Canola closes in on $500 but drier forecast could stall rally

Canola closed higher again Tuesday on a day when most other crop futures were down or little changed.

The question now is: will the premium in canola start to roll back if the drier weather in the forecast allows harvest to resume?

The forecast shows a turn toward sunnier days and a gradual warming, although still below normal.

A much higher than normal amount of crop remains in the field after rain and snow halted harvest for about two weeks.

The November contract is now only a few dollars shy of the $500 a tonne mark and January contract is over that level. It is the highest price since the end of June.

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Those needing to sell canola might want to consider whether this is a pricing opportunity.

Today’s gain was only modest and there was no support from competing oilseeds.

CBOT December soyoil hit its highest since April overnight but then retreated a little, weighed down by a two percent fall in Malaysian palm oil, which earlier hit the highest levels in two and a half years before dropping sharply in profit taking and on concerns about weak export demand.

Profit taking was also a feature in U.S. wheat and soybean markets.

The USDA said the U.S. soybean harvest was 62 percent complete by Sunday, near the five-year average of 63 percent and in line with trade expectations.

The U.S. corn harvest was 46 percent complete as of Sunday, behind the five-year average of 49 percent and lagging trade expectations.

The U.S. winter wheat crop was 72 percent planted, near the five-year average of 73 percent but behind an average of trade expectations for 75 percent.

European crop watchers said conditions were not ideal for the newly seeded winter rapeseed crop. It was sown into dry soil and the emerging plants in some areas are weak.

Concerns about dry soil during Brazil’s soy seeding season will continue this week, but the long range forecast indicates rain in the last week of October.

The Weather Network in Canada has forecast a cold winter for the eastern Prairies and normal conditions for Alberta.

It has higher confidence for the cold weather in mid to late winter. The early winter could be more inconsistent.

It expects near normal snowfall across the prairies.

Strong gains in Netflix shares helped stock market indexes rise.

Canadian manufacturing sales in August jumped much more than expected.

The Toronto Stock Exchange composite rose 155.99 points or 1.07 percent to close at 14,752.51.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 75.47 points, or 0.42 percent, to 18,161.87, the S&P 500 gained 13.09 points, or 0.62 percent, to 2,139.59 and the Nasdaq Composite added 44.01 points, or 0.85 percent, to 5,243.84.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 35 cents to US$50.29 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US76.31 cents, up from 76.12 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3104.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2016 497.70 +1.60 +0.32%

Canola Jan 2017 504.10 +0.80 +0.16%

Canola Mar 2017 508.00 +1.90 +0.38%

Canola May 2017 510.70 +1.80 +0.35%

Canola Jul 2017 507.60 +0.70 +0.14%

Milling Wheat Dec 2016 231.00 -1.00 -0.43%

Milling Wheat Mar 2017 237.00 -1.00 -0.42%

Milling Wheat May 2017 241.00 -1.00 -0.41%

Durum Wheat Dec 2016 296.00 +2.00 +0.68%

Durum Wheat Mar 2017 302.00 -1.00 -0.33%

Durum Wheat May 2017 306.00 -2.00 -0.65%

Barley Dec 2016 132.50 unch 0.00%

Barley Mar 2017 134.50 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2017 135.50 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Nov 2016 972.50 -5.75 -0.59%

Soybeans Jan 2017 981.25 -4.75 -0.48%

Soybeans Mar 2017 987.50 -4.25 -0.43%

Soybeans May 2017 994.50 -4.00 -0.40%

Soybeans Jul 2017 1000.50 -3.75 -0.37%

Soybeans Aug 2017 999.50 -3.50 -0.35%

Soybean Meal Dec 2016 303.40 -0.10 -0.03%

Soybean Meal Jan 2017 304.80 unch 0.00%

Soybean Meal Mar 2017 306.30 -0.10 -0.03%

Soybean Oil Dec 2016 35.07 -0.37 -1.04%

Soybean Oil Jan 2017 35.33 -0.38 -1.06%

Soybean Oil Mar 2017 35.56 -0.38 -1.06%

Corn Dec 2016 353.75 -0.25 -0.07%

Corn Mar 2017 363.50 -0.50 -0.14%

Corn May 2017 370.25 -0.50 -0.13%

Corn Jul 2017 376.50 -0.50 -0.13%

Corn Sep 2017 383.25 unch 0.00%

Oats Dec 2016 203.75 +3.75 +1.88%

Oats Mar 2017 203.50 +1.75 +0.87%

Oats May 2017 205.25 +0.75 +0.37%

Oats Jul 2017 210.00 +1.75 +0.84%

Oats Sep 2017 219.00 +1.75 +0.81%

Wheat Dec 2016 420.00 -3.75 -0.88%

Wheat Mar 2017 440.00 -2.00 -0.45%

Wheat May 2017 454.00 -1.75 -0.38%

Wheat Jul 2017 465.50 -1.50 -0.32%

Wheat Sep 2017 479.75 -2.00 -0.42%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 2016 527.75 -1.25 -0.24%

Spring Wheat Mar 2017 532.25 -1.25 -0.23%

Spring Wheat May 2017 538.25 -1.50 -0.28%

Spring Wheat Jul 2017 545.50 -1.50 -0.27%

Spring Wheat Sep 2017 552.75 -1.00 -0.18%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016 421.75 -0.25 -0.06%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017 438.75 -0.25 -0.06%

Hard Red Wheat May 2017 450.00 unch 0.00%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 460.75 unch 0.00%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 475.75 +0.50 +0.11%

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)

Live Cattle (P) Oct 2016 97.75 +0.47 +0.48%

Live Cattle (P) Dec 2016 99.22 +0.22 +0.22%

Live Cattle (P) Feb 2017 100.62 -0.08 -0.08%

Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 2016 122.02 +0.32 +0.26%

Feeder Cattle (P) Nov 2016 118.02 +0.80 +0.68%

Feeder Cattle (P) Jan 2017 113.78 +0.25 +0.22%

Lean Hogs (P) Dec 2016 41.12 -0.48 -1.15%

Lean Hogs (P) Feb 2017 48.45 -0.47 -0.96%

Lean Hogs (P) Apr 2017 56.32 -0.76 -1.33%

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