Black Sea and U.S. production outlooks and weather developments.
For ongoing coverage of the conference, see Ed White’s updates at Producer.com. He is also Tweeting @edwhitemarkets.
Soybeans edged higher in positioning ahead of Friday’s USDA report. Traders expect USDA will raise the soybean production estimate but exports have been strong, offsetting the bearish production news.
Palm oil was a little lower as traders took profits after the recent gains in that vegetable oil.
Corn was pressured lower by thoughts that USDA will significantly increase its estimate of the U.S. corn crop and ending stocks.
China has agreed to allow imports of Brazilian corn, providing a key market for surging production that has left a surplus of the grain in the country, local media reported. China has been lining up a bunch of corn suppliers in the last couple of years, including Argentina and Ukraine, to ensure it does not have to overly on the U.S.
Wheat was down on pressure from corn and on U.S. exports that have slowed after an aggressive start to the crop year.
China will import five million tonnes of wheat in 2013, according to a senior economist of the China National Grains and Oils Information Center at the Cereals North America conference. The centre made the same forecast a couple of weeks ago. It seems low given the strong buying it did following a harvest that was damaged by rain.
Bloomberg reported that SGS SA, a company that inspects, analyses and monitors raw materials, including food, said China’s corn crop declined 3.2 percent to 199 million tonnes due to flooding in some areas and drought in others.
The report, that SGS said was based on 302 interviews in the seven largest growing areas, is much lower that CNGOIC’ official forecast of an increase of 4.6 percent to 215 million tonnes.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2013 482.20 -3.00 -0.62%
Canola Jan 2014 490.70 -3.80 -0.77%
Canola Mar 2014 499.00 -3.80 -0.76%
Canola May 2014 505.20 -3.50 -0.69%
Canola Jul 2014 511.10 -3.40 -0.66%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013 220.00 -1.00 -0.45%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 231.00 -1.00 -0.43%
Milling Wheat May 2014 239.00 -1.00 -0.42%
Durum Wheat Dec 2013 247.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 253.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2014 257.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2013 152.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2014 154.00 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2014 155.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Nov 2013 1263 +3.75 +0.30%
Soybeans Jan 2014 1255 +4.75 +0.38%
Soybeans Mar 2014 1240.5 +4.25 +0.34%
Soybeans May 2014 1231.5 +4.25 +0.35%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1228.5 +4 +0.33%
Soybeans Aug 2014 1215.5 +4 +0.33%
Soybean Meal Dec 2013 396.8 +4 +1.02%
Soybean Meal Jan 2014 389.9 +3.2 +0.83%
Soybean Meal Mar 2014 382.4 +2.6 +0.68%
Soybean Oil Dec 2013 41.14 -0.01 -0.02%
Soybean Oil Jan 2014 41.44 -0.01 -0.02%
Soybean Oil Mar 2014 41.81 -0.01 -0.02%
Corn Dec 2013 421.25 -3.75 -0.88%
Corn Mar 2014 431.5 -4 -0.92%
Corn May 2014 439.5 -3.75 -0.85%
Corn Jul 2014 446.5 -3.75 -0.83%
Corn Sep 2014 452.75 -4 -0.88%
Oats Dec 2013 343.5 +3.5 +1.03%
Oats Mar 2014 316.75 +2.75 +0.88%
Oats May 2014 308.75 +1.75 +0.57%
Oats Jul 2014 305.75 unch 0.00%
Oats Sep 2014 306.5 unch 0.00%
Wheat Dec 2013 653.25 -2.75 -0.42%
Wheat Mar 2014 662.75 -4.5 -0.67%
Wheat May 2014 668.25 -4.75 -0.71%
Wheat Jul 2014 667.25 -3.5 -0.52%
Wheat Sep 2014 676.25 -3.25 -0.48%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2013 712.25 -1.5 -0.21%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 722.75 -1.75 -0.24%
Spring Wheat May 2014 729.75 -1.75 -0.24%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 734.5 -2 -0.27%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014 735.25 -2 -0.27%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 716.5 -5.75 -0.80%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 719.75 -6 -0.83%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 718.25 -7 -0.97%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 709 -4.75 -0.67%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014 716 -5 -0.69%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose $1.43 at $94.80 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 95.98 cents US, up from 95.71 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0419 Cdn.
The TSX composite was almost unchanged in late afternoon trade.
The Dow and S&P 500 were up a little while the Nasdaq was down after electric car maker Tesla Motors said its quarterly profit was less than expected.
Twitter will launch its much anticipated initial share offering tomorrow.
