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Canola closes higher Friday but posts weekly loss

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Published: June 15, 2012

Canola staged a late rally and closed about one percent higher while U.S. crop futures were generally down on market anxiety over the Sunday vote in Greece and weak U.S. economy.

July closed at $601.90, up $5.70.

November closed at $559.70, up $5.20.

For the week, July is down $13.10 and November is down $15.70.

Trade was light as investors stayed on the sidelines in advance of the Greek vote, which will likely determine whether that country stays in the euro zone.

Canola was supported by thoughts that Thursday’s fall was overdone and by new commercial buying. A lack of producer selling kept hedge pressure light.

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Canadian crop production revised mostly higher from August

Canadian grain and oilseed production in 2025/26 was likely larger than earlier expectations, as warm temperatures and increased precipitation across the Prairies in August helped crop development, according to updated estimates from Statistics Canada released Sept. 17.

Crop conditions in Western Canada are generally considered good, although excess moisture is becoming a problem in some areas. There is a good chance of rain each day from Sunday to Wednesday for wide areas of the Prairies.

• Analysts Informa released a report on its U.S. acreage estimates. Traders say Informa pegged corn area at 96.8 million acres, up from 96.1 million in its last report. USDA’s forecast is 95.9

It put soybean acres at 76 million, up from 75.8 million in its last report and USDA’s projection of 73.9 million.

It kept spring wheat acres steady at 13.5 million.

• The wheat market had early strength from a downgrade in China’s estimate of its wheat crop. The winter wheat crop, that provides about 95 percent of China’s wheat production, is now pegged at 111.7 million tonnes, down from 114 million in the previous forecast. Wet weather and disease are causing the reduction and also lowering the quality of the crop. The forecast was still 0.8 percent larger than last year.

U.S. traders believe the crop problems might cause China to import up to five million tonnes of wheat this season, double the current forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and up from the three million tonnes imported in 2011-12.

• Partly offsetting that news was improving weather in Western Europe that is helping yields rise. Also, the wheat market is under pressure from the U.S. winter wheat harvest.

• The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association said members crushed 99,181 tonnes of canola in the week ending June 13, up about 32 percent from the week before.

That represents a crush capacity of about 60 percent, up from 45 percent last week but still down from the average for the year so far of 87.5 percent.

• Stock markets rose on the hope that the deteriorating economic picture will force central banks to implement stimulus measures.

Winnipeg (per tonne)

Canola Jul 12  $601.90, up $5.70       +0.96%

Canola Nov 12  $559.70, up $5.20       +0.94%

Canola Jan 13  $563.70, up $5.20       +0.93%

Canola Mar 13  $567.30, up $5.20       +0.93%

The best basis the previous day in the par region was $14 over the July contract, said ICE Futures Canada.

The 14-day relative strength index was 44.

Western Barley Jul 12  $237.00, unchanged

Western Barley Oct 12  $210.00, unchanged

Milling Wheat Oct 12  $252.70, unchanged

Milling Wheat Dec 12  $260.00, unchanged

Milling Wheat Mar 13  $269.00, unchanged

Durum Wheat Oct 12  $275.50, unchanged

Durum Wheat Dec 12  $280.00, unchanged

Durum Wheat Mar 13  $286.60, unchanged

Barley Oct 12  $183.00, unchanged

Barley Dec 12  $185.70, unchanged

Barley Mar 13  $188.70, unchanged

Chicago (per bushel)

Soybeans (P) Jul 12  $13.76, down 10.0 cents       -0.72%

Soybeans (P) Aug 12  $13.57, down 6.75       -0.49%

Soybeans (P) Sep 12  $13.32, down 2.25  -0.17%

Soybeans (P) Nov 12  $13.14, up 5.25  +0.40%

Corn (P) Jul 12  $5.795, down 22.0       -3.66%

Corn (P) Sep 12  $5.095, down 11.25  -2.16%

Corn (P) Dec 12  $5.06, down 10.0       -1.94%

Oats (P) Jul 12  $3.0775, up 2.0       +0.65%

Oats (P) Sep 12  $2.9375, down 3.75       -1.26%

Oats (P) Dec 12  $2.7925, down 4.75       -1.67%

Minneapolis (per bushel)

Spring Wheat Jul 12  $7.875, down 6.75 cents       -0.85%

Spring Wheat Sep 12  $7.405, down 14.25  -1.89%

Spring Wheat Dec 12  $7.4525, down 14.25  -1.88%

Nearby light crude oil in New York closed at $84.03, up 12 cents.

The Bank of Canada noon rate for the Canadian dollar was 97.62 cents US, up slightly from 97.59 the previous day.

The U.S. dollar was $1.0244 Cdn.

In early tallies:

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index was up 57.65 points, or 0.5 percent, at 11,524.07.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 98.54 points, or 0.78 percent, to 12,750.45.

The S&P 500 Index gained 11.32 points, or 0.85 percent, to 1,340.42.

The Nasdaq Composite added 31.21 points, or 1.10 percent, to 2,867.54

For the week, the TSX rose 0.2 percent, the Dow was up 1.7 percent, the S&P 500 rose 1.3 percent and Nasdaq rose 0.5 percent.

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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