Soybean and soy oil futures fell about one percent Thursday helping to pressure canola lower as well.
The most-traded contract, May, ran into technical weakness, falling below its 50- and 100-day moving averages.
May closed at $517.20 per tonne, down $6.30.
New crop November closed down $7.40 at $496.30. It was the first time it closed below $500 since Feb. 2.
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The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its economists’ forecasts for spring U.S. corn and soybean acreage today and the numbers were within the range of expectations and so should not have been a market driver.
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Of greater possible impact were increasingly favourable forecasts for South American soy and corn production.
AgroConsult today pegged soybean production in Brazil at 107.8 million tonnes and Argentina at 54 million.
Both numbers are higher than the current USDA forecasts for the countries.
Social media postings are popping up about rain stalling Brazil’s harvest, but so far the trade sees them as isolated cases and that overall yields are good and country-wide production is expected to reach a record.
SEEDING FORECAST
The USDA today forecast American soybean area at 88 million acres, up 4.6 million from last year and corn at 90 million, down four million from last year.
A Reuters poll of analysts estimated that soybean plantings would rise to 87.6 million acres and corn seedings would drop to 91 million acres.
A Bloomberg poll had pegged corn at 90.8 million and soybeans at 88.3 million.
The first survey of American farmers about seeding plans comes out March 31.
WHEAT
Chicago wheat futures slipped slightly today but Minneapolis and Kansas were almost unchanged.
The USDA forecast total wheat area at 46 million acres, down 8.3 percent.
We already know that winter wheat area is 32.38 million acres, down 10.4 percent.
That implies that spring wheat and durum area will be 13.62 million acres, down only 3.2 percent. The USDA did not give a break down between spring and durum wheat.
Part of the reason for the fairly modest spring wheat reduction is likely that the price of higher protein, quality spring wheat has held up better than winter wheat prices. Also, wheat prices were particularly depressed early last fall when American farmers were seeding winter wheat. Wheat prices have recovered somewhat from the lows last fall.
OTHER CROPS
The USDA expects cotton acreage will rise by about 14 percent to 11.5 million acres and “other feedgrains” will fall seven percent to 11.7 million acres.
All this should be taken as an early forecast. There are still weeks of weather and markets until American farmers start to seed.
The USDA thinks that because farm income is down U.S. farmers will seed less land overall.
It sees the overall area seeded to the eight major crops at 249.8 million acres, down 1.4 percent or 3.6 million less than last year.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 86 cents to US$54.45 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US76.28 cents, up from 75.83 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3114.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index unofficially closed down 49.02 points, or 0.31 percent, at 15,781.20.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 34.24 points, or 0.16 percent, to 20,809.84, the S&P 500 gained 0.96 points, or 0.04 percent, to 2,363.78 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 25.12 points, or 0.43 percent, to 5,835.51.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Mar 17 513.20 -5.10 -0.98%
Canola May 17 517.20 -6.30 -1.20%
Canola Jul 17 520.30 -6.60 -1.25%
Canola Nov 17 496.30 -7.40 -1.47%
Canola Jan 18 501.30 -7.20 -1.42%
Milling Wheat Mar 17 231.00 +2.00 +0.87%
Milling Wheat May 17 236.00 +2.00 +0.85%
Milling Wheat Jul 17 238.00 +3.00 +1.27%
Durum Wheat Mar 17 281.00 unch unch
Durum Wheat May 17 283.00 unch unch
Durum Wheat Jul 17 282.00 unch unch
Barley Mar 17 135.00 unch unch
Barley May 17 137.00 unch unch
Barley Jul 17 138.00 unch unch
American crop futures in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Mar 2017 1011.50 -11.25 -1.10%
Soybeans May 2017 1022.50 -11.00 -1.06%
Soybeans Jul 2017 1031.50 -11.50 -1.10%
Soybeans Aug 2017 1031.25 -11.00 -1.06%
Soybeans Sep 2017 1016.75 -10.00 -0.97%
Soybeans Nov 2017 1004.50 -9.00 -0.89%
Soybean Meal Mar 2017 330.80 -4.20 -1.25%
Soybean Meal May 2017 335.20 -4.30 -1.27%
Soybean Meal Jul 2017 338.40 -4.50 -1.31%
Soybean Oil Mar 2017 32.32 -0.40 -1.22%
Soybean Oil May 2017 32.59 -0.41 -1.24%
Soybean Oil Jul 2017 32.87 -0.40 -1.20%
Corn Mar 2017 365.50 -5.50 -1.48%
Corn May 2017 372.50 -5.75 -1.52%
Corn Jul 2017 379.75 -5.75 -1.49%
Corn Sep 2017 385.75 -5.50 -1.41%
Corn Dec 2017 391.75 -5.50 -1.38%
Oats Mar 2017 253.25 +0.25 +0.10%
Oats May 2017 252.75 unch 0.00%
Oats Jul 2017 248.50 +0.25 +0.10%
Oats Sep 2017 238.25 -2.75 -1.14%
Oats Dec 2017 238.50 -0.25 -0.10%
Wheat Mar 2017 438.00 -3.25 -0.74%
Wheat May 2017 453.50 -2.50 -0.55%
Wheat Jul 2017 467.00 -2.75 -0.59%
Wheat Sep 2017 482.00 -2.50 -0.52%
Wheat Dec 2017 499.75 -2.25 -0.45%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Mar 2017 544.00 +1.25 +0.23%
Spring Wheat May 2017 553.25 +1.00 +0.18%
Spring Wheat Jul 2017 559.50 +1.25 +0.22%
Spring Wheat Sep 2017 565.50 +1.00 +0.18%
Spring Wheat Dec 2017 576.00 +1.00 +0.17%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017 457.75 unch 0.00%
Hard Red Wheat May 2017 471.50 +0.25 +0.05%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 483.00 unch 0.00%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 497.25 unch 0.00%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017 517.00 +0.50 +0.10%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)
Live Cattle (P) Feb 2017 123.08 +1.78 +1.47%
Live Cattle (P) Apr 2017 116.52 +0.44 +0.38%
Live Cattle (P) Jun 2017 106.78 +0.36 +0.34%
Feeder Cattle (P) Mar 2017 125.15 +0.05 +0.04%
Feeder Cattle (P) Apr 2017 125.50 -0.03 -0.02%
Feeder Cattle (P) May 2017 124.65 unch 0.00%
Lean Hogs (P) Apr 2017 66.57 -1.18 -1.74%
Lean Hogs (P) May 2017 72.88 -0.52 -0.71%
Lean Hogs (P) Jun 2017 76.62 -0.63 -0.82%
