Canola dips 90 cents on week

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Published: January 6, 2012

Crop markets were supported by weather forecasts that scaled back the outlook for moisture in Argentina early next week.

But crop futures closed mostly down because the U.S. dollar rose on a strong weekly employment report.

Canola’s fall was minor with a weaker loonie cushioning the drop but increased elevator hedge selling still pushed the nearby contracts into negative territory.

Most traded March closed at  $523.40 per tonne, down 20 cents. January closed at  $516.40, down $1.60.

However new crop November edged 40 cents higher to close at $511.70.

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Over the week, the March contract fell 90 cents per tonne or 0.17 percent. March soybeans fell 0.9 percent, corn was about flat and Minneapolis wheat fell 5.7 percent.

• The unemployment rate fell in December in the U.S., but rose in Canada. Signs that the U.S. economy is slowly reviving are pushing the greenback higher against most currencies.

The U.S. economy added 200,000 jobs in December, topping forecasts, and the jobless rate fell to 8.5 percent, a near three-year low.

Canadian employment rose by 17,500 in December but the jobs were mostly part time. The rise was not enough to offset the previous two months of declines.

The Canadian unemployment rate rose to 7.5 percent from November’s 7.4 percent.

• Some forecasts say Argentina will get less rain on Monday and Tuesday than forecast yesterday.

• Members of the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association kept up a torrid pace of canola crushing. Members crushed 141,172 tonnes of canola in the week ending Jan. 4, up 1.7 percent over the previous week. That represents 96 percent of capacity.

• U.S. analysts and traders surveyed in advance of next Thursday’s USDA stocks and production reports think corn is being used at a faster rate than what USDA predicted in December and are forecasting that USDA will reduce its year end U.S. corn stocks estimate.

• A survey for Farm Futures Magazine released Wednesday indicates that while U.S. farmers intend to increase corn acreage in 2012, they might not push seeded area up as much as earlier expected.

The survey of 1,350 farmers estimates corn acreage at 93.6 million, up 1.8 percent over last year, but down 300,000 from its first survey in August. The survey put soybean acres slightly lower than 2011 at 74.9 million, 2 million less than the August estimate.

A bit of a surprise is the expectation that wheat area will rise nine percent from last year despite lower prices. The expectation is that drier weather in the northern plains will allow a return to normal seeding.

 

Winnipeg (per tonne)

Canola Jan 12 $516.40, down $1.60 (-0.31%)

Canola Mar 12 $523.40, down $0.20 (-0.04%)

Canola May 12 $528.80, up $0.40 (+0.08%)

Canola Nov 12 $511.70, up $0.40 (+0.08%)

The previous trading day’s best basis was $12 per tonne off the March contract, said the ICE Futures Canada exchange in Winnipeg.

The January contract’s 14-day Relative Strength Index was 53.

Western Barley Mar 12 $217.00, unchanged

Chicago (per bushel)

Soybeans Jan 12 $11.895, down 11.75 cents (-0.98%)

Soybeans Mar 12 $11.965, down 12.5 (-1.03%)

Soybeans Nov 12 $11.9125, down 12.75 (-1.06%)

Corn Mar 12 $6.435, unchanged

Corn Dec 12 $5.7525, down 4.25 (-0.73%)

Oats Mar 12 $2.8725, down 2.75 (-0.95%)

Oats May 12 $2.915, down 3.25 (-1.10%)

Minneapolis (per bushel)

Spring Wheat Mar 12 $8.01, down 17.5 cents (-2.14%)

Spring Wheat May 12 $7.9275, down 16.75 (-2.07%)

Spring Wheat Dec 12 $7.7875, down 0.5 (-0.06%)

 

Nearby light crude oil in New York fell 25 cents to settle at $101.56 a barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 97.73 cents US, down from 98.07 the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0232 Cdn.

The Toronto Stock Exchange composite unofficially closed down 48.76 points, or 0.40 percent, at 12.188.64.

The Standard and Poor’s 500 was down 3.16 points, or 0.25 percent, at 1,277.90.

For the week, the TSX was up almost two percent, the Dow rose 1.2 percent, the S&P 500 was up 1.6 percent and the Nasdaq climbed 2.7 percent.

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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