Canola closes down as loonie rises

Canola fell slightly Tuesday, as the loonie rose but generally there was little movement in grain markets.

In the U.S. market, corn and wheat settled lower but soybeans edged up a little on new sales to China.

November canola closed at $621.40, down $7.20.

There was nothing in the way of substantial new news to trade on. Some traders are leery of further bullish action, as they remember the wind down of markets in the fall of 2011.

• However, German oilseed analysts Oil World remains bullish. In its weekly report it said the unprecedented shortage of soybeans means further rallies are possible to ration demand, although there will also be periodic pullbacks on profit taking.

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Oil World repeated its expectation that China will be forced to reduce its soybean imports in the fall and early winter and will likely expand its imports of Canadian canola in that period.

Oil World expects that relief will come in the first half of 2013 from a bumper South American soybean crop. If it gets good weather, production in South America could climb to 152 million tonnes, up from the drought-reduced 116 million in the past year.

• Forecasts indicate that the southern U.S. Midwest and Central Plains should get good rainfall from tropical storm Isaac in the middle of this week. That will help set up the winter wheat crop seeding season.

• Investors speculated on what might be in a speech Friday by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

He is speaking at a central bankers’ conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The central question is whether, and if so when, the Fed will launch a third round of bond buying, or quantitative easing to stimulate the economy.

Winnipeg (per tonne)

Canola Nov 12 $621.40, down $7.20 -1.15%

Canola Jan 13 $625.50, down $7.30 -1.15%

Canola Mar 13 $625.30, down $7.30 -1.15%

Canola May 13 $612.60, down $7.50 -1.21%

Milling Wheat Oct 12 $295.20, down $0.50 -0.17%

Milling Wheat Dec 12 $300.00, down $0.50 -0.17%

Milling Wheat Mar 13 $309.90, down $0.50 -0.16%

Durum Wheat Oct 12 $300.50, down $0.60 -0.20%

Durum Wheat Dec 12 $305.00, down $0.60 -0.20%

Durum Wheat Mar 13 $311.60, down $0.60 -0.19%

Barley Oct 12 $264.50, unchanged