A new model-based production estimate from Statistics Canada shows the canola crop at 18.3 million tonnes compared to the farmer survey-based forecast released earlier this summer of 17 million tonnes.
The new model forecast is based on satellite and agroclimatic data, not farmer surveys.
In 2015 canola production was 18.38 million tonnes. Analysts generally believed the 17 million tonnes forecast was too low and a number at around 18 million is not unexpected.
The model put spring wheat production at 20.6 million tonnes versus the summer survey forecast of 20.25 million.
In 2015 spring production was 19.96 million tonnes.
The model puts durum production at 7.3 million tonnes, up from the summer survey forecast of 6.81 million tonnes and 2015’s 5.39 million.
The model puts the barley crop at 8.4 million tonnes, down from the summer survey of 8.7 million tonnes. The 2015 crop was 8.23 million tonnes.
Oats in the model is 2.9 million tonnes, similar to the summer survey at three million tonnes. In 2015 the oats crop was 3.43 million.
