The see-saw crop markets sawed down Monday, giving up substantial ground in all the main futures contracts.
Corn futures fell almost four percent and canola was down about two percent.
But some traders saw little behind the Monday action.
“Nothing really has changed here,” said Ken Ball of P.I. Financial in Winnipeg.
“The weather got slightly better in some reports.”
Markets have risen recently on worries about the hot, dry weather in the United States Midwest, but many traders discounted those concerns, seeing them as speculation rather than actually threatening supply and demand assumptions.
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That was how Ball described the Monday price weakness after weekend weather reports showed little reason for worry.
Canola sold off more than soybeans, showing the continuing volatility of the canola-soybean spread, and also demonstrating the U.S. dollar weakness.
Tight soybean supply in the U.S. and a good Canadian canola crop so far, have combined with weak world soy oil prices to make canola weaker than it normally is within the oilseed complex.
But Monday was also a day in which traders closed out canola-soybean spreads.
“It’s just an oscillation,” said Ball.
The relative cheapness of canola should begin to bring better relative prices at some point this summer, said Ball.
However, unless a significant weather problem hurts U.S. soybeans, it is hard to justify going beyond today’s prices.
“We’ve got the early season highs for oilseeds,” said Ball.
The market is closely following each change in the weather forecast.
“Most (weather) models this morning are calling for widespread rains across the Corn Belt in the next three to five days. What is more important is that the rains are forecast for the driest regions,” said a research note from Karl Setzer, analyst with the Iowa-based MaxYield Cooperative, Reuters reported.
After the CBOT close, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly crop progress report rated 75 percent of the corn crop in good to excellent condition, unchanged from the previous week. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected a decline after a hot week in the Midwest.
The USDA rated 73 percent of U.S. soybeans as good to excellent, down from 74 percent a week earlier and in line with trade expectations.
Commodity funds hold large net long positions in CBOT corn and soybeans, leaving those markets vulnerable to long liquidation, Reuters reported.
The supplement to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly Commitment of Traders report showed non-commercial traders as of June 14 held the biggest net long positions in CBOT corn and soy futures since August 2012.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up $1.38 to US$49.37 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US78.08 cents, up from 77.65 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2807.
Contact ed.white@producer.com
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jul 2016 498.90 -11.60 -2.27%
Canola Nov 2016 507.40 -10.70 -2.07%
Canola Jan 2017 512.70 -10.40 -1.99%
Canola Mar 2017 515.00 -9.70 -1.85%
Canola May 2017 516.80 -9.70 -1.84%
Milling Wheat Jul 2016 238.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2016 301.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2016 297.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2016 171.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2016 171.50 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Jul 2016 1143.50 -16.00 -1.38%
Soybeans Aug 2016 1145.25 -14.75 -1.27%
Soybeans Sep 2016 1136.25 -14.75 -1.28%
Soybeans Nov 2016 1132.75 -14.50 -1.26%
Soybeans Jan 2017 1130.75 -14.25 -1.24%
Soybeans Mar 2017 1099.50 -8.75 -0.79%
Soybean Meal Jul 2016 402.70 -6.10 -1.49%
Soybean Meal Aug 2016 402.10 -5.60 -1.37%
Soybean Meal Sep 2016 401.60 -5.50 -1.35%
Soybean Oil Jul 2016 31.64 -0.26 -0.82%
Soybean Oil Aug 2016 31.78 -0.24 -0.75%
Soybean Oil Sep 2016 31.91 -0.24 -0.75%
Corn Jul 2016 421.25 -16.50 -3.77%
Corn Sep 2016 426.75 -16.25 -3.67%
Corn Dec 2016 433.75 -15.00 -3.34%
Corn Mar 2017 439.50 -12.75 -2.82%
Corn May 2017 442.50 -11.00 -2.43%
Oats Jul 2016 208.25 -0.75 -0.36%
Oats Dec 2016 222.25 -3.00 -1.33%
Oats Mar 2017 234.50 -2.00 -0.85%
Oats May 2017 234.50 -2.50 -1.05%
Wheat Jul 2016 473.00 -7.75 -1.61%
Wheat Sep 2016 487.50 -7.50 -1.52%
Wheat Dec 2016 507.50 -6.00 -1.17%
Wheat Mar 2017 527.25 -4.75 -0.89%
Wheat May 2017 539.25 -3.75 -0.69%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Jul 2016 533.75 -3.25 -0.61%
Spring Wheat Sep 2016 543.75 -2.75 -0.50%
Spring Wheat Dec 2016 557.00 -5.00 -0.89%
Spring Wheat Mar 2017 570.50 -4.75 -0.83%
Spring Wheat May 2017 578.25 -1.00 -0.17%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016 451.25 -10.00 -2.17%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016 469.00 -10.25 -2.14%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016 494.25 -8.25 -1.64%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017 510.75 -9.00 -1.73%
Hard Red Wheat May 2017 521.50 -8.75 -1.65%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound
Live Cattle (P) Jun 2016 114.50 -2.05 -1.76%
Live Cattle (P) Aug 2016 110.25 -2.25 -2.00%
Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2016 136.68 -0.50 -0.36%
Feeder Cattle (P) Sep 2016 135.85 -0.42 -0.31%
Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 2016 134.20 -0.90 -0.67%
Lean Hogs (P) Jul 2016 86.42 +0.27 +0.31%
Lean Hogs (P) Aug 2016 88.95 -0.27 -0.30%
Lean Hogs (P) Oct 2016 74.45 +0.10 +0.13%
