Canola closes at $500, market positions ahead of USDA report

Canola futures edged slightly higher Tuesday, but lagged behind soybeans for a second day.

March soybeans gained 0.85 percent on Tuesday while canola climbed on 0.16 percent, but closed smack dab on the emotionally important $500 a tonne mark.

Markets were positioning ahead of the USDA’s monthly supply and demand report on Thursday. The USDA will also issue its first survey of U.S. winter wheat seeded area.

Wheat and corn futures were little changed today.

WEATHER

There are forecasts for showers across dry areas of the U.S. plains this weekend. That will be welcome for stressed crops, but will weigh down wheat futures.

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Also, the feared damage from recent cold weather in eastern Europe and Ukraine failed to materialize because snow accompanied the freezing temperatures, providing a protective blanket against damage to the growing node.

WINTER WHEAT FORECAST

A Reuters trade survey shows an expectation of 34.139 million acres of U.S. winter wheat, down 5.5 percent from 36.137 million last year.

The range is 31.7 to 36.38 million acres.

The average of the survey for hard red winter wheat was 24.954 million acres, down six percent.

BRAZIL SEES BIG CROP

Brazil’s government forecaster Conab today forecast the soybean crop at 103.8 million tonnes, up from 102.45 million in its December forecast. Last year it produced 95.4 million tonnes when dry weather late in the season constricted yields.

Some areas of northeastern Brazil could use rain but overall conditions are good.

Some areas of Argentina have struggled with excess rain, but this week drier weather is dominating. However, more rain is in the forecast in the coming couple of weeks.

OIL FALLS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down $1.14 to US$50.82 per barrel. The second big decline in two days comes as doubts rose over whether all OPEC members will carry through on reducing production. Saudi Arabia appears to be carrying through on its commitments but Iraq, the bloc’s second largest producer said it would raise exports from its main point to a record high in February.

Also North American production could expand more than expected as U.S. and Canadian producers add to the number of active drilling rigs.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US75.71 cents, edging up from 75.63 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3208.

Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 37.33 points, or 0.24 percent, at 15,426.28.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 31.85 points, or 0.16 percent, to 19,855.53, the S&P 500 was unchanged at 2,268.9 and the Nasdaq Composite added 20 points, or 0.36 percent, to 5,551.82.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Mar 2017 500.00 +0.80 +0.16%

Canola May 2017 506.70 +0.80 +0.16%

Canola Jul 2017 509.90 -0.40 -0.08%

Canola Nov 2017 489.90 unch 0.00%

Canola Jan 2018 491.70 +0.40 +0.08%

Milling Wheat Mar 2017 239.00 -1.00 -0.42%

Milling Wheat May 2017 240.00 -2.00 -0.83%

Milling Wheat Jul 2017 238.00 -3.00 -1.24%

Durum Wheat Mar 2017 317.00 -1.00 -0.31%

Durum Wheat May 2017 320.00 -1.00 -0.31%

Durum Wheat Jul 2017 323.00 -3.00 -0.92%

Barley Mar 2017 142.00 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2017 144.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2017 145.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Jan 2017 1005.50 +9.00 +0.90%

Soybeans Mar 2017 1013.75 +8.50 +0.85%

Soybeans May 2017 1022.75 +8.50 +0.84%

Soybeans Jul 2017 1029.75 +8.00 +0.78%

Soybeans Aug 2017 1028.00 +7.75 +0.76%

Soybeans Sep 2017 1013.00 +7.00 +0.70%

Soybean Meal Jan 2017 313.40 +3.60 +1.16%

Soybean Meal Mar 2017 317.50 +3.60 +1.15%

Soybean Meal May 2017 320.10 +3.40 +1.07%

Soybean Oil Jan 2017 35.43 +0.16 +0.45%

Soybean Oil Mar 2017 35.64 +0.15 +0.42%

Soybean Oil May 2017 35.89 +0.15 +0.42%

Corn Mar 2017 358.25 -1.75 -0.49%

Corn May 2017 365.25 -1.75 -0.48%

Corn Jul 2017 372.50 -1.50 -0.40%

Corn Sep 2017 379.00 -1.25 -0.33%

Corn Dec 2017 386.50 -1.00 -0.26%

Oats Mar 2017 226.50 +1.00 +0.44%

Oats May 2017 224.75 -0.25 -0.11%

Oats Jul 2017 224.75 unch 0.00%

Oats Sep 2017 226.25 unch 0.00%

Oats Dec 2017 228.50 unch 0.00%

Wheat Mar 2017 426.75 -0.50 -0.12%

Wheat May 2017 439.75 -0.25 -0.06%

Wheat Jul 2017 454.25 +0.25 +0.06%

Wheat Sep 2017 467.25 +0.50 +0.11%

Wheat Dec 2017 482.50 +0.50 +0.10%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 2017 561.25 +1.50 +0.27%

Spring Wheat May 2017 552.00 -1.50 -0.27%

Spring Wheat Jul 2017 548.50 -2.25 -0.41%

Spring Wheat Sep 2017 550.00 -3.25 -0.59%

Spring Wheat Dec 2017 556.75 -3.00 -0.54%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017 438.25 -0.25 -0.06%

Hard Red Wheat May 2017 450.00 -0.25 -0.06%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 461.25 -0.50 -0.11%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 475.50 -0.25 -0.05%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017 494.25 +0.50 +0.10%

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)

Live Cattle (P) Feb 2017 119.52 +2.99 +2.57%

Live Cattle (P) Apr 2017 118.68 +2.71 +2.34%

Live Cattle (P) Jun 2017 107.85 +2.55 +2.42%

Feeder Cattle (P) Jan 2017 132.70 +3.42 +2.65%

Feeder Cattle (P) Mar 2017 130.00 +4.50 +3.59%

Feeder Cattle (P) Apr 2017 129.55 +4.45 +3.56%

Lean Hogs (P) Feb 2017 65.05 +1.30 +2.04%

Lean Hogs (P) Apr 2017 69.32 +0.94 +1.37%

Lean Hogs (P) May 2017 74.42 +0.57 +0.77%

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