Canola dips as loonie rises; exports improve

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Published: September 28, 2017

It was another day of modest changes in crop futures prices on Thursday, with canola closing slightly lower.

Harvest weather is great in most of Western Canada and the U.S. Midwest.

However the Prairies expect to see a weather change on Sunday and early next week with cooler temperatures and showers.

As of Sept. 25 Saskatchewan’s harvest was 78 percent complete, up only three percentage points from the week due to the recent wet weather. Another 15 percent was in swath or ready to straight cut, said the weekly provincial agriculture department crop report.

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Canola is 68 percent harvested. Spring wheat is 77 percent.

The Canadian dollar regained some of the ground it lost on Wednesday. It fell yesterday on comments from the head of the Bank of Canada. Stephen Poloz said that another interest rate increase was not guaranteed but was dependant on economic data.

Traders were adjusting position ahead of Friday’s USDA quarterly stocks report and the annual small grains report, which could adjust wheat production estimates to reflect acres not harvested because of drought.

EXPORTS RISE

Shipments out of Canada jumped last week by 200,000 to 837,300 tonnes, according to the Canadian Grain Commission.

Canola exports were the biggest of the crop year so far at 280,700 tonnes, up from 115,500 the week before. Canola exports for the first eight weeks are now only four percent behind last year’s pace.

Wheat exports rose to 306,500 tonnes, up from 242,100 tonnes.

Wheat exports in the first eight weeks are well ahead of last year at 2.42 million tonnes, up from 1.85 million last year.

The Quorum Corp. grain monitor report said that there were 12 ships cleared from Vancouver in the last week, up from 10 the week before. There were 16 ships in the line up, up from 14 the week before.

Incoming ships to Vancouver totaled 14, the same as the week before.

At Prince Rupert, one ship was cleared, the same as the week before. Five ships were in the line up, an increase from one the week before.

Incoming ships to Prince Rupert totaled only one, down from five the week before.

US EXPORT SALES

The USDA reported export sales of U.S. corn in the latest week at 320,200 tonnes, below a range of trade expectations for 500,000 to 800,000 tonnes.

Export sales of U.S. soybeans were 2,982,700 tonnes for the 2017-18 marketing year, topping a range of trade expectations for 1.8 million to 2.2 million tonnes.

Export sales of U.S. wheat were 435,600 tonnes, in line with trade expectations for 250,000 to 450,000 tonnes.

SOY OIL

Soy oil has been under pressure this week on concerns that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency might lower the mandated use of veg oil based biodiesel.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 58 cents at US$51.56 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US80.42 cents, up from 80.17 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2435.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index finished 8.59 points, or 0.06 percent higher, to 15,618.25, and has rallied some 2.7 percent this month.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 40.49 points, or 0.18 percent, to 22,381.2, the S&P 500 gained 3.02 points, or 0.12 percent, to 2,510.06 and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.19 points, to 6,453.45.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 17   490.80s   -1.90   -0.39%

Canola Jan 18   497.30s   -1.90   -0.38%

Canola Mar 18   501.90s   -1.90   -0.38%

Canola May 18   504.10s   -1.90   -0.38%

Canola Jul 18   504.80s   -2.00   -0.39%

 

Milling Wheat Oct 17   236.00s   unch   unch

Milling Wheat Dec 17   238.00s   unch   unch

Milling Wheat Mar 18   244.00s   unch   unch

 

Durum Wheat Oct 17   280.00s   +1.00   +0.36%

Durum Wheat Dec 17   284.00s   +1.00   +0.35%

Durum Wheat Mar 18   287.00s   +1.00   +0.35%

 

Barley Oct 17   145.00s   unch   unch

Barley Dec 17   148.00s   unch   unch

Barley Mar 18   151.00s   unch   unch

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans Nov 17   959-4s   -6-0   -0.62%

Soybeans Jan 18   970-2s   -6-0   -0.61%

Soybeans Mar 18   979-4s   -6-0   -0.61%

Soybeans May 18   988-0s   -5-6   -0.58%

Soybeans Jul 18   995-2s   -5-6   -0.57%

 

Soybean Meal Oct 17   306.8s   -2.0   -0.65%

Soybean Meal Dec 17   311.5s   -1.8   -0.57%

Soybean Meal Jan 18   313.6s   -1.9   -0.60%

 

Soybean Oil Oct 17   32.59s   -0.43 -1.30%

Soybean Oil Dec 17   32.82s   -0.40   -1.20%

Soybean Oil Jan 18   33.00s   -0.39   -1.17%

 

Corn Dec 17   352-4s   -1-4   -0.42%

Corn Mar 18   365-2s   -1-4   -0.41%

Corn May 18   373-6s   -2-0   -0.53%

Corn Jul 18   381-2s   -2-0   -0.52%

Corn Sep 18   388-0s   -2-0   -0.51%

 

Oats Dec 17   249-4s   +1-4   +0.60%

Oats Mar 18   253-4s   +1-2   +0.50%

Oats May 18   252-4s   +1-2   +0.50%

Oats Jul 18   251-0s   +1-6   +0.70%

Oats Sep 18   251-0s   +1-6   +0.70%

 

Wheat Dec 17   455-0s   -6-4   -1.41%

Wheat Mar 18   474-2s   -6-4   -1.35%

Wheat May 18   487-2s   -6-2   -1.27%

Wheat Jul 18   498-6s   -5-6   -1.14%

Wheat Sep 18   513-2s   -5-4   -1.06%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 17   645-0s   -4-6   -0.73%

Spring Wheat Mar 18   656-6s   -5-2   -0.79%

Spring Wheat May 18   659-6s   -5-4   -0.83%

Spring Wheat Jul 18   658-2s   -4-6   -0.72%

Spring Wheat Sep 18   642-4s   -4-6   -0.73%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 17   453-0s   -6-0   -1.31%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 18   470-6s   -6-2   -1.31%

Hard Red Wheat May 18   484-2s   -6-0   -1.22%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 18   501-0s   -5-6   -1.13%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 18   519-0s   -6-0   -1.14%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Oct 17   108.975s   +0.400   +0.37%

Live Cattle Dec 17   115.050s   +0.150   +0.13%

Live Cattle Feb 18   118.550s   +0.050   +0.04%

 

Feeder Cattle Sep 17   152.775s   +0.375   +0.25%

Feeder Cattle Oct 17   152.950s   +0.250   +0.16%

Feeder Cattle Nov 17   154.975s   +0.450   +0.29%

 

Lean Hogs Oct 17   55.550s   +0.150   +0.27%

Lean Hogs Dec 17   58.275s   -1.375   -2.31%

Lean Hogs Feb 18   63.350s   -1.050   -1.63%

 

 

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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