Canola closes strong on frost worries, rising soy oil

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Published: May 29, 2015

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Canola jumped higher on Friday, supported by concerns about frost damage and rising soy oil values.
Much of western and northern Saskatchewan’s grain belt saw temperatures drop to -2 to -3C for a short period Friday morning and Manitoba could see a degree or two of frost Saturday morning.
Canola planting is wrapping up across the Prairies but farmers in large parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan are concerned about dry soil.
Southern Alberta could get rain Monday and Tuesday next week. Lesser amounts are possible in southwestern Saskatchewan.

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May 30-June 4 Forecast
May 30-June 4 Forecast

July canola rose $6.20 to $472.80 per tonne.
November canola climbed $8 to $465.60 per tonne
On the week, July rose $9.60 or two percent and November climbed $10.70 or 2.4 percent.
Soy oil closed up 3.74 percent Friday, helping to lift canola.
Soy oil was supported by new biofuel targets that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency set today which should stimulate biodiesel demand.
That support for soy oil triggering investors to unwind long soymeal-short soy oil spreads.
July soy oil rose 5.1 percent on the week.
Soybeans rose today on stronger than expected weekly U.S. export sales.
For the week, July soybeans rose 1.1 percent.
July spring wheat futures fell almost three percent today, Kansas hard red winter wheat was down 2.25 percent and Chicago soft wheat was down 2.4 percent.

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On the week, wheat was down eight to nine percent.
Wheat is under pressure from ample world supplies, weak prospects for U.S. exports and the expected beginning of the U.S. winter wheat harvest next week when drier weather is expected to allow farmers to get into their fields.
It will be a difficult harvest for those farmers in the southern Plains who had as much as 10 inches of rain in the last week or so. Lodging and sprouting will be problems and traders will be watching Monday’s USDA crop condition report to changes. This week’s report showed surprisingly little change.
It is getting dry in areas east of the Black Sea and Russian farmers are hoping for rain this weekend.
Russia government announced an new export control policy to kick in as the new crop year starts July 1.
The export tax replaces a tariff it applied from February to mid-May, in a move to stop exports surging if the rouble drops steeply.
The news did not spark a price reaction because Russian export rates are currently well below the threshold that would trigger a significant duty, but traders said it could have an impact later in the 2015-16 season if the rouble again comes under pressure, Reuters reported.
The new EPA biofuel rules are not expected to add to corn demand.
Corn fell about 2.4 percent for the week, its the second straight weekly decline. Corn seeding in the U.S. is wrapping up and conditions are mostly good.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up $2.62 to US$60.30 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US80.22 cents, up from 80.15 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2465.
Plunging oil prices and a weak U.S. economy caused Canada’s gross domestic product to shrink at an annualized rate of 0.6 percent in the first quarter of the year, the most in nearly six years.
Growth in March was also slower than expected.
U.S. government data showed its economy also contracted in the first quarter of the year.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down 92.91 points, or 0.62 percent, at 15,014.09.
On the week, the TSX was down 1.2 percent.
The Dow Jones industrial average today fell 115.24 points, or 0.64 percent, to 18,010.88, the S&P 500 lost 13.4 points, or 0.63 percent, to 2,107.39 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 27.95 points, or 0.55 percent, to 5,070.03.
In May, the Dow gained 0.96 percent, the S&P added 1.05 percent and the Nasdaq rose 2.60 percent.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Jul 2015 472.80 +6.20 +1.33%
Canola Nov 2015 465.60 +8.00 +1.75%
Canola Jan 2016 464.40 +7.30 +1.60%
Canola Mar 2016 463.40 +7.30 +1.60%
Canola May 2016 462.40 +7.30 +1.60%

Milling Wheat Jul 2015 205.00 -6.00 -2.84%
Milling Wheat Oct 2015 207.00 -6.00 -2.82%
Milling Wheat Dec 2015 207.00 -6.00 -2.82%

Durum Wheat Jul 2015 298.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2015 298.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2015 303.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2015 191.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2015 177.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2015 182.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans Jul 2015 934 +8 +0.86%
Soybeans Aug 2015 919.25 +5 +0.55%
Soybeans Sep 2015 907.75 +4.5 +0.50%
Soybeans Nov 2015 905.75 +3.75 +0.42%
Soybeans Jan 2016 912.75 +3.75 +0.41%
Soybeans Mar 2016 916.5 +3.25 +0.36%

Soybean Meal Jul 2015 305.7 +0.9 +0.30%
Soybean Meal Aug 2015 298.4 -0.6 -0.20%
Soybean Meal Sep 2015 295 -0.8 -0.27%

Soybean Oil Jul 2015 33.33 +1.27 +3.96%
Soybean Oil Aug 2015 33.35 +1.23 +3.83%
Soybean Oil Sep 2015 33.33 +1.18 +3.67%

Corn Jul 2015 351.5 -2 -0.57%
Corn Sep 2015 357.25 -2.25 -0.63%
Corn Dec 2015 368 -2 -0.54%
Corn Mar 2016 378.5 -2 -0.53%
Corn May 2016 385.5 -2 -0.52%

Oats Jul 2015 234 -6 -2.50%
Oats Sep 2015 241.75 -5.75 -2.32%
Oats Dec 2015 249.75 -4 -1.58%
Oats Mar 2016 255.75 -4 -1.54%
Oats May 2016 262.5 -4 -1.50%

Wheat Jul 2015 477 -11.75 -2.40%

Wheat Sep 2015 482.25 -12.25 -2.48%
Wheat Dec 2015 497 -12.5 -2.45%
Wheat Mar 2016 511.5 -13 -2.48%
Wheat May 2016 520.5 -13.25 -2.48%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Jul 2015 530.75 -16.25 -2.97%
Spring Wheat Sep 2015 541.5 -16.25 -2.91%
Spring Wheat Dec 2015 555.5 -15.25 -2.67%
Spring Wheat Mar 2016 569.5 -14.25 -2.44%
Spring Wheat May 2016 578.75 -14 -2.36%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 498.75 -11.5 -2.25%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 507.75 -12.25 -2.36%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015 524.75 -12.5 -2.33%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 538 -12.5 -2.27%
Hard Red Wheat May 2016 546.75 -11.5 -2.06%

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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