Canola closes lower despite stronger soy oil

Canola futures traded up and down compared to the Friday close, but ended slightly lower on the first trading day after Thanksgiving as early support from soy oil waned.

Early canola gains were associated with rising soy oil, which was supported by National Oilseed Processor Association data that showed U.S. soyoil stocks fell more than expected to 1.372 billion pounds, versus 1.669 billion lb. in August. Analysts had forecast stocks at 1.473 billion lb.

Canola is having a hard time escaping the downward pressure coming from expectations that a record large harvest is coming to an end.

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On the other hand, there was support from fairly solid domestic and export canola demand. After a slow start to the crop year because of extremely tight canola supplied before harvest, Canada’s oilseed crushers have picked up the pace and are operating at close to 90 percent capacity.

Wheat futures slipped. Drier weather has moved into Ukraine and Russia allowing a resumption of seeding, which had been delayed because of excess rain. The delay could lead to reduced seeded acreage and the potential for increased winter kill, but the situation is likely not as bad as was forecast a couple of weeks ago.

On the other hand, Reuters reported that Chinese authorities are drawing attention to excessively dry weather that is hurting the winter wheat seeding season. In areas not irrigated farmers have slowed seeding, worried that there is not enough moisture to germinate the crop.

Will we see the government urging people with garden hoses and soldiers with buckets of water out into the fields again like we did a few years ago during a dry period late in winter?

Corn futures rose on bargain buying and rumours that China was buying U.S. corn.

Despite the U.S. government partial shut down, some agricultural reports are available, namely export inspections.

Wheat exports of 25.287 million bushels in the latest week were below expectations.

A total of 21.733 million bu. of U.S. corn were inspected for export in the week ended Oct. 10, below estimates for 23 million-31 million.

Prices in the lightly traded Chicago oats futures contract jumped higher today. There is a strong inversion in the oats market with December 20 cents a bushel higher than the March. Perhaps it’s a signal that users want oats now but are having trouble getting supply with all the congestion in handling/transport system.

The political impasse in Washington over the debt limit and budget cast a dark cloud of uncertainty over all markets.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2013 477.40 -2.70 -0.56%

Canola Jan 2014 487.20 -3.10 -0.63%

Canola Mar 2014 494.70 -3.10 -0.62%

Canola May 2014 501.10 -3.40 -0.67%

Canola Jul 2014 506.70 -3.60 -0.71%

Milling Wheat Dec 2013 237.00 -4.00 -1.66%

Milling Wheat Mar 2014 243.00 -2.00 -0.82%

Milling Wheat May 2014 244.00 -2.00 -0.81%

Durum Wheat Dec 2013 247.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Mar 2014 253.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2014 257.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Dec 2013 152.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Mar 2014 154.00 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2014 155.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Nov 2013 1267 -6 -0.47%

Soybeans Jan 2014 1266 -5.75 -0.45%

Soybeans Mar 2014 1255.75 -3.25 -0.26%

Soybeans May 2014 1244 -1.25 -0.10%

Soybeans Jul 2014 1240.5 -1.5 -0.12%

Soybeans Aug 2014 1229.75 -0.75 -0.06%

Soybean Meal Dec 2013 402.4 -5 -1.23%

Soybean Meal Jan 2014 399.3 -4.6 -1.14%

Soybean Meal Mar 2014 392.7 -3.5 -0.88%

Soybean Oil Dec 2013 40.66 +0.27 +0.67%

Soybean Oil Jan 2014 40.96 +0.26 +0.64%

Soybean Oil Mar 2014 41.35 +0.25 +0.61%

Corn Dec 2013 443.5 +6.5 +1.49%

Corn Mar 2014 455.75 +6 +1.33%

Corn May 2014 464.25 +6 +1.31%

Corn Jul 2014 471.75 +6.5 +1.40%

Corn Sep 2014 477.5 +6.25 +1.33%

Oats Dec 2013 331 +14 +4.42%

Oats Mar 2014 311 +6 +1.97%

Oats May 2014 303 -1.25 -0.41%

Oats Jul 2014 297 -1 -0.34%

Oats Sep 2014 296 -2.5 -0.84%

Wheat Dec 2013 685.75 -6.75 -0.97%

Wheat Mar 2014 695.5 -6.25 -0.89%

Wheat May 2014 699.5 -5.25 -0.74%

Wheat Jul 2014 688.75 -5.25 -0.76%

Wheat Sep 2014 694.5 -5 -0.71%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 2013 750.25 -6.25 -0.83%

Spring Wheat Mar 2014 759.25 -6 -0.78%

Spring Wheat May 2014 763.25 -4.5 -0.59%

Spring Wheat Jul 2014 763 -4.75 -0.62%

Spring Wheat Sep 2014 762.75 -3.75 -0.49%

Kansas City

KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 756.25 -5.25 -0.69%

KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 753.75 -5.25 -0.69%

KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 751.5 -4.5 -0.60%

KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 734.75 -4.5 -0.61%

KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014 741.75 -5 -0.67%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped $1.20 at $101.21 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 96.42 cents US, up from 96.29 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0371 Cdn.

Many stock traders stayed on the sidelines because of the lack of progress toward a resolution of the budget and debt crisis.

Lawmakers have until Oct. 17 to agree to extend the $16.7 trillion U.S. borrowing limit or the country will risk an unprecedented debt default.

The Toronto Stock Exchange composite rose 39.35 points or 0.3 percent to 12,931.46

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 133.25 points, or 0.87 percent, at 15,168.01.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was down 12.08 points, or 0.71 percent, at 1,698.06.

The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 21.26 points, or 0.56 percent, at 3,794.01.

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