Canola edges higher, basis narrows

For a second day, canola futures eked out the tiniest of gains, supported by a weaker loonie.

There was little in the way of new market moving news.

The market is still adjusting following last week’s USDA planting intentions and stocks reports, as well as rising forecasts for Brazil’s record large soybean crop.

Soybean futures have been slipping since last week’s USDA report. Corn fell on profit taking today, giving back the gains it made yesterday when it posted a three-week high.

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The profitability edge that soybeans had over corn in early March is eroding and that might affect the number of acres that are seeded to soybeans in the U.S.

While May canola has fallen below the psychologically important $500 a tonne level, it is staying above a technical support level at about $480.

Yesterday the forecast for Sunday-Monday was for as much as two inches of rain in agricultural parts of Manitoba but that has disappeared from the forecast. It has also turned drier for southern Alberta.

BASIS

The canola basis has narrowed.

On Monday the ICE Futures Canada’s reported best basis bid in the par region was about $14 under the May futures.

Today that has narrowed to $5 under May. That is likely a bid for self-delivery to a crushing plant.

The PDQInfo.ca website shows a -$8 a tonne basis against the May contract for May delivery in eastern Manitoba and -$8.31 for southern Alberta. Basis for May delivery is wider elsewhere on the Prairies with the widest amount at -$15.99 in northwest Saskatchewan.

LOONIE AND TRADE DEFICIT

The loonie fell on a poorer than expected showing for Canada’s trade deficit in February.

Following three consecutive months of surpluses, February’s C$972 million deficit compared with economists’ expectations for a surplus of $500 million, Reuters reported. It was the greatest fall in exports in nearly a year, fueled by a decrease in shipments of aircraft and canola, the report said.

Canola exports in February were down a little from the same month last year, but that was following an exceptionally strong January when canola exports were almost double the same month last year.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US74.61 cents, down from 74.74 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3403.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 79 cents to US$51.03 per barrel.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 84.67 points, or 0.54 percent, at 15,669.07.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 39.03 points, or 0.19 percent, to 20,689.24, the S&P 500 gained 1.32 points, or 0.06 percent, to 2,360.16 and the Nasdaq Composite added 3.93 points, or 0.07 percent, to 5,898.61.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola May 2017   485.50   +1.00   +0.21%

Canola Jul 2017   489.70   +0.80   +0.16%

Canola Nov 2017   478.90   +2.20   +0.46%

Canola Jan 2018   481.50   +1.40   +0.29%

Canola Mar 2018   484.60   +1.10   +0.23%

Milling Wheat May 2017   228.00   unch   0.00%

Milling Wheat Jul 2017   229.00   unch   0.00%

Milling Wheat Oct 2017   225.00   +1.00   +0.45%

Durum Wheat May 2017   273.00   +1.00   +0.37%

Durum Wheat Jul 2017   272.00   +1.00   +0.37%

Durum Wheat Oct 2017   263.00   +1.00   +0.38%

Barley May 2017   137.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Jul 2017   138.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Oct 2017   140.00   unch   0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans May 2017   937.75   -0.50   -0.05%

Soybeans Jul 2017   948.50   -0.75   -0.08%

Soybeans Aug 2017   951.25   -0.75   -0.08%

Soybeans Sep 2017   950.00   -0.50   -0.05%

Soybeans Nov 2017   949.00   -1.25   -0.13%

Soybeans Jan 2018   955.00   -1.25   -0.13%

Soybean Meal May 2017   308.10   +0.50   +0.16%

Soybean Meal Jul 2017   311.50   +0.50   +0.16%

Soybean Meal Aug 2017   312.20   +0.60   +0.19%

Soybean Oil May 2017   31.43   +0.01   +0.03%

Soybean Oil Jul 2017   31.71   unch   0.00%

Soybean Oil Aug 2017   31.81   unch   0.00%

Corn May 2017   363.00   -4.75   -1.29%

Corn Jul 2017   370.75   -4.50   -1.20%

Corn Sep 2017   378.25   -4.50   -1.18%

Corn Dec 2017   387.75   -4.25   -1.08%

Corn Mar 2018   397.00   -4.25   -1.06%

Oats May 2017   222.75   -2.75   -1.22%

Oats Jul 2017   219.25   -3.25   -1.46%

Oats Sep 2017   217.75   -2.25   -1.02%

Oats Dec 2017   218.75   -2.00   -0.91%

Oats Mar 2018   225.50   -2.00   -0.88%

Wheat May 2017   427.00   -0.75   -0.18%

Wheat Jul 2017   440.00   -0.25   -0.06%

Wheat Sep 2017   454.50   unch   0.00%

Wheat Dec 2017   475.00   +0.50   +0.11%

Wheat Mar 2018   491.00   +1.75   +0.36%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat May 2017   527.25   -3.75   -0.71%

Spring Wheat Jul 2017   535.25   -3.25   -0.60%

Spring Wheat Sep 2017   543.50   -3.00   -0.55%

Spring Wheat Dec 2017   553.50   -2.75 -0.49%

Spring Wheat Mar 2018   563.75   -2.25   -0.40%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat May 2017   421.75   +2.75   +0.66%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017   434.50   +2.25   +0.52%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017   450.25   +2.00   +0.45%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017   474.00   +2.25   +0.48%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2018   491.50   +3.25   +0.67%

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)

Live Cattle (P) Apr 2017   118.22   -1.21   -1.01%

Live Cattle (P) Jun 2017   109.30   -1.40   -1.26%

Live Cattle (P) Aug 2017   105.52   -1.28   -1.20%

Feeder Cattle (P) Apr 2017   131.02   -2.05   -1.54%

Feeder Cattle (P) May 2017   130.30   -1.50   -1.14%

Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2017   132.12   -1.23   -0.92%

Lean Hogs (P) Apr 2017   63.68   -1.12   -1.73%

Lean Hogs (P) May 2017   68.18   -1.22   -1.76%

Lean Hogs (P) Jun 2017   71.98   -0.67   -0.92%

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